NCAAF 2022 Rankings after Week 14

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 14, 4 DEC 2022

(Delta Calc'd from Week 13, 28 NOV 2022)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• My top 4 teams after conference championships are:
• #1 Georgia
• #2 michigan
• #3 TCU
• #4 Tennessee
• Just behind the top 4 are
• #5 Ohio State
• #6 Kansas St
• Georgia is far and away the top rated team. At 144.59, this is one of the highest rated teams I've had entering the playoffs
• TCU remains in the top 4, only dropping one spot after losing to #6 Kansas St.
• Tennessee ranked above Ohio State to get into my top 4 might surprise you. However, despite its two losses, Tennessee has objectively achieved ever slightly more than Ohio State this season. Ohio State is not helped by the Big Ten as a whole having a down year and barely has two top-25 wins (with ND clinging to the top 25 at #23). Tennessee has three, and boasts at top 25 strength of schedule (OSU's isn't even in the top 50).
• My prediction for the CFP committee's top 4:
• #1 Georgia
• #2 michigan
• #3 TCU
• #4 Ohio State
• I think the committee will put Ohio State at #4 for two reasons, despite TCU's loss in the Big 12 championship game
• They will use it to send a message to Ohio State that they literally backed into the playoffs and aren't thrilled about including them, but must because... who else could you justify? (they can't justify Tennessee, because they (biasedly) had Alabama ranked above them last week, and neither one of them played).
• They are afraid to have a Big Ten rematch so soon in the semifinals. I wouldn't be surprised if the CFP committee has received phone calls from michigan people asking for them to avoid the rematch. michigan has little to gain from a rematch and everything to lose. If they win... yea they should have... they just beat OSU in Ohio Stadium. If they lose... it someone negates their previous victory and sends them home.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 2 
• Big 12: 2 // 2
• Big Ten: 2 // 3
• Pac 12: 2 // 6
• SEC: 3 // 8

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2022 Rankings after Week 13

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 13, 28 NOV 2022

(Delta Calc'd from Week 12, 21 NOV 2022)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Ohio State falls 3 spots to #6 after losing to #3 michigan, who jumped up 1 spot. With the win, michigan closes the gap substantially to the top 2 (Georgia and TCU)
• USC climbs into the top 5 after defeating #22 Notre Dame
• LSU falls to 10th after losing to #63 Texas A&M
• Penn St climbs back into the top 10 with a win over #63 Michigan St.
• Conference Championship match-ups:
• ACC: #12 Clemson v #28 North Carolina
• Big 12: #2 TCU v #9 Kansas St
• Big Ten: Purdue v #3 michigan
• Pac 12: #5 USC v #13 Utah
• SEC: #1 Georgia v #10 LSU
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 0 // 2 
• Big 12: 2 // 4
• Big Ten: 3 // 3
• Pac 12: 1 // 6
• SEC: 4 // 8

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2022 Rankings after Week 12 Edit

 NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 12, 21 NOV 2022

(Delta Calc'd from Week 11, 15 NOV 2022)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• #3 Ohio State and #4 michigan set up for an epic matchup at the 'Shoe for The Game!
• Ohio State and michigan have the rivalry with the most top 5 match ups of all time
• michigan jumped #5 LSU after LSU defeated #92 UAB
• Tennessee falls 3 spots to #6 after losing to #27 South Carolina
• USC climbs to #7 after defeating #18 UCLA
• TCU remains at #2 after squeaking by #40 Baylor. I am still going to leave these comments from last week to remind us about human bias:
• It should be noted that several SEC-toting, ESPN commentators have bashed undefeated TCU, saying "this isn't the same Big 12 that they are dominating, and don't deserve a spot in the Top 4."
• This is objectively false, as you can see by my unbiased ratings. It's true that TCU doesn't have the Strength of Schedule (SoS) that many SEC teams do; however, they have accomplished more as an undefeated team than any 1-loss SEC team. As of now, before #4 Ohio State and #6 michigan play each other, TCU also has a better SoS than either of those teams... and there's no one arguing for an undefeated OSU or um to be left out of the playoffs
• This just points out the necessity of unbiased ratings (like mine) to ground human perception and biases.
• Alabama falls two spots to #9 after defeating Austin Peay. The teams near them just played and beat better opponents and were subsequently rewarded more for it.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 3 
• Big 12: 1 // 4
• Big Ten: 2 // 3
• Pac 12: 2 // 6
• SEC: 4 // 6

