Thursday, August 29, 2013

Point/Counter-Point: Paying College Athletes

Hello everyone! This is the Watercooler's first Point/Counter-Point debate (P/CP), and the topic is: Paying College Athletes. Brian Boeke will join me for the opposing view point. The premise of this topic is simple. NCAA football and basketball make the universities gobs of money. Should college athletes get a slice of the pie?

Michael: In a word: No. College athletes should not be paid to play. I will argue that the athletes are already getting paid: full cost of tuition and meal plan. This is quite a substantial amount of reimbursement alone. Even at a relatively inexpensive in-state tuition would cost, at minimum, over $10,000. The athlete is able to get admitted into a place of higher education and get a free degree while participating in a sport they love. Many ordinary students struggle to gain admittance, pay tuition, and have large student loans to payback after graduating. I believe many people underestimate the true value the universities are providing to the student athletes. They are being allowed to showcase their talents to the professional sports world on an enormous platform that is college sports these days. They are given free education that will propel them into a successful, fruitful future if they take advantage of the education being provided.

One argument I absolutely cannot stand is this "if we give the athletes stipends, then they won't take bribes illegally from boosters." Really? Here's a case-in-point that destroys that argument. Johnny Manziel comes from a very well-off family (from oil money). Did that stop him from signing hundreds of memorabilia for a five-figure fee (by the way, five figures is peanuts to him and his family)? Nope. At this point, three memorabilia agents have already come forward and acknowledged paying Manziel for autographs.

I'll conclude by also arguing that this would create unintended consequences, as well as create an unfair recruiting environment. As far as the former, if you pay athletes from the moneymaking sports (football and men's basketball), then Title IX mandates that you must pay all other athletes at the university. Oh by the way, all other sports operate in the red, and are funded in part by the profit generated from football and men's basketball. Take away some of that profit by enforcing stipends to all athletes, and you end up with the universities able (or choosing) to fund less varsity sports, stripping many college athletes of the chance to play varsity sports. Also, bigger universities could afford to pay their student athletes more. This becomes a moot point if you set an NCAA limit, however, certain schools' would have an extremely large advantage as far as what their boosters could afford.


Brian: The question of paying athletes has been around a long time, and it will likely continue for years to come. It is a tough question. On one hand, you have some universities making tens of millions of dollars on sporting events and merchandise. This money could never come if the student athletes did not perform. One the other hand, most (not all) athletes are getting a free education. In addition, they receive a stipend for living expenses, intended to cover the “room and board” of college. In my opinion, athletes should not be paid via contracts or additional stipends similar to a professional, but they should be able to capitalize on their name and success if they are in a position to do so.

The big story in the news is the situation surrounding Johnny Manziel. He apparently signed hundreds of items at several signing sessions for which he was paid. This is a big no-no per the extensive NCAA rulebook. The last time I checked, we live in the United States of America. We are one of the most capitalistic countries in the world. We promote taking advantage of opportunities presented to us. I believe the fact the NCAA denies big time college athletes this right goes against a major tenant that makes this country so great.

The arguments against paying athletes make a lot of sense. Universities cannot afford to fund an athletic department in which the athletes are making some sort of an additional stipend. Yes, the football and basketball programs make millions for some schools, but very few others turn any sort of a profit. I cannot argue against this. I just think if an athlete has the skill level to achieve national recognition and create demand, they should be able to capitalize on it. If a school is selling jerseys with their number on it, they should get a cut. While they don’t have their name on it, it is clear the fans are buying those jerseys because of the player wearing it. Going back to Manziel, it is obvious people desired items with his signature. There should be no restrictions on him taking advantage of this opportunity. This trickles down Brianwas able to make a few bucks off a Big Ten championship ring and was punished for it. While I don’t condone this from a team perspective, I think he should have the opportunity to do this if he desires. Many more examples can be discussed here, but I think you get the point.

Hopefully I have been clear in my delineation between payment for participation and capitalization on fame. For some athletes, the college years are the high point of their athletic careers. The NCAA regulations do not allow them to capitalize on their fame, which can be very fleeting. I believe this is at odds with fundamental values of this country and should be changed.


