NFL Rankings after Week 16

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 16: (29 DEC 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 15: (22 DEC 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!

NFL Rankings after Week 15

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 15: (22 DEC 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 14: (15 DEC 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!

NFL Rankings after Week 14

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 14: (15 DEC 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 13: (8 DEC 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!

NCAAF Rankings after Week 15

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 15, 13 DEC 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 14, 6 DEC 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

.

Highlights in the Top 10:

• My UPDATED Final Four playoff teams are set: #1 Alabama, #2 Clemson, #3 Michigan St., #4 Oklahoma.
• Wait a second!? Last week Iowa was #4, and Oklahoma was #5: 
• "Oklahoma left out at #5, trailing #4 Iowa by 0.24 points. Comparing their quality of competition, Iowa was ranked #42 and Oklahoma #40. Iowa loss came to #3 Michigan St, while Oklahoma lost to #50 Texas. Also, Iowa has one more win than Oklahoma on their resume. These factors are why Iowa edged out Oklahoma in my rankings."
• Good news for Oklahoma fans. There were some (very few) games played this week, mostly from Div I-AA and Div II and III. So, there was some additional learning that my rating systems takes into account, due to it's iterative nature.
• One of Iowa's Div I-AA opponents (Illinois St, now ranked #3 in Div I-AA) lost again, so Iowa's ratings dropped significantly relative to other teams (most likely because other teams were at least one team removed from teams that had a negative result this week).
• The resulting rating dropped Iowa to #5, below the now #4 Oklahoma Sooners
• The rest of the Top 25 remained the same: the small delta's were not significant enough to change the order of the other teams.
• My final four now matches the selection committee's final four
• Four Big Ten teams in the Top 10. Add michigan (#16) and that accounts for 5 of the Top 20 teams.
• For comparison, the SEC has 2 teams in the Top 10, and 6 teams in the Top 25 (the SEC also has Tennessee at #26, Texas A&M at #27, and Georgia at #28)
• The Big 12 has 1 Top 10 team, and 4 Top 25 teams. 
• The Pac 12 has 1 Top 10 team, and 3 Top 25 teams. 

My Take:

• Let's look back on a few of my committee projections from last week:
• "After a boring Championship Saturday, the committee's job should be very simple: Clemson, Alabama, Michigan St, and Oklahoma will be in the college football playoff."
• Correct, but this was an easy prediction
• "I believe the teams should be in that order, also. Michigan St should leap Oklahoma for the #3 spot. Both teams have one loss to a very inferior opponent. MSU's loss came on a poor call at the end of the game, and played in and won a conference title game."
• Correct!
• "Stanford should climb to #5. I believe they will pass Ohio State despite having one more loss because they played in a conference championship game and won. Even though it doesn't make a difference to the Final Four teams, we will still get some learning here as to how much the committee values conference championships."
• Partial credit here, I was right when I said Stanford would jump Ohio State. However, I was wrong to think Iowa would fall below either Stanford or OSU. At least I questioned whether Iowa would fall below OSU "It will be interesting to see if Iowa drops below Ohio State. Both teams have one loss, and to the same team very late in the game."
• In summary, my prediction for the Committee's Top 10 (vs the actual top 10):
1. Clemson (Clemson)
2. Alabama (Alabama)
3. Michigan St (Michigan St)
4. Oklahoma (Oklahoma)
5. Stanford (Iowa)
6. Ohio State (Stanford)
7. Iowa (Ohio State)
8. Notre Dame (Notre Dame)
9. Florida St. (Florida St.)
10. TCU (North Carolina)

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Comments? Please share below!

NFL Rankings after Week 13

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 13: (8 DEC 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 12: (1 DEC 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!

NCAAF Playoff Rankings (after Week 14)

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 14, 6 DEC 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 13, 29 NOV 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

.

Highlights in the Top 10:

• My Final Four playoff teams are set: #1 Alabama, #2 Clemson, #3 Michigan St., #4 Iowa.
• Oklahoma left out at #5, trailing #4 Iowa by 0.24 points. Comparing their quality of competition, Iowa was ranked #42 and Oklahoma #40. Iowa loss came to #3 Michigan St, while Oklahoma lost to #50 Texas. Also, Iowa has one more win than Oklahoma on their resume. These factors are why Iowa edged out Oklahoma in my rankings.
• Four Big Ten teams in the Top 10. Add michigan (#16) and that accounts for 5 of the Top 20 teams.
• For comparison, the SEC has 2 teams in the Top 10, and 6 teams in the Top 25 (the SEC also has Tennessee at #26, Texas A&M at #27, and Georgia at #28)
• The Big 12 has 1 Top 10 team, and 4 Top 25 teams. 
• The Pac 12 has 1 Top 10 team, and 3 Top 25 teams. 

My Take:

• After a boring Championship Saturday, the committee's job should be very simple: Clemson, Alabama, Michigan St, and Oklahoma will be in the college football playoff.
• I believe the teams should be in that order, also. Michigan St should leap Oklahoma for the #3 spot. Both teams have one loss to a very inferior opponent. MSU's loss came on a poor call at the end of the game, and played in and won a conference title game.
• Stanford should climb to #5. I believe they will pass Ohio State despite having one more loss because they played in a conference championship game and won. Even though it doesn't make a difference to the Final Four teams, we will still get some learning here as to how much the committee values conference championships.
• It will be interesting to see if Iowa drops below Ohio State. Both teams have one loss, and to the same team very late in the game. 
• In summary, my prediction for the Committee's Top 10:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Michigan St
4. Oklahoma
5. Stanford
6. Ohio State
7. Iowa
8. Notre Dame
9. Florida St.
10. TCU

(Update: See NCAAF Rankings after Week 15 to see how well my predictions turned out)

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Comments? Please share below!

NFL Rankings (after week 12)

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 12: (1 DEC 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 11: (24 NOV 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!