NFL Rankings after Week 16

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 16: (29 DEC 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 15: (22 DEC 2015)

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NFL Rankings after Week 15

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 15: (22 DEC 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 14: (15 DEC 2015)

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NFL Rankings after Week 14

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 14: (15 DEC 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 13: (8 DEC 2015)

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NCAAF Rankings after Week 15

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 15, 13 DEC 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 14, 6 DEC 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

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Highlights in the Top 10:

• My UPDATED Final Four playoff teams are set: #1 Alabama, #2 Clemson, #3 Michigan St., #4 Oklahoma.
• Wait a second!? Last week Iowa was #4, and Oklahoma was #5: 
• "Oklahoma left out at #5, trailing #4 Iowa by 0.24 points. Comparing their quality of competition, Iowa was ranked #42 and Oklahoma #40. Iowa loss came to #3 Michigan St, while Oklahoma lost to #50 Texas. Also, Iowa has one more win than Oklahoma on their resume. These factors are why Iowa edged out Oklahoma in my rankings."
• Good news for Oklahoma fans. There were some (very few) games played this week, mostly from Div I-AA and Div II and III. So, there was some additional learning that my rating systems takes into account, due to it's iterative nature.
• One of Iowa's Div I-AA opponents (Illinois St, now ranked #3 in Div I-AA) lost again, so Iowa's ratings dropped significantly relative to other teams (most likely because other teams were at least one team removed from teams that had a negative result this week).
• The resulting rating dropped Iowa to #5, below the now #4 Oklahoma Sooners
• The rest of the Top 25 remained the same: the small delta's were not significant enough to change the order of the other teams.
• My final four now matches the selection committee's final four
• Four Big Ten teams in the Top 10. Add michigan (#16) and that accounts for 5 of the Top 20 teams.
• For comparison, the SEC has 2 teams in the Top 10, and 6 teams in the Top 25 (the SEC also has Tennessee at #26, Texas A&M at #27, and Georgia at #28)
• The Big 12 has 1 Top 10 team, and 4 Top 25 teams. 
• The Pac 12 has 1 Top 10 team, and 3 Top 25 teams. 

My Take:

• Let's look back on a few of my committee projections from last week:
• "After a boring Championship Saturday, the committee's job should be very simple: Clemson, Alabama, Michigan St, and Oklahoma will be in the college football playoff."
• Correct, but this was an easy prediction
• "I believe the teams should be in that order, also. Michigan St should leap Oklahoma for the #3 spot. Both teams have one loss to a very inferior opponent. MSU's loss came on a poor call at the end of the game, and played in and won a conference title game."
• Correct!
• "Stanford should climb to #5. I believe they will pass Ohio State despite having one more loss because they played in a conference championship game and won. Even though it doesn't make a difference to the Final Four teams, we will still get some learning here as to how much the committee values conference championships."
• Partial credit here, I was right when I said Stanford would jump Ohio State. However, I was wrong to think Iowa would fall below either Stanford or OSU. At least I questioned whether Iowa would fall below OSU "It will be interesting to see if Iowa drops below Ohio State. Both teams have one loss, and to the same team very late in the game."
• In summary, my prediction for the Committee's Top 10 (vs the actual top 10):
1. Clemson (Clemson)
2. Alabama (Alabama)
3. Michigan St (Michigan St)
4. Oklahoma (Oklahoma)
5. Stanford (Iowa)
6. Ohio State (Stanford)
7. Iowa (Ohio State)
8. Notre Dame (Notre Dame)
9. Florida St. (Florida St.)
10. TCU (North Carolina)

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Comments? Please share below!

NFL Rankings after Week 13

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 13: (8 DEC 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 12: (1 DEC 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!

NCAAF Playoff Rankings (after Week 14)

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 14, 6 DEC 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 13, 29 NOV 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

.

