Saturday, October 19, 2013

Football Blitz IV


NCAAF Playoff Committee
The NCAA Football playoff committee was announced recently. The committee will be comprised of 13 members and will be chaired by Arkansas athletic director Jeff Long. You can review the rest of members here, but a few notables are Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez, former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former Nebraska coach/AD Tom Osborne and football royalty Archie Manning. 

Their mission is supposedly simple: to determine the best four teams in college football. To me, however, this is a flawed premise. We should be looking for the four most deserving teams in college football. There is a big difference, in my opinion, between "best" and "most deserving". "Best" is fairly subjective. Many people would believe that a one-loss Alabama team (that did not win the SEC) would be better than an undefeated Big Ten, Big 12, PAC 12, or ACC champion... and they may be right, and I might agree. However, the more deserving team would be a major conference champion that ran the table. Luckily, there are four playoffs spots, so both teams would be get, but you can imagine a scenario in which a two-loss, non-SEC-championship Alabama would be compared to a one-loss Big Ten Champion for the fourth spot. Who gets in now? Who is better? Very subjective. Who is more deserving? That could be tough to determine objectively, but you would at least have some objective measures to helping you decide, such as: Winning your conference, strength of schedule, etc. 

Another scary thing is that some on the committee eluded to the fact that they would factor in injuries into their decision. If a team was left out of the playoff solely due to an injury (i.e., that team would have been included if a key player was healthy), that would be a travesty. A team should be judged on its body of work, not how the committee thinks the team will perform with or without a key player.

The committee will also select teams for the Cotton, Fiesta, and Chick-fil-A bowls, and rank the champion of the non-Power conferences, which will receive a spot in one of the six major bowls.



Revisiting NFL Pre-Season Picks
After six weeks into the season, so let's how my pre-season picks compare to the current NFL standings. This time, we'll take a look at the NFC:

NFC North (2013 Week 6 Standings)      NFC North (Picks)
Detroit (4-2)                                               Green Bay
Chicago (4-2)                                             Chicago
Green Bay (3-2)                                         Detroit
Minnesota (1-4)                                          Minnesota

This division is fairly tight among the top 3, but I would be surprised if my pick in Green Bay did not win the division. Even though the Packers offensive line is terrible and they have suffered some injuries in their skill positions, I believe Aaron Rodgers can lead  his team to a division championship. The ground game is also improving in Green Bay, which will take some of the pressure off of Rodgers. Don't get me wrong, Detroit and Chicago both a reasonable chance to win the division, but I expect GB to finish stronger than these two.

NFC East (2013 Week 6 Standings)      NFC East (Picks)
Dallas (3-3)                                               Washington
Philadelphia (3-3)                                      Dallas
Washington (1-4)                                      NY Giants
NY Giants (0-6)                                        Philadelphia

Wow. Not what I expected after the first six weeks. Even though I did pick the Giants to finish 3rd in the NFC East, I did not expect them to look this poorly. The Giants performance is really inexplicable. The pieces from last year have not changed significantly, yet the offense and defense both look more dis-functional than the Jets! The Redskins have not looked good, but keep in mind RG3 did not play in the preseason. Can he turn the season around, or have we seen a new, post-injury RG3? Dallas, once again, seems to be a legitimate contender if they keep from shooting themselves in the foot. I would describe the Eagles as opportunistic. I don't believe they are the second best team in the division, but they are taking advantage of the poor showing in the first six weeks of the season by the entire division. Dallas and Philadelphia play a huge division game in Week 7.

NFC South (2013 Week 6 Standings)      NFC South (Picks)
New Orleans (5-1)                                     New Orleans
Carolina (2-3)                                            Atlanta
Atlanta (1-4)                                              Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay (0-5)                                       Carolina

I'm not shocked in the least by how well the Saints are playing. They are currently comfortably in the driver's seat of the NFC South. I expected that Atlanta would be in close contention for the division, however, the Falcons have been anything but impressive. Given that Carolina isn't exactly setting the world on fire either, I still have confidence (and the belief) that Atlanta will finish second in the South. However, I do have serious doubts regarding Atlanta making the playoffs (recall I picked Atlanta for a wildcard spot). By the way, somebody tell Tampa Bay that the season has started...

NFC West (2013 Week 6 Standings)      NFC West (Picks)
Seattle (5-1)                                               San Francisco
San Francisco (4-2)                                    Seattle
St. Louis (3-3)                                            Arizona
Arizona (3-3)                                             St. Louis

If I had the chance to reorder my picks in the NFC West, I would switch the order of the top 2 teams. I don't think Seattle is leaps and bounds better than San Francisco, and I would not be surprised in the least if SF ends up winning this division, but Seattle has looked much more impressive so far. Seattle beat SF pretty handily at home (29-3), and lost a close one to Indy (28-34) on the road. The 49ers also lost to Indy, but that game was played in SF and wasn't pretty (7-27). St. Louis and Arizona both are two teams in no man's land. They aren't great, but they aren't terrible. It's a coin flip to see how then end up in the bottom of this division.

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