SSFFL: Year of Change

First off, I apologize for letting so much time pass since I've last written about the Star and Stripes Fantasy Football League. This is America's premier fantasy football league, and I haven't been giving it its proper due. So, for that I am sorry and I'll try to do better!

As I alluded in the title of this post, I feel like this year was a year of change for the SSFFL. I will say upfront, we have many of the league constants: Zach and Jamie at (or near) the top of their divisions, Mike Snyder missing the playoffs, Zach once again playing in the championship, and half of us running out of IR slots midway through the season. However, a lot of things were different for us this year, whether it was by design or just the way things played out.

This year we added two new members (Amanda and Andy) to the league. Going from 10 to 12 teams was not an insignificant change to the league dynamics, as many of the waiver wire skimmers have discovered. Our defending champion (sorry Becky!) is fighting to avoid going from best to worst finish in the league. Our regular season schedules are division centric, and as a result, the playoff structures have also been altered to reflect this. The Stripes Division beat the Stars Division this year for the first time! 

Also, I think there have been some accomplishments worth bringing up:

• Ashley has really turned her team around. Ever since the draft two years ago, she has really improved her team and has been a tough match-up for everyone.
• Andy made the playoffs starting a team from scratch in a league in which owners can keep up to 7 players! 
• Mike Snyder really deserves credit for fighting it out for the entire season. He has another rough start and his team looked like it was heading towards the crapper as usual, but he hung in there and nearly made the playoffs!

Oh yea... let's not forget about the Championship Game!!!! Zach and Ashley duke it out for all the marbles! Zach is a regular to the Championship, making his third appearance in the four-year league history... how's that for consistency? Ashley is making her first appearance in the championship and is hoping to bring the Stars and Stripes Trophy from Hilliard to Beavercreek. Good luck to you both!!!!

Thanks everyone for a great, fun, and competitive season! 

Football Blitz VI

An Ugly Rivalry Win?

Is there such thing as an ugly rivalry win? Yes and no. It depends on the circumstances. What is the history of the rivalry? How bad is the team you barely beat? In rivalry games such as Ohio State v michigan, the Ironbowl, Duke v UNC in basketball, and other top rivalries not mentioned hear, you can throw records and rank out the window. It doesn't matter if Team A is undefeated and Team B is in the gutter. When you give Team B one shot to turn a terrible year into a successful one, anything can happen. Teams and fans who live in this top-notch rivalries know this, and I do not need to harp on this. If you are a part of one of these rivalries, you get it. If you are not, then you believe OSU's 42-41 victory over michigan was an indication of how terrible Ohio State really is. The fact is, OSU's defense did not play well, however, a lot of that was due to michigan playing its best game of the year... by far. Highly motivated, highly impassioned rivalries cannot be measured and calculated on paper. You just have to play. And Team A better not overlook Team B, or Team A will be left wondering how their season went down the drain in a single game.

Who’s Number Two?

After a thrilling weekend in NCAA Football, only two undefeated teams in automatic qualifying (AQ) conferences remain. So, the teams who should play for the title is crystal clear, right? Well, not for some. Florida St. and Ohio State are the undefeated teams and are currently ranked #1 and #2, respectively, in the latest BCS polls. One more week of football remains: Conference Championships. There is a growing contingent that believe if Auburn (who just knocked previously ranked #1 Alabama) win the SEC title game, then they should jump OSU and land the #2 spot.

This would be unprecedented. We’ve seen a one-loss team jump another one-loss team in the final week (2006: Florida jumping michigan). We’ve also seen an undefeated team from an AQ conference left out of the BCS Championship game, but only because there were two other undefeated teams ranked ahead of Auburn. If Ohio State and Florida State both win their respective conference championships, they deserve to play in the National Championship game. Is the schedule tougher in the SEC? Yes. But let’s not get carried away here. The SEC is not significantly better to the point where we can just forget about a loss and ignore an Ohio State team, whom, if they beat Michigan State, will have won 25 straight games. The Big  Ten may be experiencing a down year, but we are not talking about little sisters of the poor. According to Jeff Sagarin’s NCAAF rankings, Auburn is 3-1 against top 30 teams. Ohio State is 2-0. Not a vast difference to justify leap-frogging an undefeated team.

Auburn’s athletic director is in full campaign mode, stating that it would be un-American if Auburn didn’t get the chance to play for the title. Really? Sounds absurd to me. Auburn had a chance to run the table and failed.

A little side note, maybe we should be asking: Who’s number one? It’s funny how everyone is criticizing the Buckeye’s strength of schedule, but no one mentions Florida State’s. Again, according to Jeff Sagarin’s rankings, OSU strength of schedule is slightly better than FSU (61^st vs 66^th), and FSU’s record against top 30 teams: 1-0. If folks swinging from the balls of the SEC want to leap-frog an undefeated school... they might be barking up the wrong tree. Also, for even more FSU title discuss, see Zach Howard's post.

Punishment for Tomlin

In case you missed it, Jacoby Jones (BAL) was racing down the sideline during a kick return. He had just one man to beat. Or so he thought. Mike Tomlin, coach of Pittsburgh, was walking the sideline, inches from the field of play. The replay clearly shows Jones swerve inward, towards the one Steeler defender left to beat, in order to avoid hitting Coach Tomlin. The Steeler defender was then able to tackle him, saving a kick return TD.

Did this cost Baltimore the game? No, they eventually won. But this would have most likely have put the game out of reach. Is it a certainty that Jones would have scored if he didn’t have to swerve around Tomlin? No. It would have been a close, diving effort for the Pittsburgh defender.

I will say, however, this is not small potatoes. A coach clearly interfered with the game. The last time a coach interfered with an outcome of a play (Jets O-line coach tripping an opposing player), he was fired. While Tomlin did not make contact, he did change Jones’ action on the field and quite possibly an outcome of a scoring play. There is talk of a rather large punishment, including a six-figure fine and/or a loss of a Steeler draft pick.

Is this too far for the league? Not in my opinion. I believe the NFL needs to avoid this behavior at all costs. And a heavy punishment would be just the dissuasion needed.

A similar incident recently occurred in the NBA. Nets coach Jason Kidd purposely spilled his soda during the last 30 seconds of a game in order to get a play called and having no timeouts. The NBA let him off with a slap on the wrist, $50,000 fine. That’s a lot of money, but not to him. That is not dissuasion. Let’s hope the NFL provides it’s league with a better definition of dissuasion.

Where are the Silver Bullets?

Will the real Ohio State defense please stand up? I’ve been railing the OSU defense all season long. As I’ve written previously, I believe the Buckeye’s defense has the capability to play great and shutdown their opponents. However, we just haven’t seen it consistently... and in many games, not at all. Ohio State’s D has given up 41 points to michigan, 35 points to Illinois, 34 points to Cal, and 20 points to Buffalo. While the offense has been dominated, and sometimes downright unstoppable, the defense has let the team down. It hasn’t come to a loss, however, it might come to a loss of a National Championship chance. The perception of the Buckeye’s strength of schedule is low, therefore, the nation is expecting OSU to be blowing out their competition if they are a legitimate title contender. Because the defense is giving up so many points, the Buckeyes are not winning too many games in a convincing manner.

If OSU can defeat Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship, the defense MUST play better in order for the Buckeyes to have a chance at being #1 when it’s all over.

