Football Blitz V

NFL Rankings

After seven weeks into the NFL season, I've posted my first release of my NFL rankings. I use exactly the same methodology in these rankings as I did with my MLB rankings (you can read more here). One difference you will notice is my program also prints out each team's top wins. I've set that number to three, currently. 

Just a few quick interesting notes:

• Kansas City is #1, which isn't too much of a surprise since they are the only undefeated team remaining.
• Denver dropped to #8 after losing to Indy. This in large part is driven by the quality of competition: the best of their six wins is #14 ranked Dallas.
• Indianapolis is ranked #4 and is the highest ranked two-loss team. They have wins over #2 Seattle, #5 San Francisco, and #8 Denver.

BCS

This is the first week of the BCS standings, released after the 8th week of NCAA. Alabama, Florida State, Oregon, Ohio State, and Missouri make up the top 5 and are all undefeated teams. Miami (#7),  Baylor (#8), and Texas Tech (#10) are also undefeated from major football conferences. If they win out, they would also likely be in the mix near the end of the season.

I know there is a lot of football left, and a lot of loses to hand out, but let's create some doomsday scenarios to spin our wheels out on for a while. After all, what else would we talk about for the Week 8 BCS standings?

Let's say that the top 4 teams remain undefeated. Who goes to the national championship game? Unfortunately for two schools, this is the last year for the current BCS system, and they would be left out. But which two? I believe we could assume Alabama would safely be in the championship game. And rightfully so. They are the two-time defending champs. In my mind, that alone should guarantee Alabama any tie-breakers over other conference champions with the same number of losses. They also have public perception on their side (mostly deserved, but I would argue to a lesser extent than most). Florida State and Oregon both have an inside track over Ohio State. This is likely due to strength of schedule and the perceived weakness of the Big Ten.  Again, I wouldn't argue this too much, except for maybe how far many analysts take it. It would most likely come down to a very close number crunching between FSU and Oregon. And if you only considered this season, I think it would be fair, based on strength of schedule, for it to come down to FSU and Oregon.

However, and this is where I might get into some trouble, if the Buckeyes were able to finish this season undefeated, they would be 25-0 in the last two seasons combined. Could you omit that from a championship game? And before you get too bent out of shape at me for including last season in this argument, consider this: Did you feel the same way went I mentioned Alabama should be guaranteed a spot for being the two-time defending champs? Because that is the exact same logic that I just applied to OSU.

But, as I mentioned, there is still plenty of time for upsets. Undefeated teams ranked outside the top two should not be concerned with anything right now... except for beating their next opponent.

SSFFL

Time for a Stars and Stripes Fantasy Football League update!

It's been a very interesting first half of the regular season. Both divisions are being dominated by two teams, while the rest are struggling to reach the .500 mark. Eric and Zach top the Stars, while Jamie and Ashley lead the Stripes. 

The race for the 3rd playoff spot in each division will be tight down the stretch. In the Stars Division, 2 games separates last place from the playoffs, and it's only one game difference in the Stripes.

And finally, after the mid-season two-week interdivisional play, the Stars v. Stripes competition is tied up at 6 all... leaving everything to be settled in Rivalry Week (week 13)!

Football Blitz IV

NCAAF Playoff Committee

The NCAA Football playoff committee was announced recently. The committee will be comprised of 13 members and will be chaired by Arkansas athletic director Jeff Long. You can review the rest of members here, but a few notables are Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez, former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former Nebraska coach/AD Tom Osborne and football royalty Archie Manning. 

Their mission is supposedly simple: to determine the best four teams in college football. To me, however, this is a flawed premise. We should be looking for the four most deserving teams in college football. There is a big difference, in my opinion, between "best" and "most deserving". "Best" is fairly subjective. Many people would believe that a one-loss Alabama team (that did not win the SEC) would be better than an undefeated Big Ten, Big 12, PAC 12, or ACC champion... and they may be right, and I might agree. However, the more deserving team would be a major conference champion that ran the table. Luckily, there are four playoffs spots, so both teams would be get, but you can imagine a scenario in which a two-loss, non-SEC-championship Alabama would be compared to a one-loss Big Ten Champion for the fourth spot. Who gets in now? Who is better? Very subjective. Who is more deserving? That could be tough to determine objectively, but you would at least have some objective measures to helping you decide, such as: Winning your conference, strength of schedule, etc. 