Michael: You make some good points, Brian. I’m glad you draw a distinction between paying athletes as opposed to letting the players capitalize on their achievements. You are against the universities flat out paying them, but would support the latter. This is, in my mind, a lesser evil, but I’m afraid even that system could be unfairly manipulated. For example, let’s say a certain university (Oregon) has a strong tie to Nike, and Nike agrees to make loads of jerseys for a player to help that school recruit young athletes with the promise of making more money through jersey sales than he could elsewhere. Or, a university with power and rich boosters that could guarantee the purchasing of jerseys and selling of autographs.

Yes, this is the United States of America, land of opportunity. But unless you want college athletics to turn into which universities can flex their monetary powers to entice the greatest student athletes, let’s allow the athlete the opportunity to capitalize on their college success after their collegiate career.


Brian: Both the initial and rebuttal argument seems to give the feel that boosters don’t have a tremendous influence on recruiting, which is fundamentally flawed. Yes, Oregon does have strong ties with Nike because Phil Knight is an alumnus. If it were not for Oregon’s good fortune in having such a famous, prestigious, and most importantly, RICH alumnus, that program would not be anywhere near the national spotlight. Knight donates tens of millions of dollars a year to the university, much of that to aid the athletic department. Just look at their jerseys! I read Knight paid entirely for a new athlete tutoring center (estimated cost: $41.7 million). Most recently, he paid for a $68 million football performance center. Their new basketball stadium is called Michael Knight Arena, named after his son. Similar things go on at many major universities, which they use as a recruiting tool to attract the best athletes.

I don’t believe letting players capitalize on their success outside of the playing field will influence the recruiting situation any more than what boosters already do. No matter what way you slice it, there just is not parity in the recruiting scene. At least if the NCAA loosens the reigns a bit, players like Jason White, Eric Crouch, and Danny Wuerffel might be able to make a few bucks on the fame generated during their most successful athletic years.
 

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Jim Delany's Four Point Plan

Jim Delany (Big Ten Conference commissioner) recently spoke in front of the media and offered up several reforms he'd like to see instituted in the NCAA in the new future. I'll highlight them below and offer my take on each proposition.

1) Commitment to Education
While the subject of this point sounds fantastic and seems to be what college athletics is (or should be) founded upon, Delany's actual message here is quite different. He believes institutions should, without hesitation, reinstate athletes who drop out or turn professional prior to graduating, at no charge to the athlete. While I don't have a problem with this point in general, I do believe it undermines the original intent of college athleticism: Go to school, get a degree, and represent your school on the field/court/etc. By allowing athletes to return to school after dropping out or turning pro early without consequence, aren't we just exacerbating the problem? It seems like this idea would help encourage student-athletes to not finish their degree knowing they have a safety net to catch them. Especially in an era when the NCAA has graduation metrics that will result in post-season bans if a school hits a certain threshold of non-graduating student-athletes. Don't get me wrong, I'm all in favor Delany pitch here in a vacuum, but with the current rules set by the NCAA, I believe this could have adverse effects on universities.

2) Student-Athlete Schedule
Jim Delany emphasized reducing the student-athlete training time burden to allow the students to put more focus into their academic degrees. Currently, athletes are allowed to spend 20 hours per week training with their teams. Jim points out that more than 20 hours are accounted for when you factor in student-run "voluntary" workouts, and calls for coaches and athletic directors to change the philosophy and help regulate students' time.

3) First Year Option
Not too long ago, freshman were not eligible to play college contests... they had to wait until their second years to begin competing even though they were recruited right out of high school. Delany didn't exactly call for reinstating this rule, but he would like to see an option in which "at-risk" student-athletes could sit out their freshman year and get acclimated to college, focus on their studies, and be better prepared to handle academic work on top of their sport for the rest of their collegiate career, all without losing a year of eligibility. That sounds fine to me. It doesn't seem unreasonable for a kid to choose to wait a year to get his studies in order prior to beginning his athletic eligibility. But don't we already have that? Red-shirt?

4) Pay the Kids
Delany proposed to give the athletes a stipend "up to the cost of education." So, this would essentially be a paycheck to the students potentially as large as a year's worth of tuition. I'm not going to go off on this topic too much here (because I have a future blog post planned on this topic alone), but I will briefly summarize my point of view. I'm against paying the student-athletes. The universities are already providing them with a free education and a free platform to showcase their skills to the professional world. And to Jim's specific plan mentioned above, tuition costs vary from school to school, thus creating an unfair advantage to schools with higher tuition costs.