Why Florida State won’t play for a National Championship

By Zachary Howard

Florida State’s football team has been dominant this year.  They are undefeated at 11-0 and sit comfortably at #2 in the BCS standings.  They will almost certainly win their last two games to finish 13-0 before the final BCS rankings come out.  But they won’t play for a National Championship.  Jameis Winston has been superb at QB for the Seminoles this season.  He is widely considered the frontrunner for the Heisman award.  And he may very well be the most outstanding player in college football this year.  But he won’t win it.

When voters fill out their Heisman ballots and make their final BCS selections, the issue that will be on people’s minds will have nothing to do with football, when it comes to Winston and Florida State.  The factor that will keep Winston from winning the Heisman and stop Florida State from reaching the National Championship will be allegations against Winston from something that happened off the field last December.  The reality is that he is being accused of rape, a very serious matter which obviously transcends football, championships, and trophies.  The problem is that when voters need to make a decision about Winston and the Seminoles, there will be no clarity on the rape case.  It is unlikely that Winston will be charged before the final BCS standings come, if at all.  Same for when the Heisman ballots are due.  Without knowing how all of this will play out, voters in both cases will have a hard time keeping their choice really just about the football, and the question is: should they?  The Heisman Trophy’s mission statement is to recognize the “outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity.”  The last part is key.  Has Jameis Winston shown integrity?  It’s entirely possible that he didn’t do anything wrong and will never even be charged with a crime.  On the other hand, he may have committed rape.  Whether he is charged or not, the truth may never be known.  The only two people who know for certain are Winston and the accuser, making it his word against hers.  While it would be an incredible injustice to Winston if he really is innocent, and still loses out on the Heisman and a National Championship opportunity, what about the opposite possibility?  What if he is given the most prestigious individual award in college football and leads Florida State to a National Championship, and then it later comes out that he did rape this woman?  Can voters really put his name first on their Heisman ballots knowing that this is a possibility?  Likewise, can voters send a Winston-lead Florida State team to the National Championship, ignoring the moral implications if Winston is later found to be guilty?  Especially if Alabama and Ohio State win out, it will be easier to put those two ahead of Florida State and avoid this dilemma altogether.

They will also need to consider the possibility of Winston being charged and then suspended after the final BCS standings are released, but before the championship game.  A Winston-less Florida State team will not be considered a major contender, and will decrease the quality of the National Championship game.  Worst-case scenario, Alabama and Florida State finish the season in the top two spots, but Jameis Winston is charged and can’t play.  If Alabama blows out Florida State, the victory will be not be given credibility as a matchup of the top two teams in the country.  It will cheapen the win for Alabama and leave everyone with a sour taste in their mouths at the end of the season, forcing the question: “What if?”  While the moral issues weigh more heavily in my mind, I think this will be a major factor for many voters.  A combination of the two will be enough, in my opinion, to keep Florida State out of the championship and prevent Winston from winning the Heisman.  And this should be a reminder to players, fans, coaches, and pundits that sometimes, it’s about more than just the football.

BCS: Who's Number Two?

Week 12 BCS Standings (11 Nov 2013)

Rank     Team           BCS Avg

#1         Alabama      0.9958

#2         Florida St    0.9619

#3         Ohio State   0.8926

#4         Stanford*    0.8689

#5         Baylor         0.8618

*Only team listed above with a loss (to Utah)

The top 5 of the BCS are shown above. As long as all hell doesn't break loose, which has happened recently (see 2007), these are the teams with a viable chance at playing for the National Championship this year. Remember, this is the last year for the current BCS format, in which the top 2 teams play for the title. A more detailed list of teams and poll breakdown in the current BCS standings can be found here (note: the Week 12 standings are discussed in this post).

The Case for #2

First thing is first: there probably won't be much argument around the country about who deserves to be ranked #1 in the BCS. Alabama is the two-time defending champion. They are playing very good football right now, fresh off a dominant performance against LSU, pulling away in the second half. But who is #2? I'll make the case for the Buckeyes:

I've been tough on the Buckeye's defense this year. I've written more than a few times how the OSU defense was not playing like a top 10 unit, and how it would have to improve for OSU to live up to the preseason hype. Even though the competition has been sub-par of late, the defense has gotten better. Combined with the potent offense and examining the other undefeated teams vying for the #2 spot, OSU is well rounded enough to earn the second spot in the title game.

I'm taking Stanford out of (my) discussion right off the bat. Yes, they beat Oregon (Thanks, by the way!). However, this does not erase the loss to Utah. Especially, if the other currently undefeated teams win out and win their conferences. Double especially if they have to play a conference championship game to do it (sorry Baylor). 

Another common criticism against the Buckeyes is their strength of schedule (SOS). That's a fair point. The Big Ten is experiencing another down year and isn't highly looked upon right now. However, to use that argument solely against OSU would be an oversight. If you are going to bring up SOS, look it up for everyone. According to the Sagarin Rankings (which is used for the computer component in the BCS rankings), the Buckeyes have 81st best SOS (there are 120 teams in the FBS). Not good. However, the rest of the undefeated teams in the top 5 aren't that impressive either: Alabama-42, Florida St-62, Baylor-96. Not exactly impressive all the way around. Particular among the teams vying for the #2 spot... there is not enough of a differentiator here.

How about big wins? Florida St has wins over then-ranked #3 Clemson and #7 Miami. The Buckeyes have wins over then-ranked #23 Wisconsin and #16 Northwestern. Although, NW has tanked since, the Badgers look to be improving since playing OSU. Baylor has defeated then-ranked #10 Oklahoma. Up coming games: FSU has Flordia the ACC title game. OSU will play at michigan and probably Michigan St in the Big Ten Championship Game. Baylor has Oklahoma State and Texas on the schedule.

I do not see any legitimate, compelling, overwhelming evidence that any of these three teams should be decisively ranked #2 over the others. Right now, it's based solely on perception. The Big Ten is perceived to be down, so that hurts the Buckeyes chances. Not many pollsters bought into Baylor early on, so they are suffering from beginning the season ranked lower than OSU and FSU. Florida St has a few flashy wins on a big stage, which has them as the solid, nearly-undisputed #2 team right now. I respect those who have the opinion that FSU is #2, however, I strongly disagree at the suggestion that it's a slam dunk. One thing in the Buckeye's favor is, in my opinion, the winning streak dating back to last year. Yes, you have to be careful when factoring in last year's performance into this season, but answer this: Do you think the fact that Alabama being ranked undisputed #1 has anything to do with the fact that it is the two-time defending champion? Is part of the Big Ten's perception problems last year's bowl performance? I believe the answer to these question is, to some degree, yes. Therefore, why not consider (if even a small fraction in the total decision) that fact that the Buckeyes have been tested for the past two years, and if OSU finishes undefeated this year, they will be 25-0. 

BCS Prediction

What is going happen in the last month of the season? There is a lot of football to be played, a lot of losses to be dealt. I believe that we will have two undefeated teams at the end of the year. Here's my (somewhat?) bold prediction: Alabama loses one game, either to Auburn or in the SEC title game. Baylor will lose at least one game. Stanford--even though at of my discussion cannot be discounted in the BCS--will lose at least one game. Ohio State and Florida St, the only undefeated teams left, will play for the National Championship.

Final Irony

One last thing to keep in mind: Who should Buckeye fans be rooting against? Obviously, both teams ranked above OSU (Alabama and FSU). But what about Stanford and Baylor? Conventional wisdom might be to root against both of those teams as well, but let's take a closer look.

