NCAAF 2021 Rankings after Conference Championships

   NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 14, 5 DEC 2021

(Delta Calc'd from Week 13, 29 NOV 2021)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• The Top 4 of my rankings going into the CFP Selection Sunday:
• 1) Alabama
• 2) michigan
• 3) Georgia
• 4) Cincinnati
• Just missing:
• 5) Baylor
• 6) Oklahoma State
• I believe the CFP committee will mirror these rankings, at least for the Top 5. Perhaps they move Oklahoma State further down.
• Cincinnati got the help they needed in my rankings to crack the Top 4. If Oklahoma State would have won, they would have remained above the Bearcats.
• Interestingly, this might have been the case for the CFP committee as well. We'll never know for sure how it would have played out, but Alabama would have definitely jumped Cincy after defeating Georgia. Georgia will stay be in. michigan would have still been ranked above the Bearcats. Which would have left Ok St and Cincinnati for the last playoff spot. I could have definitely seen the committee favor Ok St in that situation over Cincinnati... and according to my rankings from the previous week (before they lost), they would have been correct.
• It is possible that a two-loss Baylor could jump Cincinnati, but I highly doubt it. You could make a strong case for Baylor. They have wins over three top 15 teams (Cincinnati has one), Baylor's strength of schedule is markedly better than Cincinnati's, they are champions of a much stronger conference, and they just avenged one of their losses in the Big 12 Conference championship. However, I don't think the committee has the cojones to make such a move, right or wrong.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 0 // 3 
• Big 12: 2 // 3
• Big Ten: 3 // 6
• Pac 12: 0 // 2
• SEC: 3 // 6

Poll Comparison

(check back later after the humans release their polls)

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2021 Rankings after Week 13

  NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 13, 29 NOV 2021

(Delta Calc'd from Week 12, 22 NOV 2021)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Georgia remains at #1 after beating #91 Georgia Tech. Even though the field caught up a bit, Georgia still has a healthy lead atop the rankings.
• ND falls from #2 to #5 after defeating #89 Stanford (which is probably why Brian Kelly left ND). New learning about ND's previous opponents updated Notre Dame's rating in a negative direction.
• Alabama claims the #2 spot after defeating #30 Auburn in overtime.
• michigan moves up to #3 (up for spots) after their win (michigan still sucks, by the way).
• Oklahoma State climbs to #4 after defeating #11 Oklahoma
• Ohio State falls to #6.
• Cincinnati falls two spots to #7, after defeating #66 East Carolina. )Same reason as Notre Dame above). They play #27 Houston in the AAC Championship game. If they win, it will be their second best win of the season... which is why Cincinnati will not pull ahead of the other teams without help (in my unbiased rankings, that is).
• Conference Championship Matchups
• ACC: #19 Wake Forest vs. #20 Pittsburgh
• Big 12: #4 Oklahoma St vs. #8 Baylor
• Big Ten: #3 michigan vs. #12 Iowa
• Pac 12: #21 Oregon vs. #23 Utah
• SEC: #1 Georgia vs. #2 Alabama
• AAC: #7 Cincinnati vs. #27 Houston
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 0 // 4 
• Big 12: 2 // 3
• Big Ten: 3 // 6
• Pac 12: 0 // 2
• SEC: 3 // 6

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2021 Rankings after Week 12

 NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 12, 22 NOV 2021

(Delta Calc'd from Week 11, 15 NOV 2021)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• #1 Georgia flexes it's muscle against Div I-AA opponent Charleston Southern. I can assure you that the vast majority of the 1.69 point increase in rating came from #20 Clemson improving their standing after a win against #18 Wake Forest. By the way, non-SEC Clemson is Georgia's best win so far this season.
• ND just barely hangs on to the #2 spot, edging out Alabama (by 0.02!) for the #2 ranking. Alabama moved up 2 spots after defeating #21 Arkansas.
• Ohio State moved up 4 spots to Fourth after a big win over #12 Michigan St (who dropped 5 spots from #7).
• michigan dropped 4 spots (from third to seventh) despite handily beating #54 Maryland. michigan increased their rating this week, but not as much as Alabama (def. #21 Arkansas), Ohio State (def. #12 MSU), and Oklahoma St (def. #42 Texas Tech). The wolverines fall was simply due to other teams having more impressive wins that put them over the wolverine's rating.
• Michigan St holds at #7, before traveling to #8 Ohio State, who moved up two places after defeating #19 Purdue.
• STILL the most overrated team by the human polls (CFP, AP, Coaches, etc..) is Oregon, even after getting stomped by Utah. They are ranked #11 in each of the human polls. However, looking at only what they've accomplished and removing all bias, they are ranked #24... despite their win over #4 Ohio State
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 0 // 3 
• Big 12: 3 // 3
• Big Ten: 3 // 6
• Pac 12: 0 // 2
• SEC: 2 // 5

