NCAAF 2019 Rankings after Conference Championships

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 15, 8 DEC 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 14, 1 DEC 2019)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Ohio State remains #1 after defeating #9 Wisconsin for the Big Ten title. Ohio State now has the 5th best SoS and #1 SoR. Ohio State has three current top 10 wins (#7 Penn St, #9 Wisconsin x2) and one just outside (#11 michigan).
• #2 LSU gains a little ground on #1 Ohio State after defeating #5 Georgia, but still trails the Buckeyes by over 2.5 points. LSU has the #40 SoS and #2 SoR. LSU has two current top 10 wins (#5 Georgia, #10 Florida) and one just outside (#13 Auburn).
• Clemson moves up to #3 after defeating #28 Virginia.
• Oklahoma rounds out the top 4 after beating Baylor in the Big 12 championship.
• Oregon is up to #12 after defeating #16 Utah in the title game.
• The College Football Playoff (CFP) committee has a fairly easy job of deciding who is in this year: Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma are locks. The only question is: who gets the #1 seed? My objective rankings make it clear that Ohio State has the best resume looking at the entire season (and keep in mind, my rankings do not factor in margin of victory which would tilt things in favor of Ohio State even more). Anyone making the case for LSU being #1 is clearly only looking 1 week into the past (a win of #5 Georgia compared to a win over #9 Wisconsin), rather than the entire season as a whole (see my first two bullets). Or, they are suffering from SEC bias(itis). When you look objectively at the situation, the choice is clear. Let's see if the committee can do just that (although, given their history... I'm not holding my breath).
• Check out the Conference rankings below. It's pretty close for the top 3 (Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC (SEC isn't #1? Amazing what happens when you take subjectivity of out it). However, the ACC is dreadful this year.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 1 
• Big 12: 1 // 2
• Big Ten: 3 // 6
• Pac 12: 0 // 3
• SEC: 3 // 5

Poll Comparison (OOPS... I posted this too early and the human polls are out yet)

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2019 Rankings after Week 14

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 14, 1 DEC 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 13, 25 NOV 2019)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Ohio State increases its lead at #1 after defeating #11 michigan (who dropped from #7 after the loss). Ohio State now has the 12th best SoS, and that will only get better after facing off against #9 Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship.
• Ohio State and LSU have such a lead at #1 and #2 that even with a loss, both of those teams would probably stay in the top 2.
• #4 Clemson loses ground on #3 Georgia despite defeating #61 South Carolina. 
• In fact, #5 Oklahoma almost closed gap and broke into the top 4 after defeating #27 Oklahoma State. I project that OU will jump Clemson if they defeat #12 Baylor in the Big 12 Championship game (Clemson plays #28 Virginia). Clemson is falling victim to playing in an extremely weak conference. They might be one of the top 4 teams in the country, they just haven't had a good opponent to prove that fact against.
• Whoops, Alabama falls to #16 (from #11) after losing to #14 Auburn (who jumped 7 spots from #21).
• Minnesota falls to #21 after losing to #9 Wisconsin. After starting the season undefeated, they dropped 2 out of 3 to Top 25 opponents (beat #6 PSU, lost to #20 Iowa and #9 Wisconsin).
• Conference Championship Match-ups next week:
• ACC: #4 Clemson vs #28 Virginia
• Big 12: #5 Oklahoma vs #12 Baylor
• Big Ten: #1 Ohio State vs #9 Wisconsin
• Pac 12: #13 Utah vs #18 Oregon
• SEC: #2 LSU vs #3 Georgia
• AAC: #8 Memphis vs #15 Cincinnati
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 1 
• Big 12: 1 // 2
• Big Ten: 3 // 6
• Pac 12: 0 // 3
• SEC: 3 // 5

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2019 Rankings after Week 13

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 13, 25 NOV 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 12, 18 NOV 2019)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Ohio State takes over the number one spot from LSU after defeating #5 Penn St. Ohio State has the #29 SoS and #1 SoR, compared to LSU's #57 SoS and #2 SoR. Additionally, Ohio State has defeated 2 teams (#5 PSU, #9 Cincinnati) ranked higher than LSU's top opponent (#11 Alabama). Ohio State also has defeated #12 Wisconsin.
• Penn State only dropped 1 spot to #5. The Nitty Lions are the top ranked 2-loss team and are ranked above several 1-loss teams, including #8 Oklahoma, #9 Cincinnati, #10 Baylor, and #11 Alabama. Penn State has the 6th best SoS. And, despite having two losses, they have the 4th best SoR! (#6 ND is right behind PSU, with a #7 SoS and #6 SoR)
• Georgia passed Clemson for the #3 spot after defeating #39 Texas A&M.
• Alabama holds at #11 after defeating a bottom dweller Div I-AA team... (golf clap).
• Notre Dame jumps to #6 after defeating #24 Navy. ND just beat out michigan for the 6th spot and has the 9th best SoS and ranks #10 in SoR.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 1 
• Big 12: 2 // 2
• Big Ten: 3 // 6
• Pac 12: 1 // 3
• SEC: 2 // 5