If you've ever watched a race (whether is NASCAR or what ever your preference), the best thing for your favorite driver nearing the end of the race when he has the lead is the two guys behind him jockeying for second. Neither of the runner-up drivers can run the line they'd prefer to on the track, and the guy in first pulls away from the pack.

Well, that's the situation right now for #4 Stanford and #5 Baylor. Baylor is favored in the human polls, while Stanford is favored above Baylor in the computers. If Baylor were to lose, one would assume that the voters (who put Stanford #5 and Baylor #4) would then vote Stanford #4, thus giving them a better human poll component in the BCS average. How much better? If you simply give Stanford the human poll values that Baylor is receiving right now at #4, then Stanford's overall BCS avg rises to 0.8918, just eight-thousandths shy of OSU. Too close for comfort, if you ask me.

Ohio State fans would rather both lose (obviously). But if they won't both lose, then they need Baylor and Stanford to jockey for position. Split the points up among two teams, rather than let one retain them all (particularly Stanford, who at the time of this post is better positioned to creep up on the Buckeyes).

MLB Post-Season Wrap-up

Below I have posted the results of the MLB playoffs. My picks, based solely on my MLB rankings, are compared to the results. Overall, my rankings did a fairly decent job of predicting the outcomes. Correct picks are in green, incorrect picks in red. I successfully picks the World Series match-up. Andy while I had St. Louis winning the championship in 7, Boston actually won in 6. The World Series and the AL Divisional Series between Detroit and Oakland were the only series that I missed.

The World Series had a few unique game ending moments. One in particular was the first ever walk-off obstruction call in World Series history. If you missed the play, you can see the video here and see/read the rule explained here. I'd like to get your take on the play and the call. Was the right call made? In my opinion, yes. The way I interpret the rule, the intent of the obstructing player does not matter. The two questions are: Does he have the ball? Is he impeding the runner? If he doesn't have the ball and he is impeding the runner, that is interference. (A side note: I believe there was intent to interfere as well. If you watch the video, you will see the third baseman's legs raise in the air as the runner tries to jump over his hip area.).

Right call? Wrong call? I'd like to hear your thoughts. Although, in the grand scheme of the Series, that game couldn't slow down Big Papi and the Red Sox, who clinched their third World Series Championship in a decade.

Football Blitz V

NFL Rankings

After seven weeks into the NFL season, I've posted my first release of my NFL rankings. I use exactly the same methodology in these rankings as I did with my MLB rankings (you can read more here). One difference you will notice is my program also prints out each team's top wins. I've set that number to three, currently. 

Just a few quick interesting notes:

• Kansas City is #1, which isn't too much of a surprise since they are the only undefeated team remaining.
• Denver dropped to #8 after losing to Indy. This in large part is driven by the quality of competition: the best of their six wins is #14 ranked Dallas.
• Indianapolis is ranked #4 and is the highest ranked two-loss team. They have wins over #2 Seattle, #5 San Francisco, and #8 Denver.

BCS

This is the first week of the BCS standings, released after the 8th week of NCAA. Alabama, Florida State, Oregon, Ohio State, and Missouri make up the top 5 and are all undefeated teams. Miami (#7),  Baylor (#8), and Texas Tech (#10) are also undefeated from major football conferences. If they win out, they would also likely be in the mix near the end of the season.

I know there is a lot of football left, and a lot of loses to hand out, but let's create some doomsday scenarios to spin our wheels out on for a while. After all, what else would we talk about for the Week 8 BCS standings?

Let's say that the top 4 teams remain undefeated. Who goes to the national championship game? Unfortunately for two schools, this is the last year for the current BCS system, and they would be left out. But which two? I believe we could assume Alabama would safely be in the championship game. And rightfully so. They are the two-time defending champs. In my mind, that alone should guarantee Alabama any tie-breakers over other conference champions with the same number of losses. They also have public perception on their side (mostly deserved, but I would argue to a lesser extent than most). Florida State and Oregon both have an inside track over Ohio State. This is likely due to strength of schedule and the perceived weakness of the Big Ten.  Again, I wouldn't argue this too much, except for maybe how far many analysts take it. It would most likely come down to a very close number crunching between FSU and Oregon. And if you only considered this season, I think it would be fair, based on strength of schedule, for it to come down to FSU and Oregon.

However, and this is where I might get into some trouble, if the Buckeyes were able to finish this season undefeated, they would be 25-0 in the last two seasons combined. Could you omit that from a championship game? And before you get too bent out of shape at me for including last season in this argument, consider this: Did you feel the same way went I mentioned Alabama should be guaranteed a spot for being the two-time defending champs? Because that is the exact same logic that I just applied to OSU.

But, as I mentioned, there is still plenty of time for upsets. Undefeated teams ranked outside the top two should not be concerned with anything right now... except for beating their next opponent.

SSFFL

Time for a Stars and Stripes Fantasy Football League update!

It's been a very interesting first half of the regular season. Both divisions are being dominated by two teams, while the rest are struggling to reach the .500 mark. Eric and Zach top the Stars, while Jamie and Ashley lead the Stripes. 

The race for the 3rd playoff spot in each division will be tight down the stretch. In the Stars Division, 2 games separates last place from the playoffs, and it's only one game difference in the Stripes.

And finally, after the mid-season two-week interdivisional play, the Stars v. Stripes competition is tied up at 6 all... leaving everything to be settled in Rivalry Week (week 13)!

Football Blitz IV

NCAAF Playoff Committee

The NCAA Football playoff committee was announced recently. The committee will be comprised of 13 members and will be chaired by Arkansas athletic director Jeff Long. You can review the rest of members here, but a few notables are Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez, former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former Nebraska coach/AD Tom Osborne and football royalty Archie Manning. 

Their mission is supposedly simple: to determine the best four teams in college football. To me, however, this is a flawed premise. We should be looking for the four most deserving teams in college football. There is a big difference, in my opinion, between "best" and "most deserving". "Best" is fairly subjective. Many people would believe that a one-loss Alabama team (that did not win the SEC) would be better than an undefeated Big Ten, Big 12, PAC 12, or ACC champion... and they may be right, and I might agree. However, the more deserving team would be a major conference champion that ran the table. Luckily, there are four playoffs spots, so both teams would be get, but you can imagine a scenario in which a two-loss, non-SEC-championship Alabama would be compared to a one-loss Big Ten Champion for the fourth spot. Who gets in now? Who is better? Very subjective. Who is more deserving? That could be tough to determine objectively, but you would at least have some objective measures to helping you decide, such as: Winning your conference, strength of schedule, etc. 

Another scary thing is that some on the committee eluded to the fact that they would factor in injuries into their decision. If a team was left out of the playoff solely due to an injury (i.e., that team would have been included if a key player was healthy), that would be a travesty. A team should be judged on its body of work, not how the committee thinks the team will perform with or without a key player.

The committee will also select teams for the Cotton, Fiesta, and Chick-fil-A bowls, and rank the champion of the non-Power conferences, which will receive a spot in one of the six major bowls.

Revisiting NFL Pre-Season Picks

After six weeks into the season, so let's how my pre-season picks compare to the current NFL standings. This time, we'll take a look at the NFC:

NFC North (2013 Week 6 Standings)      NFC North (Picks)
Detroit (4-2)                                               Green Bay
Chicago (4-2)                                             Chicago
Green Bay (3-2)                                         Detroit
Minnesota (1-4)                                          Minnesota

This division is fairly tight among the top 3, but I would be surprised if my pick in Green Bay did not win the division. Even though the Packers offensive line is terrible and they have suffered some injuries in their skill positions, I believe Aaron Rodgers can lead  his team to a division championship. The ground game is also improving in Green Bay, which will take some of the pressure off of Rodgers. Don't get me wrong, Detroit and Chicago both a reasonable chance to win the division, but I expect GB to finish stronger than these two.

