BCS: Who's Number Two?

Week 12 BCS Standings (11 Nov 2013)

Rank     Team           BCS Avg

#1         Alabama      0.9958

#2         Florida St    0.9619

#3         Ohio State   0.8926

#4         Stanford*    0.8689

#5         Baylor         0.8618

*Only team listed above with a loss (to Utah)

The top 5 of the BCS are shown above. As long as all hell doesn't break loose, which has happened recently (see 2007), these are the teams with a viable chance at playing for the National Championship this year. Remember, this is the last year for the current BCS format, in which the top 2 teams play for the title. A more detailed list of teams and poll breakdown in the current BCS standings can be found here (note: the Week 12 standings are discussed in this post).

The Case for #2

First thing is first: there probably won't be much argument around the country about who deserves to be ranked #1 in the BCS. Alabama is the two-time defending champion. They are playing very good football right now, fresh off a dominant performance against LSU, pulling away in the second half. But who is #2? I'll make the case for the Buckeyes:

I've been tough on the Buckeye's defense this year. I've written more than a few times how the OSU defense was not playing like a top 10 unit, and how it would have to improve for OSU to live up to the preseason hype. Even though the competition has been sub-par of late, the defense has gotten better. Combined with the potent offense and examining the other undefeated teams vying for the #2 spot, OSU is well rounded enough to earn the second spot in the title game.

I'm taking Stanford out of (my) discussion right off the bat. Yes, they beat Oregon (Thanks, by the way!). However, this does not erase the loss to Utah. Especially, if the other currently undefeated teams win out and win their conferences. Double especially if they have to play a conference championship game to do it (sorry Baylor). 

Another common criticism against the Buckeyes is their strength of schedule (SOS). That's a fair point. The Big Ten is experiencing another down year and isn't highly looked upon right now. However, to use that argument solely against OSU would be an oversight. If you are going to bring up SOS, look it up for everyone. According to the Sagarin Rankings (which is used for the computer component in the BCS rankings), the Buckeyes have 81st best SOS (there are 120 teams in the FBS). Not good. However, the rest of the undefeated teams in the top 5 aren't that impressive either: Alabama-42, Florida St-62, Baylor-96. Not exactly impressive all the way around. Particular among the teams vying for the #2 spot... there is not enough of a differentiator here.

How about big wins? Florida St has wins over then-ranked #3 Clemson and #7 Miami. The Buckeyes have wins over then-ranked #23 Wisconsin and #16 Northwestern. Although, NW has tanked since, the Badgers look to be improving since playing OSU. Baylor has defeated then-ranked #10 Oklahoma. Up coming games: FSU has Flordia the ACC title game. OSU will play at michigan and probably Michigan St in the Big Ten Championship Game. Baylor has Oklahoma State and Texas on the schedule.

I do not see any legitimate, compelling, overwhelming evidence that any of these three teams should be decisively ranked #2 over the others. Right now, it's based solely on perception. The Big Ten is perceived to be down, so that hurts the Buckeyes chances. Not many pollsters bought into Baylor early on, so they are suffering from beginning the season ranked lower than OSU and FSU. Florida St has a few flashy wins on a big stage, which has them as the solid, nearly-undisputed #2 team right now. I respect those who have the opinion that FSU is #2, however, I strongly disagree at the suggestion that it's a slam dunk. One thing in the Buckeye's favor is, in my opinion, the winning streak dating back to last year. Yes, you have to be careful when factoring in last year's performance into this season, but answer this: Do you think the fact that Alabama being ranked undisputed #1 has anything to do with the fact that it is the two-time defending champion? Is part of the Big Ten's perception problems last year's bowl performance? I believe the answer to these question is, to some degree, yes. Therefore, why not consider (if even a small fraction in the total decision) that fact that the Buckeyes have been tested for the past two years, and if OSU finishes undefeated this year, they will be 25-0. 

BCS Prediction

What is going happen in the last month of the season? There is a lot of football to be played, a lot of losses to be dealt. I believe that we will have two undefeated teams at the end of the year. Here's my (somewhat?) bold prediction: Alabama loses one game, either to Auburn or in the SEC title game. Baylor will lose at least one game. Stanford--even though at of my discussion cannot be discounted in the BCS--will lose at least one game. Ohio State and Florida St, the only undefeated teams left, will play for the National Championship.

Final Irony

One last thing to keep in mind: Who should Buckeye fans be rooting against? Obviously, both teams ranked above OSU (Alabama and FSU). But what about Stanford and Baylor? Conventional wisdom might be to root against both of those teams as well, but let's take a closer look.

If you've ever watched a race (whether is NASCAR or what ever your preference), the best thing for your favorite driver nearing the end of the race when he has the lead is the two guys behind him jockeying for second. Neither of the runner-up drivers can run the line they'd prefer to on the track, and the guy in first pulls away from the pack.

Well, that's the situation right now for #4 Stanford and #5 Baylor. Baylor is favored in the human polls, while Stanford is favored above Baylor in the computers. If Baylor were to lose, one would assume that the voters (who put Stanford #5 and Baylor #4) would then vote Stanford #4, thus giving them a better human poll component in the BCS average. How much better? If you simply give Stanford the human poll values that Baylor is receiving right now at #4, then Stanford's overall BCS avg rises to 0.8918, just eight-thousandths shy of OSU. Too close for comfort, if you ask me.

Ohio State fans would rather both lose (obviously). But if they won't both lose, then they need Baylor and Stanford to jockey for position. Split the points up among two teams, rather than let one retain them all (particularly Stanford, who at the time of this post is better positioned to creep up on the Buckeyes).