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2022 Rankings after Week 12

 NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 12, 21 NOV 2022

(Delta Calc'd from Week 11, 15 NOV 2022)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• #3 Ohio State and #4 michigan set up for an epic matchup at the 'Shoe for The Game!
• Ohio State and michigan have the rivalry with the most top 5 match ups of all time
• michigan jumped #5 LSU after LSU defeated #92 UAB
• Tennessee falls 3 spots to #6 after losing to #27 South Carolina
• USC climbs to #7 after defeating #18 UCLA
• TCU remains at #2 after squeaking by #40 Baylor. I am still going to leave these comments from last week to remind us about human bias:
• It should be noted that several SEC-toting, ESPN commentators have bashed undefeated TCU, saying "this isn't the same Big 12 that they are dominating, and don't deserve a spot in the Top 4."
• This is objectively false, as you can see by my unbiased ratings. It's true that TCU doesn't have the Strength of Schedule (SoS) that many SEC teams do; however, they have accomplished more as an undefeated team than any 1-loss SEC team. As of now, before #4 Ohio State and #6 michigan play each other, TCU also has a better SoS than either of those teams... and there's no one arguing for an undefeated OSU or um to be left out of the playoffs
• This just points out the necessity of unbiased ratings (like mine) to ground human perception and biases.
• Alabama falls two spots to #9 after defeating Austin Peay. The teams near them just played and beat better opponents and were subsequently rewarded more for it.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 3 
• Big 12: 1 // 4
• Big Ten: 2 // 3
• Pac 12: 2 // 6
• SEC: 4 // 6

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2022 Rankings after Week 11

 NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 11, 15 NOV 2022

(Delta Calc'd from Week 10, 8 NOV 2022)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Georgia retains the #1 spot, still by a comfortable margin, but the field closed the gap. Georgia gained 1.16 points this week, and the rest of the Top 10 averaged a 3.85 rating increase.
• TCU jumps to #2 after defeating #21 Texas.
• It should be noted that several SEC-toting, ESPN commentators have bashed undefeated TCU, saying "this isn't the same Big 12 that they are dominating, and don't deserve a spot in the Top 4."
• This is objectively false, as you can see by my unbiased ratings. It's true that TCU doesn't have the Strength of Schedule (SoS) that many SEC teams do; however, they have accomplished more as an undefeated team than any 1-loss SEC team. As of now, before #4 Ohio State and #6 michigan play each other, TCU also has a better SoS than either of those teams... and there's no one arguing for an undefeated OSU or um to be left out of the playoffs
• This just points out the necessity of unbiased ratings (like mine) to ground human perception and biases.
• Notre Dame drops two spots to #17, despite beating #108 Navy.
• #9 Utah cracks the Top 10, up four spots from last week
• The SEC still dominates the top 10, owning four spots: #1 Georgia, #3 Tennessee, #5 LSU, and #7 Alabama.
• This point is still true: The top teams in the Big Ten (#4 Ohio State, #6 Michigan, and #12 Penn St) are suffering from the poor performances of the rest of the Big Ten: they just aren't getting much credit for defeating those teams, and therefore their rating isn't as high as other teams with similar records.
• Ohio State and Michigan have the 58th and 78th toughest Strength of Schedules (SoS) to date, respectively... by far the worst in the Top 10 (next lowest is USC's SoS at 45th)
• This is also reflected in the conference rankings below.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 3 
• Big 12: 1 // 4
• Big Ten: 2 // 3
• Pac 12: 2 // 6
• SEC: 4 // 7