NFC East (2013 Week 6 Standings)      NFC East (Picks)
Dallas (3-3)                                               Washington
Philadelphia (3-3)                                      Dallas
Washington (1-4)                                      NY Giants
NY Giants (0-6)                                        Philadelphia

Wow. Not what I expected after the first six weeks. Even though I did pick the Giants to finish 3rd in the NFC East, I did not expect them to look this poorly. The Giants performance is really inexplicable. The pieces from last year have not changed significantly, yet the offense and defense both look more dis-functional than the Jets! The Redskins have not looked good, but keep in mind RG3 did not play in the preseason. Can he turn the season around, or have we seen a new, post-injury RG3? Dallas, once again, seems to be a legitimate contender if they keep from shooting themselves in the foot. I would describe the Eagles as opportunistic. I don't believe they are the second best team in the division, but they are taking advantage of the poor showing in the first six weeks of the season by the entire division. Dallas and Philadelphia play a huge division game in Week 7.

NFC South (2013 Week 6 Standings)      NFC South (Picks)
New Orleans (5-1)                                     New Orleans
Carolina (2-3)                                            Atlanta
Atlanta (1-4)                                              Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay (0-5)                                       Carolina

I'm not shocked in the least by how well the Saints are playing. They are currently comfortably in the driver's seat of the NFC South. I expected that Atlanta would be in close contention for the division, however, the Falcons have been anything but impressive. Given that Carolina isn't exactly setting the world on fire either, I still have confidence (and the belief) that Atlanta will finish second in the South. However, I do have serious doubts regarding Atlanta making the playoffs (recall I picked Atlanta for a wildcard spot). By the way, somebody tell Tampa Bay that the season has started...

NFC West (2013 Week 6 Standings)      NFC West (Picks)
Seattle (5-1)                                               San Francisco
San Francisco (4-2)                                    Seattle
St. Louis (3-3)                                            Arizona
Arizona (3-3)                                             St. Louis

If I had the chance to reorder my picks in the NFC West, I would switch the order of the top 2 teams. I don't think Seattle is leaps and bounds better than San Francisco, and I would not be surprised in the least if SF ends up winning this division, but Seattle has looked much more impressive so far. Seattle beat SF pretty handily at home (29-3), and lost a close one to Indy (28-34) on the road. The 49ers also lost to Indy, but that game was played in SF and wasn't pretty (7-27). St. Louis and Arizona both are two teams in no man's land. They aren't great, but they aren't terrible. It's a coin flip to see how then end up in the bottom of this division.

Football Blitz III

The Buckeyes

Ohio State pulled out two high-quality wins since the last Football Blitz. First, a 31-24 victory at home over #23 Wisconsin, and then a 40-30 win at #16 Northwestern. While these two teams are quality opponents, I am still less than impressed with OSU's secondary. Sure, against Wisconsin the defensive game plan was to take away the ground game. However, all too often, the Badger's QB found WR Jared Abbrederis (or as many us of know him better as Wisc's #4) wide open for an easy 10, 20, plus game to keep the drive going. Northwestern also had success moving the ball against the Buckeyes' defense. I was very happy to here Meyer comment on the soft coverage and admit that it was something that was going to be worked on during the bye week. Ohio State's next real tough test will be at michigan, but don't write off Penn St (ever) or Purdue (see 1-5 Purdue, 2009).

Despite being critical of the defense, I was impressed with the Buckeyes' previous two wins. Unlike many, I was concerned about the tough road test Northwestern would pose. Going back-to-back night game wins against Wisconsin and at Northwestern with Braxton Miller returning to the lineup gives me confidence that this team can pull out close wins against the elite in the Big Ten. However, the defense will need to improve a decent amount to be able to pull out close games against the elite schools in the nation.

Revisiting NFL Pre-Season Picks

We are a little over a quarter (through Week 5) into the season, so let's how my pre-season picks compare to the current NFL standings. This week, we'll take a look at the AFC:

AFC North (2013 Week 5 Standings)      AFC North (Picks)
Baltimore  (3-2)                                        Cincinnati      
Cleveland (3-2)                                         Baltimore    
Cincinnati (3-2)                                         Pittsburgh    
Pittsburgh (0-4)                                         Cleveland

To be honest, I don't know what to make of this division. Baltimore has predictably taken a step back, but now that they seem to have remembered their stud Ray Rice, their offense is improving. Andy Dalton has yet to turn the corner for the Bengals. I still believe Cincinnati has a good chance to make the playoffs, but I'm not sure it's going to come from winning the AFC North. Cleveland, in my mind, is out playing itself. I think the Browns are in for a let down during the six weeks, based on their upcoming schedule. As far as the Steelers, I'm feeling pretty confident about my 3rd place pick for them. I believe I needed a bad start from the Steeler to spot Cincy a few games in order for the Steelers to actually finish 3rd in the division. I don't see it being a problem for Pittsburgh to finish the season ahead of the  Browns, I just hope they don't surpass the Bengals at some point.

AFC East (2013 Week 5 Standings)      AFC East (Picks)
New England (4-1)                                 New England
Miami (3-2)                                            Miami
NY Jets (3-2)                                         Buffalo
Buffalo (2-3)                                           NY Jets

No surprise at the top in this division, except for maybe that the Patriots were beat by Cincy AND Tom Brady's TD streak came to an end! Although, you have to give New England credit, they are getting by pretty well with a lack of their offensive firepower they've enjoyed the last couple of seasons. I don't think Miami will have too much trouble holding on to the 2nd spot as the season progresses. The Jets are not as good as their record indicates. Overall, I'm feeling pretty good about this division panning out fairly close to how I've called it.

AFC South (2013 Week 5 Standings)      AFC South (Picks)
Indianapolis (4-1)                                      Indianpolis
Tennessee (3-2)                                        Houston
Houston (2-3)                                           Tennessee
Jacksonville (0-5)                                     Jacksonville

There's been a lot of talk in Houston regarding Schaub at QB. Is he still the guy? I believe he is for the remainder of the year. I think it would be a mistake replace him, unless they can sign another big name. I don't see Yates faring any better. In the meantime, Indy is looking good atop this division with two solid wins against SF and Seattle. And Jacksonville has the rest of the NFL talking retraction.

AFC West (2013 Week 5 Standings)      AFC West (Picks)
Denver (5-0)                                           Denver
Kansas City (5-0)                                   Kansas City
Oakland (2-3)                                         San Diego
San Diego (2-3)                                      Oakland

Let's state the obvious: Denver looks great. I do wonder about their defense. While P. Manning is basically having his way on offense, the Bronco's defense surrendered 48 points to Dallas in Week 5. Kansas City has surprised me. I picked them to finish 2nd in this division, but that was because of a lack of confidence in the other teams, not due to the fact that I felt the Chiefs would look so good. As far as San Diego and Oakland... I think it all depends on how the QBs fare during the bulk of the season. If Philips can play as he was once expected, the Chargers could make a run at 2nd place in the West. And if Pryor can develop into a solid pro quarterback, the Raiders might not be too far away either.