Highlights in the Top 10:

• My Final Four playoff teams are set: #1 Alabama, #2 Clemson, #3 Michigan St., #4 Iowa.
• Oklahoma left out at #5, trailing #4 Iowa by 0.24 points. Comparing their quality of competition, Iowa was ranked #42 and Oklahoma #40. Iowa loss came to #3 Michigan St, while Oklahoma lost to #50 Texas. Also, Iowa has one more win than Oklahoma on their resume. These factors are why Iowa edged out Oklahoma in my rankings.
• Four Big Ten teams in the Top 10. Add michigan (#16) and that accounts for 5 of the Top 20 teams.
• For comparison, the SEC has 2 teams in the Top 10, and 6 teams in the Top 25 (the SEC also has Tennessee at #26, Texas A&M at #27, and Georgia at #28)
• The Big 12 has 1 Top 10 team, and 4 Top 25 teams. 
• The Pac 12 has 1 Top 10 team, and 3 Top 25 teams. 

My Take:

• After a boring Championship Saturday, the committee's job should be very simple: Clemson, Alabama, Michigan St, and Oklahoma will be in the college football playoff.
• I believe the teams should be in that order, also. Michigan St should leap Oklahoma for the #3 spot. Both teams have one loss to a very inferior opponent. MSU's loss came on a poor call at the end of the game, and played in and won a conference title game.
• Stanford should climb to #5. I believe they will pass Ohio State despite having one more loss because they played in a conference championship game and won. Even though it doesn't make a difference to the Final Four teams, we will still get some learning here as to how much the committee values conference championships.
• It will be interesting to see if Iowa drops below Ohio State. Both teams have one loss, and to the same team very late in the game. 
• In summary, my prediction for the Committee's Top 10:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Michigan St
4. Oklahoma
5. Stanford
6. Ohio State
7. Iowa
8. Notre Dame
9. Florida St.
10. TCU

(Update: See NCAAF Rankings after Week 15 to see how well my predictions turned out)

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Comments? Please share below!

NFL Rankings (after week 12)

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 12: (1 DEC 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 11: (24 NOV 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!

NCAAF Rankings (after Week 13)

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 13, 29 NOV 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 12, 22 NOV 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

.

Highlights in the Top 10:

• The top 3 teams remain unchanged for the second straight week.
• Notre Dame falls out of the Top 4 to  #8 after losing to #6 Stanford (Stanford was ranked #15 last week)
• Ohio State is back in the Top 10 after demolishing michigan!
• Oklahoma is now in the Top 4 after beating Oklahoma St, which fell to #11 after the loss.
• Four Big Ten teams in the Top 10. Add michigan (#17) and that accounts for 5 of the Top 20 teams.
• For comparison, the SEC has 2 teams in the Top 10, and 5 teams in the Top 25 (but the SEC is stronger overall, see below)
• The Big 12 has 1 Top 10 team, and 4 Top 25 teams. 
• The Pac 12 has 1 Top 10 team, and 3 Top 25 teams. 

My Take:

