NCAAF 2023 Rankings after Week 14

   NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 14, 3 DEC 2023

(Delta Calc'd from Week 13, 26 NOV 2023)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

• Washington jumps michigan to the #1 spot after defeating #9 Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship game (and for the second time this season). michigan remains solidly in the top 4 at #2 after winning the B1G championship
• The SEC Champions Alabama climb to #3 (narrowly behind michigan).
• Florida State makes it to the Top 4 after defeating #16 Louisville in the ACC championship
• Big 12 champion Texas is outside the top 4 at #6

College Football Playoff Committee thoughts:

• It will be interesting to see the CFP rankings. There are a couple different methodologies one can use to rank team: most deserving team vs best teams. 
• Note: my rankings reflect most deserving. My rankings are an objective measure of accomplishment. However, an objective measure of  accomplishment must be the first (and perhaps most important) input into determining the BEST four teams.

What will the committe do? They certainly have an interesting decision.

• Washington and michigan are in without a doubt. Undefeated champions of the PAC-12 and B1G, respectively.
• Can they leave out FSU?
• I know it sounds crazy to omit an undefeated power 5 conference champion. However, FSU hasn't looked like a top 4 team since losing their star QB. The committee has stated before they will take that into account. Even with that said... I believe it would be very hard to leave FSU out. So, let's assume for the sake of discussion, that FSU is in.
• That leaves 3 teams vying for the last spot:
• one-loss Big-12 Champion Texas
• one-loss SEC champion Alabama
• one-loss SEC runner-up Georgia
• Can you justify Georgia getting the last spot, over an Alabama team that just beat them in the SEC championship? I don't think so.
• Can you justify an Alabama team after Texas beat them by double-digits earlier in the season? I don't think so.
• Are we looking at a scenario where the SEC is left out of the playoff?
• It certainly seems logical, if you value on-the-field head-to-head results.
• However, we've seen the committee overlook head-to-head results. 
• Therefore, I believe the CFP committee's top 4 will be: Washington, michigan, FSU, Alabama.
• My CFP playoff teams would be: Washington, michigan, FSU, Texas.

NCAAF Rankings after Week 13

  NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 13, 26 NOV 2023

(Delta Calc'd from Week 12, 19 NOV 2023)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

• michigan jumps 3 spots to #1 after their victory over #7 Ohio State
• #2 Washington and #3 Georgia are not far behind. I suspect if all of the favorites win their conference championships next week, Georgia will retake the #1 spot (having the highest ranked opponent: #4 Alabama)
• Oregon finally cracks the top 10, coming in at #8 after defeating #30 Oregon State.
• Below are the matchup for some of the conference championships:
• ACC: #5 Florida St v #16 Louisville
• B12: #6 Texas v #20 Oklahoma St
• B1G: #1 michigan v #15 Iowa
• PAC: #2 Washington v #8 Oregon
• SEC: #3 Georgia v #4 Alabama

NCAAF 2023 Rankings after Week 12

 NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 12, 19 NOV 2023

(Delta Calc'd from Week 11, 12 NOV 2023)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

• The top 3 remain the same: #1 Washington, #2 Georgia, #3 Ohio State. Georgia closes the gap on Washington, pulling within 0.40 points, however both pull away from the field a little bit more.
• michigan jumps 2 places to the #4 spot. Both teams michigan jumped (#5 Alabama and #6 Florida St) played Div I-AA opponents, so they did not get as much rating benefit as michigan beating #55 Maryland.
• Penn St climbs back into the Top 10 at #9 after beating #42 Rutgers.
• #11 Oregon (loved by the human polls) falls out of the top 10 after defeating #93 Arizona St.
• The biggest match-up by far for next week's Rivarly Week is #3 Ohio State v #4 michigan

NCAAF 2022 Rankings after Week 14

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 14, 4 DEC 2022

(Delta Calc'd from Week 13, 28 NOV 2022)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• My top 4 teams after conference championships are:
• #1 Georgia
• #2 michigan
• #3 TCU
• #4 Tennessee
• Just behind the top 4 are
• #5 Ohio State
• #6 Kansas St
• Georgia is far and away the top rated team. At 144.59, this is one of the highest rated teams I've had entering the playoffs
• TCU remains in the top 4, only dropping one spot after losing to #6 Kansas St.
• Tennessee ranked above Ohio State to get into my top 4 might surprise you. However, despite its two losses, Tennessee has objectively achieved ever slightly more than Ohio State this season. Ohio State is not helped by the Big Ten as a whole having a down year and barely has two top-25 wins (with ND clinging to the top 25 at #23). Tennessee has three, and boasts at top 25 strength of schedule (OSU's isn't even in the top 50).
• My prediction for the CFP committee's top 4:
• #1 Georgia
• #2 michigan
• #3 TCU
• #4 Ohio State
• I think the committee will put Ohio State at #4 for two reasons, despite TCU's loss in the Big 12 championship game
• They will use it to send a message to Ohio State that they literally backed into the playoffs and aren't thrilled about including them, but must because... who else could you justify? (they can't justify Tennessee, because they (biasedly) had Alabama ranked above them last week, and neither one of them played).
• They are afraid to have a Big Ten rematch so soon in the semifinals. I wouldn't be surprised if the CFP committee has received phone calls from michigan people asking for them to avoid the rematch. michigan has little to gain from a rematch and everything to lose. If they win... yea they should have... they just beat OSU in Ohio Stadium. If they lose... it someone negates their previous victory and sends them home.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 2 
• Big 12: 2 // 2
• Big Ten: 2 // 3
• Pac 12: 2 // 6
• SEC: 3 // 8