Final 2013 MLB Regular Season Rankings

Final Rankings

Below is a snapshot of the Top 15 MLB teams for the 2013 regular season. The full rankings can be seen on the MLB Rankings tab of this blog. The delta ratings and W/L are calculated from 8 Sep, so you can see the change in performance over the last three weeks of the season. The teams that made the playoffs for the AL and NL are colored in blue and red, respectively. The teams that are underlined won their division. If you are unfamiliar with my MLB rating system, check out this post for an explanation.

St. Louis and Boston tied for the best records in baseball, but the Cardinals edged out the Red Sox for the top spot in the final standings by a half point. The Dodgers finally cooled off during the last three weeks of the season, dropping below a rating of 100 and into third place. Cleveland finished the regular season on a 10-game winning streak, and winning 16 out of their last 20, shoot up to fifth place. The Redlegs did not finish the season well, dropping to 9th place and having the second worst delta rating of the entire league in the last three weeks of the season.

An interesting note is that the top 10 teams in my rankings correspond to the ten teams that made the playoffs. Does that give some credence to my rankings? Perhaps. However, I think it speaks more to the marathon baseball season truly getting the best teams from each league in the playoffs. Also, it just so happened to work out that the top 5 teams in each league were among the top 10 overall. For example, look at spots 10 and 11. Washington (NL) was six-hundredths of a point from cracking the top 10 instead of Detroit (AL). Despite that though, my rankings would have picks the top 5 from each league making the playoffs. Had Washington been ranked above Detroit in the final standings, it would have been irrelevant because Washington (NL) and Detroit (AL) are not competing for the same playoff spot being in different leagues.

Post-Season Predictions

I'm going to strictly use my final predictions pick the results of the post-season. At the time of writing this post, the one-game playoffs have already been played, so I will not predict those games. Instead, I will compare what my ratings would have projected.

My predictions, based entirely on my final rankings, are shown below in blue. Quickly reviewing the 1-game series, my rankings would have correctly picked Pittsburgh, but incorrectly picked Cleveland to advance. I won't lose too much sleep over that, as you will tend to find more anomalies in a smaller sample size (one-game series). I have the Cardinal and Dodgers in the NLCS, and the Red Sox and the A's in the ACLS, with St. Louis over Boston in the World Series.

I'll make things a bit more interesting by taking things a step further... I will also predict the number of games each series will take based on the separation of the teams' rankings. This will be completely arbitrary because I have no basis of history for this, but we'll see if a can't make myself look more like an idiot. Also, the underdog having its ace on the mound in a playoff environment (not to mention playing at least one game at home) can really skew things, but I will not take that into account, just looking at the number only!

Division Series (best of 5):

St. Louis over Pittsburgh in 4, LA over Atlanta in 5, Boston over Tampa Bay in 3, Oakland over Detroit in 3

League Championships (best of 7):

St. Louis over LA in 5, Boston over Oakland in 6

World Series (best of 7):

St. Louis over Boston in 7

Most Likely Upsets

Okay, up to this point, my predictions have been based entire on my final ratings. Ratings aren't prefect. In fact, they are a reflection of previous performance, not predictors of future events. We like to use past performance to predict future outcomes, but upsets do occur. That's why we play the games. So let's take a few moments to look at potential upsets:

AL

• Tampa Bay is hot! They are have 4 straight road elimination games. I would not be surprised to see TB play Boston pretty tough.
• If we see an Oakland vs Boston in the ALCS, Oakland could upset Boston. The teams split the season series this year 3-3, and the A's finished the year on a positive note, winning 7 of their last 10.

NL

• I would strongly consider picking Atlanta over LA, especially given that the Braves will have home field advantage. Also, Atlanta won the season series 5-2 against the Dodgers.
• I believe the NCLS will be close, whoever plays St. Louis between ATL and LA. Both teams hold a 4-3 season series edge over the Cardinals, but I still expect the Cardinals to win... but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't.

Football Blitz II

SSFFL

Let's kick off with some premier fantasy football league coverage:

Since week 1, Amanda and Andy have each recorded their first SSFFL league win! Amanda has racked up two, actually, defeating two heavy weights in the Stripes division.

It's early, but the cream is already starting to rise to the top. The Stars division is led by Zach and Eric, and the Stripes are led by Jamie!

Biggest surprises thus far (and yes, it's still early!):

Positive surprise: Amanda sitting at 2-1

Negative surprise: Becky at 0-3 (Between this season and last, Becky has really taken some close losses)

Flacco or Flucco?

In part 2 of our Flacco or Flucco saga, we will quickly investigate a few pertinent stats.

Flucco's total QB rating is 48.6 through his first three games. 

(Remember, total QBR is a relatively new statistic that gives a more accurate measure of a QB's performance than simply the QB rating. Total QBR ranges from 0-100, and you can find a much more detailed explanation here.)

Flucco ranks 20th in total QBR. 20th. Are we surprised? No. But if you look at his salary and believe the media hype surrounding him, you'd expect him to be in the Top 5. I'm not sure who the sports broadcasters were watching last year, but this is pretty typical Flucco performance.

If you look at your standard QB rating, you'll find Flucco ranks 24th. He ranks 17th in completion percentage, 19th in passing yards, 23rd in passings TDs, and 27th in yards per attempt. 

Stay tuned. There's still plenty of season remaining for Flucco to rebound...

Buckeye Football!

I almost waited until the next Football Blitz to talk about the Buckeyes because OSU has only played Florida A&M since the previous Blitz, and the Buckeyes have a HUGE game tonight against Wisconsin... But, how can you not mention a 76-0 win? Sub-par competition? Sure. But every big school plays some pretty lousy competition sometime throughout the season. However, it's not every week your "backup" (?) QB throws for a school record 6 TDs.

The biggest question surrounding the Buckeyes is what to do at the QB position. Does Miller automatically reclaim his spot? Or does Meyer roll with with hot hand in Guiton? My concern is Miller coming off the bench for the past 2 weeks cold and playing some stiff competition. Will he be ready to jump into game speed against the Buckeye's (most likely) second toughest game of the season? Meyer has listed both QBs as co-starters, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the quarterbacks. 

Football Blitz I

Hi everyone, this is the first "Football Blitz" post. Football Blitz will feature my quick take on several unrelated football topics from the NCAA and/or NFL. Enjoy! (A side note: I've been working on this post for a little while, but I haven't been able to actually sit down and complete it until  recent. So, unfortunately, some of these topics are a little dated).

Buckeye Football:

The Ohio State University opened up the season against Buffalo. The Buckeyes gave up three TD's, one coming from a pick-six. I was particularly interested to see how the Buckeyes' defense would perform after losing so much talent from last year. In my opinion, the defense could use some work. It was defense's live game action, I know, but giving up two touchdowns to Buffalo doesn't exactly thrill me. The defense will need to improve for OSU to live up to the lofty expectations of this season... and I believe it will. As a whole, I did not think the Buckeyes played up to the #2 ranking they have been given. However, I do think there is enough room for improvement to earn that ranking in the upcoming games.

Delayed Post Update: Buckeyes beat SDSU 42-7 and Cal 52-34. The Buckeye defense was sub-par in the Cal game... giving up 34 points to this team is unacceptable. Since I first started this post, the Buckeyes slid to #4 in the AP poll. This unit is not playing like a defense of a Top 10 team. We haven't seen a consistent Buckeye D since Tressel left. I hope this changes soon, because OSU will need it to reach its full potential.