Another scary thing is that some on the committee eluded to the fact that they would factor in injuries into their decision. If a team was left out of the playoff solely due to an injury (i.e., that team would have been included if a key player was healthy), that would be a travesty. A team should be judged on its body of work, not how the committee thinks the team will perform with or without a key player.

The committee will also select teams for the Cotton, Fiesta, and Chick-fil-A bowls, and rank the champion of the non-Power conferences, which will receive a spot in one of the six major bowls.

Revisiting NFL Pre-Season Picks

After six weeks into the season, so let's how my pre-season picks compare to the current NFL standings. This time, we'll take a look at the NFC:

NFC North (2013 Week 6 Standings)      NFC North (Picks)
Detroit (4-2)                                               Green Bay
Chicago (4-2)                                             Chicago
Green Bay (3-2)                                         Detroit
Minnesota (1-4)                                          Minnesota

This division is fairly tight among the top 3, but I would be surprised if my pick in Green Bay did not win the division. Even though the Packers offensive line is terrible and they have suffered some injuries in their skill positions, I believe Aaron Rodgers can lead  his team to a division championship. The ground game is also improving in Green Bay, which will take some of the pressure off of Rodgers. Don't get me wrong, Detroit and Chicago both a reasonable chance to win the division, but I expect GB to finish stronger than these two.

NFC East (2013 Week 6 Standings)      NFC East (Picks)
Dallas (3-3)                                               Washington
Philadelphia (3-3)                                      Dallas
Washington (1-4)                                      NY Giants
NY Giants (0-6)                                        Philadelphia

Wow. Not what I expected after the first six weeks. Even though I did pick the Giants to finish 3rd in the NFC East, I did not expect them to look this poorly. The Giants performance is really inexplicable. The pieces from last year have not changed significantly, yet the offense and defense both look more dis-functional than the Jets! The Redskins have not looked good, but keep in mind RG3 did not play in the preseason. Can he turn the season around, or have we seen a new, post-injury RG3? Dallas, once again, seems to be a legitimate contender if they keep from shooting themselves in the foot. I would describe the Eagles as opportunistic. I don't believe they are the second best team in the division, but they are taking advantage of the poor showing in the first six weeks of the season by the entire division. Dallas and Philadelphia play a huge division game in Week 7.

NFC South (2013 Week 6 Standings)      NFC South (Picks)
New Orleans (5-1)                                     New Orleans
Carolina (2-3)                                            Atlanta
Atlanta (1-4)                                              Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay (0-5)                                       Carolina

I'm not shocked in the least by how well the Saints are playing. They are currently comfortably in the driver's seat of the NFC South. I expected that Atlanta would be in close contention for the division, however, the Falcons have been anything but impressive. Given that Carolina isn't exactly setting the world on fire either, I still have confidence (and the belief) that Atlanta will finish second in the South. However, I do have serious doubts regarding Atlanta making the playoffs (recall I picked Atlanta for a wildcard spot). By the way, somebody tell Tampa Bay that the season has started...

NFC West (2013 Week 6 Standings)      NFC West (Picks)
Seattle (5-1)                                               San Francisco
San Francisco (4-2)                                    Seattle
St. Louis (3-3)                                            Arizona
Arizona (3-3)                                             St. Louis

If I had the chance to reorder my picks in the NFC West, I would switch the order of the top 2 teams. I don't think Seattle is leaps and bounds better than San Francisco, and I would not be surprised in the least if SF ends up winning this division, but Seattle has looked much more impressive so far. Seattle beat SF pretty handily at home (29-3), and lost a close one to Indy (28-34) on the road. The 49ers also lost to Indy, but that game was played in SF and wasn't pretty (7-27). St. Louis and Arizona both are two teams in no man's land. They aren't great, but they aren't terrible. It's a coin flip to see how then end up in the bottom of this division.