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2021 Rankings after Week 11

   NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 11, 15 NOV 2021

(Delta Calc'd from Week 10, 8 NOV 2021)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Georgia still has a sizeable lead in the #1 spot, but #2 ND and #3 michigan closed the gap a bit with wins over #34 Virginia and #27 Penn St, respectively.
• ND just barely edges out Oklahoma (by 0.01!) for the #2 ranking.
• With a victory over #53 LSU, Alabama climbs to #4
• Cincinnati barely edges out Alabama for the 4th spot. Sorry Alabama, you just weren't rewarded very much for your win over #126 New Mexico State. But bonus points for actually not playing an FCS opponent! (just kidding, no bonus points)
• Michigan St holds at #7, before traveling to #8 Ohio State, who moved up two places after defeating #19 Purdue.
• Possibly the most overrated team by the human polls (CFP, AP, Coaches, etc..) is Oregon. They are ranked in the top 5 in each of the human polls. However, looking at only what they've accomplished and removing all bias, they are ranked #20... despite their win over #8 Ohio State
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 0 // 1 
• Big 12: 1 // 4
• Big Ten: 4 // 6
• Pac 12: 0 // 1
• SEC: 3 // 7

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

  NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 10, 8 NOV 2021

(Delta Calc'd from Week 9, 1 NOV 2021)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Georgia increases its lead in the #1 spot.
• ND just barely edges out Oklahoma (by 0.01!) for the #2 ranking.
• With a victory over #53 LSU, Alabama climbs to #4
• Cincinnati holds at #5. Cincinnati's 103rd ranked schedule (out of 130) isn't doing them any favors. Remember, SoS is not an input to my rating systems, but an output. Cincinnati isn't getting rewarded as much as other teams are for their victories over higher quality opponents. Sorry Bearcats, you have a good one win, but your next best victory was over #50 UCF.
• The second half of the top 10 belongs to the Big Ten. Michigan State falls to #7 after losing to #16 Purdue (up 7 spots from last week). Wisconsin climbs 6 spots to #8 (and has the best SoS). michigan is ranked at #9. Ohio State moves into the Top 10 (up one spot from last week).
• Possibly the most overrated team by the human polls (CFP, AP, Coaches, etc..) is Oregon. The Ducks actually fell 6 spots to #23 after their win over #99 Washington. Oregon lost 2.03 points not due to their victory of an inferior opponent, but rather because the learning of their previous opponents after Week 10 awarded less points than rewarded last week. That was a net-negative sum in points after adding the small bump they received from beating the Huskies.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 0 // 1 
• Big 12: 2 // 5
• Big Ten: 4 // 7
• Pac 12: 0 // 1
• SEC: 2 // 6

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF Rankings after Week 9

 NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 9, 1 NOV 2021

(Delta Calc'd from Week 8, 25 OCT 2021)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Georgia is ranked #1, with two top 20 victories and the #22 strength of schedule.
• Michigan St. jumped 12 spots to #2 after beating michigan (who fell 6 spots to #8 after the loss)
• Oklahoma is the only team with 9 wins, but it hasn't been rewarded as much as other teams due to it's poor strength of schedule.
• Speaking of poor strength of schedule, #5 Cincinnati is ranked just below #4 ND. Cincinnati's 102th ranked schedule (out of 130) isn't doing them any favors. Remember, SoS is not an input to my rating systems, but an output. Cincinnati isn't getting rewarded as much as other teams are for their victories over higher quality opponents. Sorry Bearcats, you have a good one win, but your next best victory was over #53 UCF.
• Alabama comes in at #10 when you look at their accomplishments without an SEC bias...
• Ohio State comes in just outside the top 10 at #11, ahead of #17 Oregon, who beat them in week 2. Oregon is in a similar situation as Cincinnati. Despite having one really nice win, Oregon's overall SoS (including Ohio State!) is 103 (out of 130).
• See below for a comparison of my rankings to the human polls. Currently, they are overrating Alabama (surprise!), Oregon, Ohio State, and Cincinnati for what they have achieved so far. That's not to say that in the end, they won't be worthy of those rankings. However, as of now, they haven't achieved their rankings yet in the human polls.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 1 
• Big 12: 3 // 3
• Big Ten: 2 // 6
• Pac 12: 0 // 1
• SEC: 2 // 6

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!