The Manziel Circus:

As almost everyone knows by now, Johnny Manziel signed thousands of autographs on numerous occasions. It has been alleged he was paid six figures for these signings, which would be a violation of NCAA rules. There was much speculation surrounding Texas A&M, prior to the start of the college football season, on whether they should or would play Manziel, in the event he was found ineligible by the NCAA, forcing A&M to forfeit any games in which he played. That speculation was put to an end prior to Texas A&M's first game when the NCAA ruled, based on Manziel's testimony to NCAA officials, that Manziel only contributed to someone else's profit based on his signatures (which is a lesser violation of the NCAA rules). He was suspended for the first half of A&M's first game. The NCAA said that there was no evidence that he was paid for the autographs, but if more evidence came to light, the NCAA could alter the ruling.

This was the right call. Even though many sources say he was paid, and common sense and my gut tell me he definitely was, the NCAA needs definitive proof to suspend a player (or rule him completely ineligible as a college athlete). A penalty of significant magnitude requires a certain amount of concrete proof that we just don't have without one of the autograph agents ratting Manziel out.

Flacco or Flucco?
Is Joe Flacco (Raven's QB) a great quarterback, or does he just fluke into wins? Definitely the latter. Flucco finished the 2012 season outside the Top 20 in QB rating. So how did he lead his team to a Super Bowl championship last year? Admittedly, he did improve his play in the post-season. Somewhat. However, the biggest reason of Flucco's success is his receivers bailing him out on terrible passes. Anquan Boldin in particular. I can't count how many times Joe passed over an open Ray Rice outlet pass for a guaranteed first down in favor of an ill-fated heave down the field to a double (or triple) covered Boldin or Jacoby Jones. Pass incomplete. Drive over. Ray Rice can no longer earn points for his fantasy owners. Time and time again we've seen this. Unfortunately, his fantastic receivers bailed him out enough to keep enabling this behavior.

After winning the Super Bowl, Flucco signed a monster contract, worth well over $100 million. Is he worth that much? No. Not even close. But, the market demand worked out in his favor. Who else would be the Ravens QB if he walked?

SSFFL
Of course the Watercooler provides coverage of the Stars and Stripes Fantasy Football League! Is it, after all, the premier fantasy football league in the United States (and therefore, world). In week 1, Amanda and Andy played in their first SSFFL game. They had tough tasks, Amanda and Andy taking on Ashley and myself, respectively. I had a solid win over Andy, but Ashley went nuts and poor Amanda didn't stand a chance. Other winners in week 1 include: Brian (def Becky), Eric (def Dan), Zach (def Adam), and Jamie (def Snyder).

NFL Preseason Picks

The NFL is back! The first game is tonight and I'll kick off the NFL season by picking the division results,  playoff teams, conference champions, and the Super Bowl winner for this season. Just don't laugh too hard after the season plays out and my predictions go up in smoke.

Division Result and Playoff Teams:

(Playoff Teams underlined)

AFC North

1) Cincinnati

2) Baltimore

3) Pittsburgh

4) Cleveland

AFC East

1) New England

2) Miami

3) Buffalo

4) NY Jets

AFC South

1) Indianapolis

2) Houston

3) Tennessee

4) Jacksonville

AFC West

1) Denver

2) Kansas City

3) San Diego

4) Oakland

NFC North

1) Green Bay

2) Chicago

3) Detroit

4) Minnesota

NFC East

1) Washington

2) Dallas

3) NY Giants

4) Philadelphia

NFC South

1) New Orleans

2) Atlanta

3) Tampa Bay

4) Carolina

NFC West

1) San Francisco

2) Seattle

3) Arizona

4) St. Louis

Playoff Predictions:

AFC Champion: Denver

NFC Champion: Green Bay

Super Bowl Champion: Denver

Point/Counter-Point: Paying College Athletes

Hello everyone! This is the Watercooler's first Point/Counter-Point debate (P/CP), and the topic is: Paying College Athletes. Brian Boeke will join me for the opposing view point. The premise of this topic is simple. NCAA football and basketball make the universities gobs of money. Should college athletes get a slice of the pie?

Michael: In a word: No. College athletes should not be paid to play. I will argue that the athletes are already getting paid: full cost of tuition and meal plan. This is quite a substantial amount of reimbursement alone. Even at a relatively inexpensive in-state tuition would cost, at minimum, over $10,000. The athlete is able to get admitted into a place of higher education and get a free degree while participating in a sport they love. Many ordinary students struggle to gain admittance, pay tuition, and have large student loans to payback after graduating. I believe many people underestimate the true value the universities are providing to the student athletes. They are being allowed to showcase their talents to the professional sports world on an enormous platform that is college sports these days. They are given free education that will propel them into a successful, fruitful future if they take advantage of the education being provided.

One argument I absolutely cannot stand is this "if we give the athletes stipends, then they won't take bribes illegally from boosters." Really? Here's a case-in-point that destroys that argument. Johnny Manziel comes from a very well-off family (from oil money). Did that stop him from signing hundreds of memorabilia for a five-figure fee (by the way, five figures is peanuts to him and his family)? Nope. At this point, three memorabilia agents have already come forward and acknowledged paying Manziel for autographs.

I'll conclude by also arguing that this would create unintended consequences, as well as create an unfair recruiting environment. As far as the former, if you pay athletes from the moneymaking sports (football and men's basketball), then Title IX mandates that you must pay all other athletes at the university. Oh by the way, all other sports operate in the red, and are funded in part by the profit generated from football and men's basketball. Take away some of that profit by enforcing stipends to all athletes, and you end up with the universities able (or choosing) to fund less varsity sports, stripping many college athletes of the chance to play varsity sports. Also, bigger universities could afford to pay their student athletes more. This becomes a moot point if you set an NCAA limit, however, certain schools' would have an extremely large advantage as far as what their boosters could afford.


Brian: The question of paying athletes has been around a long time, and it will likely continue for years to come. It is a tough question. On one hand, you have some universities making tens of millions of dollars on sporting events and merchandise. This money could never come if the student athletes did not perform. One the other hand, most (not all) athletes are getting a free education. In addition, they receive a stipend for living expenses, intended to cover the “room and board” of college. In my opinion, athletes should not be paid via contracts or additional stipends similar to a professional, but they should be able to capitalize on their name and success if they are in a position to do so.

The big story in the news is the situation surrounding Johnny Manziel. He apparently signed hundreds of items at several signing sessions for which he was paid. This is a big no-no per the extensive NCAA rulebook. The last time I checked, we live in the United States of America. We are one of the most capitalistic countries in the world. We promote taking advantage of opportunities presented to us. I believe the fact the NCAA denies big time college athletes this right goes against a major tenant that makes this country so great.

The arguments against paying athletes make a lot of sense. Universities cannot afford to fund an athletic department in which the athletes are making some sort of an additional stipend. Yes, the football and basketball programs make millions for some schools, but very few others turn any sort of a profit. I cannot argue against this. I just think if an athlete has the skill level to achieve national recognition and create demand, they should be able to capitalize on it. If a school is selling jerseys with their number on it, they should get a cut. While they don’t have their name on it, it is clear the fans are buying those jerseys because of the player wearing it. Going back to Manziel, it is obvious people desired items with his signature. There should be no restrictions on him taking advantage of this opportunity. This trickles down Brianwas able to make a few bucks off a Big Ten championship ring and was punished for it. While I don’t condone this from a team perspective, I think he should have the opportunity to do this if he desires. Many more examples can be discussed here, but I think you get the point.