• With only the conference championships remaining, who controls their own path to reaching my Top 4? Note: this is not to be confused with who is (or who I think should be) in the Committee's Top 4 
• Certainly the Top 3: Alabama, Iowa, and Clemson. 
• I believe #6 Stanford will pass #4 Oklahoma with a win over #23 USC in the Pac 12 championship game, but it will be close. Too close to say that Oklahoma is in MY Top 4, regardless of the Stanford-USC outcome. So we see the benefit of playing in a conference championship game playing out in my rankings (one extra resume-building game).
• #5 Michigan St controls it's own destiny as well. They are in the driver's seat of the Big Ten East. If they get to the Big Ten Championship and defeat Iowa, they would vault into the Top 4, displacing Iowa.
• To recap, Alabama, Iowa, Clemson, Michigan St, and possibly Stanford. If Oklahoma wants the honor of being including in my final regular season Top 4, they need to root against Stanford in the Pac 12 title game.
• Now that MSU will be representing the Big Ten East in the Big Ten Championship game, is Ohio State's National Title chances done? No, but it's definitely not looking good. Here's last week's Committee rankings:
• #1 Clemson, #2 Alabama, #3 Oklahoma, #4 Iowa, #5 MSU, #6 ND, #7 Baylor, #8 Ohio State, #9 Stanford, #10 michigan, #11 Oklahoma St., #12 Florida, #13 Florida St, #14 UNC
• OSU beat michigan. ND, Baylor, Oklahoma St, and Florida lost. Iowa and MSU will play each other (and we'll assume for this argument that the loser of that game drops below OSU, otherwise, OSU will not get in no matter what. Also, to simplify things, we'll assume MSU wins, but you can reverse the outcome in your head if you want). 
• #1 Clemson, #2 Alabama, #3 Oklahoma, #4 Iowa, #5 MSU, #6 ND, #7 Baylor, #8 Ohio State, #9 Stanford, #10 michigan, #11 Oklahoma St., #12 Florida, #13 Florida St, #14 UNC
• So that leaves 4 teams ranked above Ohio State. However, Stanford was right behind the Buckeyes, and their win over ND may give them a boost to pass OSU, even with one more loss than OSU has. Additionally, Stanford is playing in the Pac 12 title game. If they aren't ranked above OSU this week, they probably will (and should be) if they win the Pac 12 championship against USC.
• Florida St did beat Florida, however FSU already has 2 losses and will not be playing in the ACC title game. They will not jump OSU.
• UNC is another story. They only have one loss, and if they beat #1 Clemson in the ACC title game, probably should pass OSU for the last spot in the Top 4. Their SoS is pretty lousy (and that's whats holding them back, and could work in OSU's favor). However, for the Committee to put a team in the Top 4 above a conference champion, that team has to be "unequivocally" better than the conference champion. So it would be a subject call between OSU and UNC.
• So, the bottom line. OSU needs a fair bit of calamity. The way I see it, the Buckeyes need:
• first and foremost, the loser of the Big Ten championship game to be ranked below them (which might be asking a lot for a team sitting at home not playing in the conference championship), 
• then 2 of the following 3 outcomes:
• Alabama to lose to Florida in the SEC title game
• Stanford to lose to USC in the Pac 12 title game
• Clemson to lose to UNC in the ACC title game (however, as discussed above, this has the potential to cause UNC to jump OSU, thus negating this scenario... In that event, OSU would need the two above scenarios to happen also)
• Even if all that happens, should OSU be in the playoffs? Those of you who've spoken with me about the topic of a 4 team playoff know where I stand: We have 5 major conferences. Win your conference to get a shot at the national title. So here OSU is on the outside looking in, and I'm not going change my tune. I still believe you should win your conference to be in the final four. Until they open up to an eight-team playoff, I don't think there is any room for a second team from a conference. Even if a two-loss Stanford or a one-loss UNC team with a miserable SoS gets in ahead of the Buckeyes. With only four teams in the playoffs, I have 3 words: Win. Your. Conference.
• With that said, I am still a passionate fan and I can't help myself. So I am hoping against all hope that the Buckeyes still get in!

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Comments? Please share below!

NFL Rankings (after Week 11)

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 11: (24 NOV 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 10: (17 NOV 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!

NFL Rankings (after Week 10)

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 10(17 NOV 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 09: (10 NOV 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!

NCAA Football Top 25 (after Week 12)

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 12, 22 NOV 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 11, 15 NOV 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

.

