Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.
Notes:
- Who's in my Top 4 for the College Football Playoff?
- #1 Alabama
- #2 Ohio State
- #3 Washington
- #4 Clemson
- Who's out?
- #5 Penn St (trials Clemson by a slim margin: 0.46 points)
- #6 Michigan (trials Penn St by 7.02 points)
- Penn State's win in the Big Ten Championship was almost enough vault them over Clemson (ACC champion) and Washington (Pac-12 champion)
- As predicted, Michigan was passed by 2 conference champions, and falls to #6
- Washington's win over #7 Colorado was enough to not just get them into my Top 4, but to also leap Clemson (who defeated #23 VT) to the #3 spot.
- Oklahoma defeated #35 Oklahoma State to move up two spots to #11
- Top 10 // Top 25 Teams for each conferences:
- ACC: 2 // 5
- Big Ten: 4 // 5
- Big 12: 0 // 1
- Pac 12: 3 // 5
- SEC: 1 // 5
Who SHOULD be in the Playoffs?
Alabama is in. That much, at least, is not a debate.
The big question is whether the Big Ten will get two teams in, and if not, which Big Ten team should be in: Ohio State or Penn State?
For the three remaining spots, we have 4 real contenders: Ohio State, Washington (Pac-12 champ), Clemson (ACC champ), and Penn State (Big Ten champ).
I believe it is a dangerous precedent to set to leave out a conference champion in favor of a team with the same record that did not win their conference championship. An exception to this would be if the teams played head-to-head, and the non-conference champion won, which would be the case if Oklahoma only has 1 loss to Ohio State. Is Ohio State a so much better team to leave out Washington or Clemson in favor of getting in both OSU and PSU? The strength of schedules are comparable (see above). Big Ten fans, could you imagine Alabama beating Auburn, then winning the SEC championship game against Florida, but then the committee saying "Oh, but the SEC is so awesome, Auburn will get in above the Big Ten Champion this year (with the same record)"?? Could you imagine the outrage that would stem from that?
It's hard for me to comprehend Ohio State getting in without Penn State. Penn St has a head-to-head win over Ohio State, and the conference championship. Ohio State has a better record with a tougher strength of schedule. Is that enough to justify Ohio State being in the playoffs without PSU?
Without an objective measure, I would say Ohio State should be out. Because perception of how good OSU might be is a dangerous precedent to set... we all know how easily the perception of the SEC could be used against the rest of the conferences in a similar manner. However, using my objective ratings, Ohio State has accomplished more than Washington, Clemson, and Penn St to-date, despite a head-to-head loss against PSU and not winning a conference championship. In fact, if I simulated ANOTHER PSU win over Ohio State, only then would Penn State be ranked above the Buckeyes, and just barely.
This really comes down to each individual's opinion on how teams should be ranked. I have an objective measure of each team, and Ohio State is #2, by a substantial margin. However, my ratings do not treat the Conference Championship game as anything more than another game. It can be a very influential game, for sure. Usually the match-ups are between two highly rated teams... which can create large fluctuations, particularly for the winner. But there are no bonus points for the winner for becoming the "champion of a conference." So, to answer the question: "Who get's in?", you have to ask "Should Conference Champions supersede an objective measure of a superior team?". That's what we have this season. OSU is comfortably rated above THREE conference champions. However, they are not a conference champion themselves.
As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!