Football Blitz III

The Buckeyes

Ohio State pulled out two high-quality wins since the last Football Blitz. First, a 31-24 victory at home over #23 Wisconsin, and then a 40-30 win at #16 Northwestern. While these two teams are quality opponents, I am still less than impressed with OSU's secondary. Sure, against Wisconsin the defensive game plan was to take away the ground game. However, all too often, the Badger's QB found WR Jared Abbrederis (or as many us of know him better as Wisc's #4) wide open for an easy 10, 20, plus game to keep the drive going. Northwestern also had success moving the ball against the Buckeyes' defense. I was very happy to here Meyer comment on the soft coverage and admit that it was something that was going to be worked on during the bye week. Ohio State's next real tough test will be at michigan, but don't write off Penn St (ever) or Purdue (see 1-5 Purdue, 2009).

Despite being critical of the defense, I was impressed with the Buckeyes' previous two wins. Unlike many, I was concerned about the tough road test Northwestern would pose. Going back-to-back night game wins against Wisconsin and at Northwestern with Braxton Miller returning to the lineup gives me confidence that this team can pull out close wins against the elite in the Big Ten. However, the defense will need to improve a decent amount to be able to pull out close games against the elite schools in the nation.

Revisiting NFL Pre-Season Picks

We are a little over a quarter (through Week 5) into the season, so let's how my pre-season picks compare to the current NFL standings. This week, we'll take a look at the AFC:

AFC North (2013 Week 5 Standings)      AFC North (Picks)
Baltimore  (3-2)                                        Cincinnati      
Cleveland (3-2)                                         Baltimore    
Cincinnati (3-2)                                         Pittsburgh    
Pittsburgh (0-4)                                         Cleveland

To be honest, I don't know what to make of this division. Baltimore has predictably taken a step back, but now that they seem to have remembered their stud Ray Rice, their offense is improving. Andy Dalton has yet to turn the corner for the Bengals. I still believe Cincinnati has a good chance to make the playoffs, but I'm not sure it's going to come from winning the AFC North. Cleveland, in my mind, is out playing itself. I think the Browns are in for a let down during the six weeks, based on their upcoming schedule. As far as the Steelers, I'm feeling pretty confident about my 3rd place pick for them. I believe I needed a bad start from the Steeler to spot Cincy a few games in order for the Steelers to actually finish 3rd in the division. I don't see it being a problem for Pittsburgh to finish the season ahead of the  Browns, I just hope they don't surpass the Bengals at some point.

AFC East (2013 Week 5 Standings)      AFC East (Picks)
New England (4-1)                                 New England
Miami (3-2)                                            Miami
NY Jets (3-2)                                         Buffalo
Buffalo (2-3)                                           NY Jets

No surprise at the top in this division, except for maybe that the Patriots were beat by Cincy AND Tom Brady's TD streak came to an end! Although, you have to give New England credit, they are getting by pretty well with a lack of their offensive firepower they've enjoyed the last couple of seasons. I don't think Miami will have too much trouble holding on to the 2nd spot as the season progresses. The Jets are not as good as their record indicates. Overall, I'm feeling pretty good about this division panning out fairly close to how I've called it.

AFC South (2013 Week 5 Standings)      AFC South (Picks)
Indianapolis (4-1)                                      Indianpolis
Tennessee (3-2)                                        Houston
Houston (2-3)                                           Tennessee
Jacksonville (0-5)                                     Jacksonville

There's been a lot of talk in Houston regarding Schaub at QB. Is he still the guy? I believe he is for the remainder of the year. I think it would be a mistake replace him, unless they can sign another big name. I don't see Yates faring any better. In the meantime, Indy is looking good atop this division with two solid wins against SF and Seattle. And Jacksonville has the rest of the NFL talking retraction.

AFC West (2013 Week 5 Standings)      AFC West (Picks)
Denver (5-0)                                           Denver
Kansas City (5-0)                                   Kansas City
Oakland (2-3)                                         San Diego
San Diego (2-3)                                      Oakland

Let's state the obvious: Denver looks great. I do wonder about their defense. While P. Manning is basically having his way on offense, the Bronco's defense surrendered 48 points to Dallas in Week 5. Kansas City has surprised me. I picked them to finish 2nd in this division, but that was because of a lack of confidence in the other teams, not due to the fact that I felt the Chiefs would look so good. As far as San Diego and Oakland... I think it all depends on how the QBs fare during the bulk of the season. If Philips can play as he was once expected, the Chargers could make a run at 2nd place in the West. And if Pryor can develop into a solid pro quarterback, the Raiders might not be too far away either.

