NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings
Updated: Week 13, 26 NOV 2017
(Delta Calc'd from Week 12, 19 NOV 2017)
Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.
(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)
(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)
UCF in my Top 4. Am I arguing for UCF to be in the College Football Playoff?
No. In a completely objective, unbiased, statistical system, you are bound to have outliers. Especially when a mid-major team is undefeated, the statistical system doesn't really have an upper bound and therefore a lot of uncertainty still exists. They will not be in the CFP, nor should they be. However, you can argue that their season has been under appreciated.
Georgia, Clemson, and Oklahoma win their conference championships.
#1 Georgia, #2 Clemson, and #4 Oklahoma, according to my rankings, will take 3 of the 4 CFP spots. No doubt about that.
Who gets the fourth and final playoff spot?
It will come down to three teams (rankings reflect my ratings): #5 Ohio State, #8 Alabama, #9 USC.
USC won the Pac 12 Conference Championship against #13 Stanford, but will not get serious consideration for the last playoff spot. Outside of defeating Stanford twice, their best win is #31 Arizona State.
Ohio State should get the nod over Alabama, using the committee's own guidelines and previous comments. The committee chair had previously stated that Ohio State and Alabama were close, and that was before Ohio State defeated #6 Wisconsin. And when two teams are close, the committee guidelines state the following criteria (in no particular order) to separate teams:
Prediction for the CFP Rankings
No. In a completely objective, unbiased, statistical system, you are bound to have outliers. Especially when a mid-major team is undefeated, the statistical system doesn't really have an upper bound and therefore a lot of uncertainty still exists. They will not be in the CFP, nor should they be. However, you can argue that their season has been under appreciated.
Georgia, Clemson, and Oklahoma win their conference championships.
#1 Georgia, #2 Clemson, and #4 Oklahoma, according to my rankings, will take 3 of the 4 CFP spots. No doubt about that.
Who gets the fourth and final playoff spot?
It will come down to three teams (rankings reflect my ratings): #5 Ohio State, #8 Alabama, #9 USC.
USC won the Pac 12 Conference Championship against #13 Stanford, but will not get serious consideration for the last playoff spot. Outside of defeating Stanford twice, their best win is #31 Arizona State.
Ohio State should get the nod over Alabama, using the committee's own guidelines and previous comments. The committee chair had previously stated that Ohio State and Alabama were close, and that was before Ohio State defeated #6 Wisconsin. And when two teams are close, the committee guidelines state the following criteria (in no particular order) to separate teams:
- Head-to-Head (does not apply to OSU - Alabama)
- Results among common competition (does not apply to OSU - Alabama)
- Conference Championship (favors Ohio State)
- Strength of Schedule (favors Ohio State)
I go into a little more detail in my latest post here (and detail why Alabama should NOT be compared to last year's Buckeyes that got in despite not being a conference champion), but in summary, the Buckeyes should make the playoffs. Any other result would be the committee going against their guidelines and past precedent.
Prediction for the CFP Rankings
- Clemson
- Oklahoma
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Alabama
- USC
- Auburn
- Penn State
- Miami
- Wisconsin
Ratings Notes:
- Ohio State moves up to #5 after winning the Big Ten Championship, and should be in the CFP (see above)
- #1 Georgia defeats #7 Auburn in the SEC Championship to claim the top spot. Will be in the CFP.
- #2 Clemson soundly defeats #12 Miami in the ACC Championship. Will be in the CFP.
- #4 Oklahoma defeats #18 TCU in the Big 12 Championship. Will be in the CFP.
- Top 10 // Top 25 Teams for each conference:
- ACC: 1 // 4
- Big Ten: 2 // 7
- Big 12: 1 // 3
- Pac 12: 1 // 4
- SEC: 3 // 4
Poll Comparison
Conference Comparison
As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!