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF Ranking after Week 10

 NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 10, 8 NOV 2022

(Delta Calc'd from Week 9, 31 OCT 2022)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Georgia jumps to the #1 spot (by a significant margin!) after defeating Tennessee, who only dropped one spot to #2.
• TCU holds on to the #3 spot... and the human polls are starting to get on board (#4 in both the AP and Coaches Polls. It will be interesting to see where the CFP Committee puts them on Tuesday).
• Notre Dame jumps up 9 spots to #15 after defeating #9 Clemson, who fell 7 spots.
• The SEC still dominates the top 10, owning four spots: #1 Georgia, #2 Tennessee, #6 LSU, and #10 Alabama.
• This point is still true: The top teams in the Big Ten (#4 Ohio State, #7 Michigan, and #16 Penn St) are suffering from the poor performances of the rest of the Big Ten: they just aren't getting much credit for defeating those teams, and therefore their rating isn't as high as other teams with similar records.
• Ohio State and Michigan have the 61st and 77th toughest Strength of Schedules (SoS) to date, respectively... by far the worst in the Top 10 (next lowest is TCU's SoS at 46th)
• This is also reflected in the conference rankings below.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 3 
• Big 12: 1 // 4
• Big Ten: 2 // 3
• Pac 12: 2 // 5
• SEC: 4 // 7

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2022 Rankings after Week 9

    NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 9, 31 OCT 2022

(Delta Calc'd from Week 8, 25 OCT 2022)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Tennessee (defeated #31 Kentucky) jumps #2 Clemson (Bye) for the top spot this week. TCU and Georgia hold on to #3 and #4, respectively.
• Ohio State leaps up seven spots to #5 after defeating #19 Penn St. Ohio State was also helped by #24 Notre Dame getting a big win against #16 Syracuse. Recall, last week ND was ranked #42. ND's win increases their rating, which in turn increases the rating delta that Ohio State receives for beating them.
• The SEC still dominates the top 10, owning four spots: #1 Tennessee, #4 Georgia, #7 Alabama, and #10 LSU.
• This point is still true: The top teams in the Big Ten (#5 Ohio State, #6 Michigan, #19 Penn St, and #23 Illinois) are suffering from the poor performances of the rest of the Big Ten: they just aren't getting much credit for defeating those teams, and therefore their rating isn't as high as other teams with similar records.
• Ohio State and Michigan are ~5.5 and 9 points below the other 8-0 teams in the top 10.
• For reference, Georgia received +5.54 points after defeating #36 Florida this week
• Note: this is a little bit of an oversimplification because there are more factors that contribution to this delta rating (such as increasing learning of previous opponents, that we discuss frequently on this blog)
• Illinois is the lowest ranked 7-1 team in the Power 5 conferences.
• In fact, only #27 Liberty and #39 Coastal Carolina are ranked below them with the same record
• This is also reflected in the conference rankings below.
• Keep in mind, these rankings are early. There's still a lot of learning (and therefore fluidity) in the rankings as the season is played out.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 6 
• Big 12: 1 // 3
• Big Ten: 2 // 4
• Pac 12: 2 // 5
• SEC: 4 // 5

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2022 Rankings after Week 8

   NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 8, 25 OCT 2022

(Delta Calc'd from Week 7, 18 OCT 2022)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Clemson opens the 2022 Ooten Rankings at #1 with three top-20 wins! Those three top wins of Clemson has a combined ONE loss to any other team.
• The SEC has FIVE top 10 teams: #2 Tennessee, #4 Georgia, #6 Alabama, #9 LSU, #10 Ole Miss.
• Oregon jumps up 11 spots to #7 after defeating #14 UCLA
• The top teams in the Big Ten (#5 Michigan, #12 Ohio State, #17 Penn St) are suffering from the poor performances of the rest of the Big Ten: they just aren't getting much credit for defeating those teams, and therefore their rating isn't as high as other teams with similar records.
• Ohio State's best win is #42 Notre Dame, followed by #63 Wisconsin
• This is also reflected in the conference rankings below.
• Keep in mind, these rankings are early. There's still a lot of learning (and therefore fluidity) in the rankings as the season is played out.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 2 // 4 
• Big 12: 1 // 4
• Big Ten: 1 // 4
• Pac 12: 1 // 5
• SEC: 5 // 6

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!