Saturday, October 12, 2013

Football Blitz III

The Buckeyes
Ohio State pulled out two high-quality wins since the last Football Blitz. First, a 31-24 victory at home over #23 Wisconsin, and then a 40-30 win at #16 Northwestern. While these two teams are quality opponents, I am still less than impressed with OSU's secondary. Sure, against Wisconsin the defensive game plan was to take away the ground game. However, all too often, the Badger's QB found WR Jared Abbrederis (or as many us of know him better as Wisc's #4) wide open for an easy 10, 20, plus game to keep the drive going. Northwestern also had success moving the ball against the Buckeyes' defense. I was very happy to here Meyer comment on the soft coverage and admit that it was something that was going to be worked on during the bye week. Ohio State's next real tough test will be at michigan, but don't write off Penn St (ever) or Purdue (see 1-5 Purdue, 2009).

Despite being critical of the defense, I was impressed with the Buckeyes' previous two wins. Unlike many, I was concerned about the tough road test Northwestern would pose. Going back-to-back night game wins against Wisconsin and at Northwestern with Braxton Miller returning to the lineup gives me confidence that this team can pull out close wins against the elite in the Big Ten. However, the defense will need to improve a decent amount to be able to pull out close games against the elite schools in the nation.

Revisiting NFL Pre-Season Picks
We are a little over a quarter (through Week 5) into the season, so let's how my pre-season picks compare to the current NFL standings. This week, we'll take a look at the AFC:

AFC North (2013 Week 5 Standings)      AFC North (Picks)
Baltimore  (3-2)                                        Cincinnati      
Cleveland (3-2)                                         Baltimore    
Cincinnati (3-2)                                         Pittsburgh    
Pittsburgh (0-4)                                         Cleveland

To be honest, I don't know what to make of this division. Baltimore has predictably taken a step back, but now that they seem to have remembered their stud Ray Rice, their offense is improving. Andy Dalton has yet to turn the corner for the Bengals. I still believe Cincinnati has a good chance to make the playoffs, but I'm not sure it's going to come from winning the AFC North. Cleveland, in my mind, is out playing itself. I think the Browns are in for a let down during the six weeks, based on their upcoming schedule. As far as the Steelers, I'm feeling pretty confident about my 3rd place pick for them. I believe I needed a bad start from the Steeler to spot Cincy a few games in order for the Steelers to actually finish 3rd in the division. I don't see it being a problem for Pittsburgh to finish the season ahead of the  Browns, I just hope they don't surpass the Bengals at some point.

AFC East (2013 Week 5 Standings)      AFC East (Picks)
New England (4-1)                                 New England
Miami (3-2)                                            Miami
NY Jets (3-2)                                         Buffalo
Buffalo (2-3)                                           NY Jets

No surprise at the top in this division, except for maybe that the Patriots were beat by Cincy AND Tom Brady's TD streak came to an end! Although, you have to give New England credit, they are getting by pretty well with a lack of their offensive firepower they've enjoyed the last couple of seasons. I don't think Miami will have too much trouble holding on to the 2nd spot as the season progresses. The Jets are not as good as their record indicates. Overall, I'm feeling pretty good about this division panning out fairly close to how I've called it.

AFC South (2013 Week 5 Standings)      AFC South (Picks)
Indianapolis (4-1)                                      Indianpolis
Tennessee (3-2)                                        Houston
Houston (2-3)                                           Tennessee
Jacksonville (0-5)                                     Jacksonville

There's been a lot of talk in Houston regarding Schaub at QB. Is he still the guy? I believe he is for the remainder of the year. I think it would be a mistake replace him, unless they can sign another big name. I don't see Yates faring any better. In the meantime, Indy is looking good atop this division with two solid wins against SF and Seattle. And Jacksonville has the rest of the NFL talking retraction.

AFC West (2013 Week 5 Standings)      AFC West (Picks)
Denver (5-0)                                           Denver
Kansas City (5-0)                                   Kansas City
Oakland (2-3)                                         San Diego
San Diego (2-3)                                      Oakland

Let's state the obvious: Denver looks great. I do wonder about their defense. While P. Manning is basically having his way on offense, the Bronco's defense surrendered 48 points to Dallas in Week 5. Kansas City has surprised me. I picked them to finish 2nd in this division, but that was because of a lack of confidence in the other teams, not due to the fact that I felt the Chiefs would look so good. As far as San Diego and Oakland... I think it all depends on how the QBs fare during the bulk of the season. If Philips can play as he was once expected, the Chargers could make a run at 2nd place in the West. And if Pryor can develop into a solid pro quarterback, the Raiders might not be too far away either.




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