Hopefully I have been clear in my delineation between payment for participation and capitalization on fame. For some athletes, the college years are the high point of their athletic careers. The NCAA regulations do not allow them to capitalize on their fame, which can be very fleeting. I believe this is at odds with fundamental values of this country and should be changed.


Michael: You make some good points, Brian. I’m glad you draw a distinction between paying athletes as opposed to letting the players capitalize on their achievements. You are against the universities flat out paying them, but would support the latter. This is, in my mind, a lesser evil, but I’m afraid even that system could be unfairly manipulated. For example, let’s say a certain university (Oregon) has a strong tie to Nike, and Nike agrees to make loads of jerseys for a player to help that school recruit young athletes with the promise of making more money through jersey sales than he could elsewhere. Or, a university with power and rich boosters that could guarantee the purchasing of jerseys and selling of autographs.

Yes, this is the United States of America, land of opportunity. But unless you want college athletics to turn into which universities can flex their monetary powers to entice the greatest student athletes, let’s allow the athlete the opportunity to capitalize on their college success after their collegiate career.


Brian: Both the initial and rebuttal argument seems to give the feel that boosters don’t have a tremendous influence on recruiting, which is fundamentally flawed. Yes, Oregon does have strong ties with Nike because Phil Knight is an alumnus. If it were not for Oregon’s good fortune in having such a famous, prestigious, and most importantly, RICH alumnus, that program would not be anywhere near the national spotlight. Knight donates tens of millions of dollars a year to the university, much of that to aid the athletic department. Just look at their jerseys! I read Knight paid entirely for a new athlete tutoring center (estimated cost: $41.7 million). Most recently, he paid for a $68 million football performance center. Their new basketball stadium is called Michael Knight Arena, named after his son. Similar things go on at many major universities, which they use as a recruiting tool to attract the best athletes.

I don’t believe letting players capitalize on their success outside of the playing field will influence the recruiting situation any more than what boosters already do. No matter what way you slice it, there just is not parity in the recruiting scene. At least if the NCAA loosens the reigns a bit, players like Jason White, Eric Crouch, and Danny Wuerffel might be able to make a few bucks on the fame generated during their most successful athletic years.

 

Jim Delany's Four Point Plan

Jim Delany (Big Ten Conference commissioner) recently spoke in front of the media and offered up several reforms he'd like to see instituted in the NCAA in the new future. I'll highlight them below and offer my take on each proposition.

1) Commitment to Education
While the subject of this point sounds fantastic and seems to be what college athletics is (or should be) founded upon, Delany's actual message here is quite different. He believes institutions should, without hesitation, reinstate athletes who drop out or turn professional prior to graduating, at no charge to the athlete. While I don't have a problem with this point in general, I do believe it undermines the original intent of college athleticism: Go to school, get a degree, and represent your school on the field/court/etc. By allowing athletes to return to school after dropping out or turning pro early without consequence, aren't we just exacerbating the problem? It seems like this idea would help encourage student-athletes to not finish their degree knowing they have a safety net to catch them. Especially in an era when the NCAA has graduation metrics that will result in post-season bans if a school hits a certain threshold of non-graduating student-athletes. Don't get me wrong, I'm all in favor Delany pitch here in a vacuum, but with the current rules set by the NCAA, I believe this could have adverse effects on universities.

2) Student-Athlete Schedule
Jim Delany emphasized reducing the student-athlete training time burden to allow the students to put more focus into their academic degrees. Currently, athletes are allowed to spend 20 hours per week training with their teams. Jim points out that more than 20 hours are accounted for when you factor in student-run "voluntary" workouts, and calls for coaches and athletic directors to change the philosophy and help regulate students' time.

3) First Year Option
Not too long ago, freshman were not eligible to play college contests... they had to wait until their second years to begin competing even though they were recruited right out of high school. Delany didn't exactly call for reinstating this rule, but he would like to see an option in which "at-risk" student-athletes could sit out their freshman year and get acclimated to college, focus on their studies, and be better prepared to handle academic work on top of their sport for the rest of their collegiate career, all without losing a year of eligibility. That sounds fine to me. It doesn't seem unreasonable for a kid to choose to wait a year to get his studies in order prior to beginning his athletic eligibility. But don't we already have that? Red-shirt?

4) Pay the Kids
Delany proposed to give the athletes a stipend "up to the cost of education." So, this would essentially be a paycheck to the students potentially as large as a year's worth of tuition. I'm not going to go off on this topic too much here (because I have a future blog post planned on this topic alone), but I will briefly summarize my point of view. I'm against paying the student-athletes. The universities are already providing them with a free education and a free platform to showcase their skills to the professional world. And to Jim's specific plan mentioned above, tuition costs vary from school to school, thus creating an unfair advantage to schools with higher tuition costs.

For more reading on Jim Delany's statements, check out the ESPN Big Ten Blog Post.

Introducing Michael's MLB Rankings

Check out the MLB rankings here, or click the "MLB Rankings" tab at the top of this blog.

Behind the Rankings

I don't want to get too in depth here into the details of the mathematics behind the ratings. So, I'll keep it relatively simple in this blog, and refer you to a reference where you can dig into it more if you'd like. I use a slightly modified version of Microsoft's TrueSkill ratings system. Why slightly modified? Two reasons: 1) Microsoft wouldn't elaborate on the complex details of competitions involving three or more competitors. 2) Microsoft would give the specific equations of the 'v' and 'w' functions (check the details in the reference if you care), so I had to curve fit.

 

Issue #2 isn't that big of a detail, my curve fit matches extremely close to their 'v' and 'w' function plots. Issue #1 doesn't effect head-to-head competitions, which cover the vast majority of sporting events, so this does not apply to my MLB rankings. For the curious readers out there, I devised a fairly accurate way of simulating their complex methods of three or more competitor events that tracks very closely with their results. With all that said, I'm satisfied with my Matlab version of the TrueSkill Rating system.

 

I think we can all agree that a team isn't always as good or as bad as their record. Strength of schedule matters. A team can have some very quality wins against a strong opponent, or an embarrassing loss against a poor opponent. From a 30,000 ft view, my MLB ratings (again, based on Microsoft's TrueSkill) measures each team based on the quality of opponent they compete against by tracking two parameters for each team: average skill (mu) and a measure of uncertainty of that skill (sigma). Many rating systems only track the "skill" term. By tracking both skill and uncertainty, you can converge to a more accurate representation of a player's (or team's) skill, with a smaller sample size. A team's opponent's skill, uncertainty, and outcome of the event effect that team's recalculated skill and uncertainty. The rating is generated from subtracting three times the uncertainty from the average skill (rating = mu - 3*sigma). This results in a 99% confidence that the team's skill is at or above that rating.

 

More details here if you are interested! Microsoft TrueSkill Rating

I'd also be happy to answer questions if you'd rather have someone translate that for you: Post your questions via email or comments on this post and I'll get back to you.

 

Current Rankings

(Note: This reflection of the current rankings is based on the posted rankings as of 29 July)

Check out the MLB rankings here, or click the "MLB Rankings" tab at the top of this blog.