Highlights in the Top 10:

• The top 3 teams remain unchanged. However, ND moved up to #4 after Oklahoma St was beaten by Baylor. With the win, Baylor cracks the Top 10 for the first time this season.
• Ohio State falls from the top 10 to #14 after losing to now-ranked #6 Michigan St. The win by MSU vaulted them into the top 10, right behind Oklahoma
• Speaking of Oklahoma: The Sooners moved up four spot to #5 after defeating TCU.
• Win a win over #35 Wisconsin, Northwestern also cracks the top 10, making 3 Big Ten teams in the Top 10. michigan (#11) and Ohio State (#14) account for 5 of the Top 14 teams.
• For comparison, the SEC has 3 teams in the Top 15, but 8 teams in the Top 25. 
• The Big 12 has 3 Top 10 teams, and then #18 TCU. 
• The Pac 12's highest ranked team is #15 Stanford, followed by #17 Oregon and #25 Washington St.

My Take:

• With two weeks left, who's in control of their own destiny of reaching my Top 4? 
• Certainly the Top 3: Alabama, Iowa, and Clemson. 
• Notre Dame and Oklahoma each have one game left, with ND ahead by a little over 4.5 points. Oklahoma plays #8 Ok St and ND plays #15 Stanford. My guess is that if ND wins, it will still be slightly ahead of OU, but the gap will definitely close.
• Michigan St controls it's own destiny as well. They are in the driver's seat of the Big Ten East. If they get to the Big Ten Championship and defeat Iowa, they would vault into the Top 4, displacing Iowa.
• Florida could potentially get in to the Top 4 if they are able to defeat Alabama in the SEC championship game. I'd say they are on the bubble of controlling their own destiny because it might depend on who also losses above them.
• Is Ohio State's National Title chances done? No, but it's definitely on life support. Ohio State needs to beat michigan next week, and MSU to lose to PSU just to get to the Big Ten Championship. Then, OSU would have to beat Iowa in the Big Ten championship. Then, that would force the committee to make a very difficult decision. Ohio State could climb in the rankings and regain some respect with back-to-back wins over michigan and Iowa. Could the committee leave a 1 loss Big Ten champion out of the playoffs? Let's look at who would be left at the top if the scenario I described happens. (I'll use my rankings as a list of teams ahead of OSU since the committee's rankings aren't out yet and OSU tends to beat rated lower in my rankings anyways). 
• Alabama or Florida will suffer at least one more loss.
• Iowa, Michigan St, and michigan would suffer at least one loss (as described above)
• Oklahoma or Oklahoma St will suffer at least one more loss
• Northwestern wouldn't even have played in the Big Ten championship game, and they have 2 losses
• A one-loss Navy is not getting in. Sorry.
• I'm also writing a 3-loss Ole Miss off
• That leaves Alabama/Florida winner, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma/Ok St winner, and Baylor
• I'm not going too far out on a limb by saying only one Big 12 team is getting in. So I'll revise that list to: Alabama/Florida winner, Clemson, ND, Big 12 champ.
• That's four teams/groups ahead of Ohio State, for four available slots. There's still hope!
• Here's was the Buckeyes need to do, or have done for them:
• Beat michigan
• Penn St beats MSU
• Beat Iowa
• Alabama lose to Auburn, then beats Florida in SEC championship
• OR Florida lose to Florida St, then beat Alabama
• OR Clemson lose its final reg. season game or to UNC in the ACC championship
• OR Notre Dame loss (damn, I'll never get a chance to root for ND)
• Note: Only one of OU or Ok St can lose (last game left), so Big 12 spot in final four is secured

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Check back when the other rankings are published!

Comments? Please share below!

NCAAF Rankings after Week 11

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 11, 15 NOV 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 10, 8 NOV 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

.

Highlights in the Top 10:

• I apologize this is incomplete. I had limited time and just wanted to at least post the ratings.

My Take:

• I apologize this is incomplete. I had limited time and just wanted to at least post the ratings.

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

• I apologize this is incomplete. I had limited time and just wanted to at least post the ratings.

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Comments? Please share below!

NFL Rankings after Week 9

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 09 (10 NOV 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 08: (3 NOV 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!

NCAA Football Top 25 (after Week 10)

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 10, 8 NOV 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 09, 1 NOV 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

.

