The Watercooler: October 2018

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

NFL Rankings After Week 8

NFL Rankings

Through Week 8: (29 OCT 2018)
(delta calc'd from Week: 7 (22 OCT 2018)

Comments? Leave some below!

NCAAF 2018 Rankings after Week 9

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 9, 29 OCT 2018

(Delta Calc'd from Week 8, 22 OCT 2018)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

At first glance, it might seem strange that Notre Dame not just got passed by LSU to drop to #3, but ND lost a little over a point despite beating #115 Navy. The thing to remember is that my ratings are iterative... meaning that it factors in learning from opponents that a team has played earlier in the season. As an example for ND here, their 2nd best win just lost their third game of the season (and lost almost 11 points). This negatively affects ND because as we learn more about the teams ND has defeated (in this specific case, Stanford), they now receive less of a rating gain from that victory over Stanford because Stanford is not rated as high as they were last week. This, along with ND's other opponents' losses, outweighed the marginal rating boost they got from defeated #115 Navy.
A more clear example of this can be seen by looking at the teams with Bye weeks. For example, Ohio State gained a little over a point due to the additional (net positive) learning from its opponent from last week to this week. Conversely, michigan lost almost 2 points on a Bye week due to the additional (net negative) learning from its opponents.
Washington State is ranked #10 in my ratings and the AP poll, and #11 in the Coaches poll.
Kentucky is #6? What in the world in college football is going on? Kentucky is ranked #11 and #12 in the AP and coaches poll, respectively. My ratings are giving them more credit than the human polls (possibly because of stigma?). The Wildcats have the 6th best Strength of Record and 26th toughest schedule, according to my ratings.
The human polls are giving UCF more credit than my ratings. I have them at #24, while both the AP and Coaches polls have them at #9. Perhaps the human polls are over correcting last year's mistake of having them rating too low (recall that in last year's rankings, I had them in my Top 5 for most of the season, while the human polls had them ranked outside the top 10, or worse. Then, they defeated Auburn in a bowl game. Auburn, by the way, was the only team to beat Alabama last year).
SEC dominance. The SEC holds 5 of the top 10 spots... It looks like the SEC is actually earning their hype this year... So far, anyway...
Top 10 // Top 25 Teams for each conference:

ACC: 1 // 3
Big Ten: 1 // 5
Big 12: 1 // 3
Pac 12: 1 // 3
SEC: 5 // 8

Poll Comparison

Conference Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

Friday, October 26, 2018

NFL Rankings after Week 7