For more reading on Jim Delany's statements, check out the ESPN Big Ten Blog Post.

Friday, August 2, 2013

Introducing Michael's MLB Rankings


Check out the MLB rankings here, or click the "MLB Rankings" tab at the top of this blog.

Behind the Rankings
I don't want to get too in depth here into the details of the mathematics behind the ratings. So, I'll keep it relatively simple in this blog, and refer you to a reference where you can dig into it more if you'd like. I use a slightly modified version of Microsoft's TrueSkill ratings system. Why slightly modified? Two reasons: 1) Microsoft wouldn't elaborate on the complex details of competitions involving three or more competitors. 2) Microsoft would give the specific equations of the 'v' and 'w' functions (check the details in the reference if you care), so I had to curve fit.
 
Issue #2 isn't that big of a detail, my curve fit matches extremely close to their 'v' and 'w' function plots. Issue #1 doesn't effect head-to-head competitions, which cover the vast majority of sporting events, so this does not apply to my MLB rankings. For the curious readers out there, I devised a fairly accurate way of simulating their complex methods of three or more competitor events that tracks very closely with their results. With all that said, I'm satisfied with my Matlab version of the TrueSkill Rating system.
 
I think we can all agree that a team isn't always as good or as bad as their record. Strength of schedule matters. A team can have some very quality wins against a strong opponent, or an embarrassing loss against a poor opponent. From a 30,000 ft view, my MLB ratings (again, based on Microsoft's TrueSkill) measures each team based on the quality of opponent they compete against by tracking two parameters for each team: average skill (mu) and a measure of uncertainty of that skill (sigma). Many rating systems only track the "skill" term. By tracking both skill and uncertainty, you can converge to a more accurate representation of a player's (or team's) skill, with a smaller sample size. A team's opponent's skill, uncertainty, and outcome of the event effect that team's recalculated skill and uncertainty. The rating is generated from subtracting three times the uncertainty from the average skill (rating = mu - 3*sigma). This results in a 99% confidence that the team's skill is at or above that rating.
 
More details here if you are interested! Microsoft TrueSkill Rating
I'd also be happy to answer questions if you'd rather have someone translate that for you: Post your questions via email or comments on this post and I'll get back to you.
 
Current Rankings
(Note: This reflection of the current rankings is based on the posted rankings as of 29 July)
Check out the MLB rankings here, or click the "MLB Rankings" tab at the top of this blog.
 
Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, LA Dodgers, Boston, and Oakland are in the top 5 of my rankings as of 29 July 2013. The Dodgers have made a steady climb in the rankings in the last month. They have turned their season around remarkably. In the past 30 games, they have gone through a 7 game swing from the Arizona Diamondbacks to take the lead in the NL West. I have a pretty nifty post processing script that allows me to compare ratings and W-L record from any point that I have saved in the season. For the 29 July rankings, the deltas are calculated from the All-Star break, as noted at the top of the rankings. The Rays and Dodgers both have gone 9-2 since the break, while charging up my rankings. Pittsburgh dropped from the #1 spot to second while maintaining 6-6 record since the ASG.
 
A couple things to note to help you get acquainted with my rating system. Let's look at the Yankees and Diamondbacks:
 
13          NY Yankees( 55- 50)90.33(  4-  7)-0.85
14             Arizona( 54- 51)89.84(  4-  7)-2.07

Both teams went 4-7 since 13 July, but New York only dropped -0.85 points in the ratings while Arizona dropped -2.07. Why is this? Again, this reflects the quality of opponents the Yankees and Diamondbacks beat and lost to during that span. The majority of the Yankees losses since the break came to Tampa Bay (currently #1) and Boston (currently #4), while the majority of Arizona's losses came at the hands of the Giants (#27), Cubs (#16), and Padres (#19). Also note, the few wins that the Yankees and Diamondbacks racked up during those games came from the same teams mentioned above. See the difference? The Yankees are being rewarded more and punished less for their wins and losses against their stronger competition.
 
As another side note, it can be tough at the top. With the highest rating, a team is expected to win most of its games. This is why Pittsburgh slid a bit while going .500. Winning half your games will not keep you at the top for very long.
 
2          Pittsburgh( 62- 42)97.96(  6-  6)-1.49

 
If you notice any errors in the W-L record as of a specific date, please let me know. I found two errors already on ESPN (which I just copy and paste into my rating system) that I tracked down.