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2022 Rankings after Week 13

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 13, 28 NOV 2022

(Delta Calc'd from Week 12, 21 NOV 2022)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Ohio State falls 3 spots to #6 after losing to #3 michigan, who jumped up 1 spot. With the win, michigan closes the gap substantially to the top 2 (Georgia and TCU)
• USC climbs into the top 5 after defeating #22 Notre Dame
• LSU falls to 10th after losing to #63 Texas A&M
• Penn St climbs back into the top 10 with a win over #63 Michigan St.
• Conference Championship match-ups:
• ACC: #12 Clemson v #28 North Carolina
• Big 12: #2 TCU v #9 Kansas St
• Big Ten: Purdue v #3 michigan
• Pac 12: #5 USC v #13 Utah
• SEC: #1 Georgia v #10 LSU
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 0 // 2 
• Big 12: 2 // 4
• Big Ten: 3 // 3
• Pac 12: 1 // 6
• SEC: 4 // 8

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2022 Rankings after Week 12 Edit

 NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 12, 21 NOV 2022

(Delta Calc'd from Week 11, 15 NOV 2022)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• #3 Ohio State and #4 michigan set up for an epic matchup at the 'Shoe for The Game!
• Ohio State and michigan have the rivalry with the most top 5 match ups of all time
• michigan jumped #5 LSU after LSU defeated #92 UAB
• Tennessee falls 3 spots to #6 after losing to #27 South Carolina
• USC climbs to #7 after defeating #18 UCLA
• TCU remains at #2 after squeaking by #40 Baylor. I am still going to leave these comments from last week to remind us about human bias:
• It should be noted that several SEC-toting, ESPN commentators have bashed undefeated TCU, saying "this isn't the same Big 12 that they are dominating, and don't deserve a spot in the Top 4."
• This is objectively false, as you can see by my unbiased ratings. It's true that TCU doesn't have the Strength of Schedule (SoS) that many SEC teams do; however, they have accomplished more as an undefeated team than any 1-loss SEC team. As of now, before #4 Ohio State and #6 michigan play each other, TCU also has a better SoS than either of those teams... and there's no one arguing for an undefeated OSU or um to be left out of the playoffs
• This just points out the necessity of unbiased ratings (like mine) to ground human perception and biases.
• Alabama falls two spots to #9 after defeating Austin Peay. The teams near them just played and beat better opponents and were subsequently rewarded more for it.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 3 
• Big 12: 1 // 4
• Big Ten: 2 // 3
• Pac 12: 2 // 6
• SEC: 4 // 6

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2022 Rankings after Week 12

 NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 12, 21 NOV 2022

(Delta Calc'd from Week 11, 15 NOV 2022)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• #3 Ohio State and #4 michigan set up for an epic matchup at the 'Shoe for The Game!
• Ohio State and michigan have the rivalry with the most top 5 match ups of all time
• michigan jumped #5 LSU after LSU defeated #92 UAB
• Tennessee falls 3 spots to #6 after losing to #27 South Carolina
• USC climbs to #7 after defeating #18 UCLA
• TCU remains at #2 after squeaking by #40 Baylor. I am still going to leave these comments from last week to remind us about human bias:
• It should be noted that several SEC-toting, ESPN commentators have bashed undefeated TCU, saying "this isn't the same Big 12 that they are dominating, and don't deserve a spot in the Top 4."
• This is objectively false, as you can see by my unbiased ratings. It's true that TCU doesn't have the Strength of Schedule (SoS) that many SEC teams do; however, they have accomplished more as an undefeated team than any 1-loss SEC team. As of now, before #4 Ohio State and #6 michigan play each other, TCU also has a better SoS than either of those teams... and there's no one arguing for an undefeated OSU or um to be left out of the playoffs
• This just points out the necessity of unbiased ratings (like mine) to ground human perception and biases.
• Alabama falls two spots to #9 after defeating Austin Peay. The teams near them just played and beat better opponents and were subsequently rewarded more for it.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 3 
• Big 12: 1 // 4
• Big Ten: 2 // 3
• Pac 12: 2 // 6
• SEC: 4 // 6

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!