Final 2013 MLB Regular Season Rankings

Final Rankings

Below is a snapshot of the Top 15 MLB teams for the 2013 regular season. The full rankings can be seen on the MLB Rankings tab of this blog. The delta ratings and W/L are calculated from 8 Sep, so you can see the change in performance over the last three weeks of the season. The teams that made the playoffs for the AL and NL are colored in blue and red, respectively. The teams that are underlined won their division. If you are unfamiliar with my MLB rating system, check out this post for an explanation.

St. Louis and Boston tied for the best records in baseball, but the Cardinals edged out the Red Sox for the top spot in the final standings by a half point. The Dodgers finally cooled off during the last three weeks of the season, dropping below a rating of 100 and into third place. Cleveland finished the regular season on a 10-game winning streak, and winning 16 out of their last 20, shoot up to fifth place. The Redlegs did not finish the season well, dropping to 9th place and having the second worst delta rating of the entire league in the last three weeks of the season.

An interesting note is that the top 10 teams in my rankings correspond to the ten teams that made the playoffs. Does that give some credence to my rankings? Perhaps. However, I think it speaks more to the marathon baseball season truly getting the best teams from each league in the playoffs. Also, it just so happened to work out that the top 5 teams in each league were among the top 10 overall. For example, look at spots 10 and 11. Washington (NL) was six-hundredths of a point from cracking the top 10 instead of Detroit (AL). Despite that though, my rankings would have picks the top 5 from each league making the playoffs. Had Washington been ranked above Detroit in the final standings, it would have been irrelevant because Washington (NL) and Detroit (AL) are not competing for the same playoff spot being in different leagues.

Post-Season Predictions

I'm going to strictly use my final predictions pick the results of the post-season. At the time of writing this post, the one-game playoffs have already been played, so I will not predict those games. Instead, I will compare what my ratings would have projected.

My predictions, based entirely on my final rankings, are shown below in blue. Quickly reviewing the 1-game series, my rankings would have correctly picked Pittsburgh, but incorrectly picked Cleveland to advance. I won't lose too much sleep over that, as you will tend to find more anomalies in a smaller sample size (one-game series). I have the Cardinal and Dodgers in the NLCS, and the Red Sox and the A's in the ACLS, with St. Louis over Boston in the World Series.

I'll make things a bit more interesting by taking things a step further... I will also predict the number of games each series will take based on the separation of the teams' rankings. This will be completely arbitrary because I have no basis of history for this, but we'll see if a can't make myself look more like an idiot. Also, the underdog having its ace on the mound in a playoff environment (not to mention playing at least one game at home) can really skew things, but I will not take that into account, just looking at the number only!

Division Series (best of 5):

St. Louis over Pittsburgh in 4, LA over Atlanta in 5, Boston over Tampa Bay in 3, Oakland over Detroit in 3

League Championships (best of 7):

St. Louis over LA in 5, Boston over Oakland in 6

World Series (best of 7):

St. Louis over Boston in 7

Most Likely Upsets

Okay, up to this point, my predictions have been based entire on my final ratings. Ratings aren't prefect. In fact, they are a reflection of previous performance, not predictors of future events. We like to use past performance to predict future outcomes, but upsets do occur. That's why we play the games. So let's take a few moments to look at potential upsets:

AL

• Tampa Bay is hot! They are have 4 straight road elimination games. I would not be surprised to see TB play Boston pretty tough.
• If we see an Oakland vs Boston in the ALCS, Oakland could upset Boston. The teams split the season series this year 3-3, and the A's finished the year on a positive note, winning 7 of their last 10.

NL

• I would strongly consider picking Atlanta over LA, especially given that the Braves will have home field advantage. Also, Atlanta won the season series 5-2 against the Dodgers.
• I believe the NCLS will be close, whoever plays St. Louis between ATL and LA. Both teams hold a 4-3 season series edge over the Cardinals, but I still expect the Cardinals to win... but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't.