 

Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, LA Dodgers, Boston, and Oakland are in the top 5 of my rankings as of 29 July 2013. The Dodgers have made a steady climb in the rankings in the last month. They have turned their season around remarkably. In the past 30 games, they have gone through a 7 game swing from the Arizona Diamondbacks to take the lead in the NL West. I have a pretty nifty post processing script that allows me to compare ratings and W-L record from any point that I have saved in the season. For the 29 July rankings, the deltas are calculated from the All-Star break, as noted at the top of the rankings. The Rays and Dodgers both have gone 9-2 since the break, while charging up my rankings. Pittsburgh dropped from the #1 spot to second while maintaining 6-6 record since the ASG.

 

A couple things to note to help you get acquainted with my rating system. Let's look at the Yankees and Diamondbacks:

 

13	NY Yankees	( 55- 50)	90.33	(  4-  7)	-0.85
14	Arizona	( 54- 51)	89.84	(  4-  7)	-2.07

Both teams went 4-7 since 13 July, but New York only dropped -0.85 points in the ratings while Arizona dropped -2.07. Why is this? Again, this reflects the quality of opponents the Yankees and Diamondbacks beat and lost to during that span. The majority of the Yankees losses since the break came to Tampa Bay (currently #1) and Boston (currently #4), while the majority of Arizona's losses came at the hands of the Giants (#27), Cubs (#16), and Padres (#19). Also note, the few wins that the Yankees and Diamondbacks racked up during those games came from the same teams mentioned above. See the difference? The Yankees are being rewarded more and punished less for their wins and losses against their stronger competition.

 

As another side note, it can be tough at the top. With the highest rating, a team is expected to win most of its games. This is why Pittsburgh slid a bit while going .500. Winning half your games will not keep you at the top for very long.

 

2

Pittsburgh

( 62- 42)

97.96

(  6-  6)

-1.49

 

If you notice any errors in the W-L record as of a specific date, please let me know. I found two errors already on ESPN (which I just copy and paste into my rating system) that I tracked down.

My "Football Love” Journey

Note - this is a guest post from my wife, Amanda

There was something in the air today...a fresh breeze that instantly made me think of football season.  This is strange, I know, considering it is still July and in southern Ohio that usually means 90 degree weather and no fresh breeze to be felt.  I was yearning for a college football game to be on the TV when I got home and it made me ponder how far I have come in my ‘football love’ journey.

I’ve always been an Ohio State football fan - not just in a girly, like to wear cute red shorts kind of way. I know the good players’ names and was in attendance at the Superdome when we suffered the heartbreaking loss to LSU in the National championship game of the 2007 season.  But that was pretty much it - I would really only watch Ohio State football games.  If my Dad or boyfriend (now husband!) had another game on, I would keep my eye on it, but

Michael and I at the "Game of the Century"
#1 OSU vs. #2 MU, 2006

not care too much about the outcome.  Sundays were always a different story.  I remember complaining that pro football was full of overpaid sissies who didn’t really try (I still say the same thing about the NBA, by the way). Even though most members of my family are Bengals fans, I could not stand to watch the game.  The NCAA was full of hopeful and dedicated scholar athletes, while the NFL was full of pansies.

Flash forward to two years ago when fantasy football entered my life.  I am extremely competitive by nature and to be married to someone even more competitive than myself set the stage for some pretty interesting Sundays. I went from not watching a single game on Sunday to knowing exactly which games were on CBS (1 pm AND 4 pm, thankyouverymuch), FOX, NBC Sunday Night Football, or EPSN’s Monday Night Football.  I now am pushing my husband for us to get NFL Sunday Ticket - ME!  Who would have thought it?  I now enjoy the intricacies of the game, but am by no means an expert on individual players or stats. I just truly enjoy watching the game.

This gave me an even greater appreciation for college football on Saturdays. I went from not knowing the conferences to being able to rattle off each conference and their teams (for the most part....).  I love the inter- and intra-conference rivalries, especially The Big Ten versus the SEC.  Perhaps the biggest  indicator of my growth is my support for the Buckeyes’ new coach, Urban Meyer. I distinctly remember sitting in my dorm room at Ohio State cursing Urban Meyer through the roof as his Gators beat us in the 2006 National Championship game.  Now I see him as an Ohio-born and raised guy truly dedicated to the betterment of the program.

As you can tell, I am not your average statistic-rattling football fan.  I am admittedly more emotional about my reasons for watching the game, and am glad that I have evolved over the years to enjoy each Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Thursday (now that we have the NFL Network).  Hopefully I’ll be back posting about my favorite sport soon!

Tweaking MLB's All-Star Game

The Mid-Summer Classic has come and gone, but with it has come a lot of debate about the baseball All-Star Game (ASG), such as who should be in it and what it should mean for the winning side. I'll tackle both of these questions by proposing what many would consider a radical idea!

MLB All-Star Game

The ASG as we know it today is comprised of 35-40 man rosters. Each team must be represented by at least one player. Also contributing to the inflation of the rosters are ineligible pitchers (due to pitching 3 days prior to the All-Star Game), which must be replaced. And, since that infamous tie in 2002, the winning league of the ASG is rewarded with home field advantage in the World Series.

The biggest problem with the All-Star Game as it is currently constituted is the fact that it is caught between being a fun, whimsical exhibition, and a game with a lot on the line. The fun exhibition aspect is the huge rosters that must include at least one player from every team. The starters come to the plate one or two times before the parade of players begins. On the other hand, home field advantage for the World Series hangs in the balance while the first-team All-Stars are riding the pine during the last half of the game. If Baseball would settle on what it wanted in an all-star game, perhaps it wouldn't seem like such a dichotomy and draw so much attention for a need to change. But for now, it is what it is, and I'll gladly contribute my two cents toward MLB All-Star Game reformation:

I love the fact that the World Series home field advantage is riding on the ASG. Therefore, my suggested changes are centric to this idea. (By the way, as a side note, the reason why I like the ASG determining home field advantage is because no other fair alternative exists. MLB play unbalanced schedules within their own divisions, let alone leagues. Each league's wildcard is somewhat affected by this. Bottom line, there just aren't enough crossover games from league to league to fairly compare season records). I solve Baseball's all-star dilemma in two easy steps:

• Step One: Trim the roster down to 25. Continue to let the fans choose the starters and the previous year's WS managers fill the remaining rosters out. The MLB can continue to allow the last (25th) man voted in by the fans if they wish.  End the parade of players in the ASG and allow the managers to manage for a win, not to make everyone happy. Also, if a team can make it in the playoffs with a 25 man roster, then an All-Star team can compete in a short series with 25 men as well. Wait... a short series?
• Step Two: Turn the All-Star Game into a best-of-three All-Star Series. I understand that this seems like a radical change. The baseball season is already too long by the opinions of many, so why extend it any further? Most of the MLB players will be watching the All-Star festivities from their couches, so this actually gives them a bit of a welcomed break halfway through the marathon season. Those fortunate enough to be selected should welcome the opportunity to play in an All-Star Series to determine which league will have home field advantage in the World Series. Also, this solves the problem of pitchers pitching too close to the All-Star Game to be eligible to participate. Based on my All-Star Series schedule (see below), anyone pitching in the last game prior to the break would be able to pitch in Game 3, and therefore would not need to be replaced. And who couldn't resist MLB's All-Stars for at least a two, possibly three, game series!

All-Star Series Schedule

Sat - Last first half game played

Sun - Off, travel

Mon - HR derby

Tues - G1

Wed - G2

Thur - G3 (if necessary)

Fri - Off, travel

Sat - First game of 2nd half played

(Posted from Great Anerican Ball Park)