Highlights in the Top 10:

• Iowa still #1, although #2 Clemson is closing the gap. Iowa's lead over Clemson shrunk 4.43 points to less than 1.5 points.
• Ohio State drops one spot, despite winning and two higher ranked teams losing. Oklahoma St leap (9-0) and Alabama (8-1) jumped past the Buckeyes after wins against #12 TCU and #6 LSU, respectively. LSU dropped from #2 to #6 (still above OSU). Michigan St falls out of the top ten, down to #17, after a loss to #55 Nebraska. The Buckeyes did gain rating points, however, the teams that surpassed them in the polls this week gained more with wins over higher quality opponents. I still believe that if OSU can get through November and win the Big Ten Championship, they will climb into the Top Four.
• ND benefited from LSU's loss to move up to #3, however, Alabama is right behind them. Alabama's win over LSU all but erased the gap between them and ND. I project that if both teams win again next week (ND vs Wake Forest, Alabama at Miss St.), Alabama will surpass ND in the rankings.
• #18 Baylor is undefeated, but has not played very many quality opponents (106/121 SoS). 

My Take:

• It's very clear that higher quality opponents makes a difference. Just look at the one-loss teams ranked above some of the undefeated teams.
• As I've mentioned before, if Ohio State wins out, I definitely project them climbing into the Top 4 of my rankings. Although the match-up against Michigan St. has lost some of its luster, MSU, michigan, and Iowa are all quality opponents for the Buckeyes to play down the stretch.

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Comments? Please share below!

NFL Ratings after Week 8

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 08 (3 NOV 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 08: (3 NOV 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!

NCAAF Rankings after Week 9

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 09, 1 NOV 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 08, 24 OCT 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Okay, so I usually only list the Top 25 Teams, but I got a little excited for the first posting of the rankings this season, so there's the Top 60, just because. At least I didn't post all 713 teams included in my standings (from Division IA, IAA, II, and III).

Highlights in the Top 10:

• Iowa ranked #1? Yep. How is this possible? They've played eight games so far (more than 7-0 LSU), so that gives them a little boost. Also, to this point, they've played the toughest schedule of the undefeated teams. So the opponents that they've beaten help raise Iowa's rating above the competition.
• The biggest surprise to me when I saw the rankings for the first time was #4 Notre Dame. Their only loss came to #2 Clemson, but they have beaten #22 USC, #23 Temple, and #26 Navy. The last two teams don't sounds like power houses, but there only losses came to ND. Also, ND has the #12 toughest Strength of Schedule (SoS) so far.
• Michigan State is currently ranked above Ohio State (both 8-0), largely due to beating higher quality opponents (which can be seen by comparing their SoS and Top 3 Wins). This will sort itself out, as these teams are on a collision course set for 21 Nov.
• Speaking of Ohio State... How can the Undefeated, defending National Champions be ranked outside my Top 4? Well, as I've state before, these rankings are a reflection of what has been accomplished so far THIS season. Let's be honest, the teams the Buckeyes have defeated so far aren't exactly top-notch. After Penn St, OSU's highest ranked opponents that they have beaten so far is #59 Indiana and #60 Western Michigan. The Buckeyes have a more difficult schedule in November, so if they keep winning, they will pass some teams ahead of them, if not all. If they can manage victories over #5 MSU and #15 Michigan, and then potentially #1 Iowa in the Big Ten championship, I projected Ohio State to finish at or near the top of my rankings... definitely in my Top 4.
• #10 TCU is the only Big 12 team ranked in my Top 10. TCU (8-0) and #17 Baylor (7-0) have not gotten to the relatively hard parts of their schedules yet (SoS rank of 77 and 109, respectively), so I expect these teams to rise in the rankings if they keep winning.

My Take:

• It's still early. My ratings are very fluid right now... only nine weeks into the season in which most teams have only played 8 games. It will be interesting to see how teams move up and down in the ratings as the season progresses and we get a better idea of these teams... and as my algorithm gets more information to rate them!

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Comments? Please share below!