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2019 Rankings after Week 12

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 12, 18 NOV 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 11, 11 NOV 2019)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• #1 LSU and #2 Ohio State remain at the top.
• Clemson climbs to #3 after defeating #31 Wake Forest. Their strength of schedule improves to #70.
• Georgia cracks my top 5 for the first time this season after beating #21 Auburn. Georgia's SoS is now #38 and have the #4 SoR, behind LSU, Ohio State, and Penn State.
• Minnesota drops 6 spots to #9 after losing to #19 Iowa.
• Notre Dame jumps to #6 after defeating #24 Navy. ND just beat out michigan for the 6th spot and has the 9th best SoS and ranks #10 in SoR.
• The Big 12 have 3 teams drop out of the top 25 (#26 Ok. St, #28 Texas, #38 Kansas St.).
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 1 
• Big 12: 1 // 2
• Big Ten: 4 // 6
• Pac 12: 1 // 3
• SEC: 3 // 5

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2019 Rankings after Week 11

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 11, 11 NOV 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 10, 4 NOV 2019)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• #1 LSU increases its lead at the top spot with a big win over #11 Alabama. Alabama fell 5 spots from #6. This is not so much due to Alabama losing value in their rating (they only lost 0.73 points for losing to the #1 team), but more due to the other teams around them increasing their rankings, albeit only slightly. I mentioned last week that the teams rated #6-#11 were only separated by 2.65 points... which means even small changes in rankings can cause large movements in rankings.
• The human polls have Alabama at #4 (We'll see on Tuesday where the CFP committee has them). This is pretty ridiculous and highlights the human bias problem. Is Alabama a top 5 team? Maybe... but they haven't proven it. Including LSU, their Strength of Schedule is ranked #62 (last week it was #100). Their top three wins are #42 Texas A&M, #48 Tennessee, and #62 South Carolina (who just lost to Appalachian State!). The problem here is that if we just keep assuming Alabama is one of the best despite their on the field performance... it takes away a spot from a team who has proven their capability and earned a top 5 spot. 
• By the way, I do not believe, even if Alabama wins out, that they should be in the playoffs. They do not have a win over a Top 40 team. Their only opportunity for a Top 25 win is Auburn (they also have #51 Miss St and Western Carolina on their schedule). Fun fact about Western Carolina... they are ranked #101... in Div I-AA!!!! Looks like the SEC needs to work on their scheduling if they are going to lose to 1 of their 2 ranked teams they play if they still want to get into the playoffs.
• Ohio State remains comfortably ranked at #2.
• Minnesota jumps to #3 (up 11 spots) after defeating Penn State. Meanwhile, Penn State only falls one spot despite losing 5.71 points... largely due to the sizable lead they had in the ratings in previous weeks over the other top 10 teams. It will be interesting to see where the committee ranks Minnesota. They were very low (#17) due to the fact that we really didn't have a benchmark for their undefeated season given their vastly inferior competition. However, now we do have a benchmark, and I believe they *should* vault up well into the top 10.
• Clemson drops two spots and loses 0.75 points after beating #93 NC State. Similar to last week, the negative rating adjustment they received from learning more about their opponents outweighed the small positive rating increase they received from beating a bad team.
• Cincinnati drops to #12, despite winning. (See the note about Clemson above).
• Below, I have included my calculated Strength of Record compared to ESPN's. Strength of Record (SoR) is a measure of how an average Top 25 team would perform against a given team's schedule, relative to that team's record (better than or equal to).
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 1 
• Big 12: 1 // 5
• Big Ten: 3 // 5
• Pac 12: 1 // 2
• SEC: 3 // 5

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2019 Ranking after Week 10

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 10, 4 NOV 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 9, 28 OCT 2019)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• The top 4 teams remain the same after all having "byes" this week. Okay, okay... Clemson actually played a "team" from Div I-AA. The funny thing about that is the positive points that Clemson received from beating up on the Little Sisters of the Poor was out-shadowed by negative points it received from the additional learning about its previous competition. The other top 4 teams increased their rating from net positive learning about their previous competition. Good job Clemson.
• Alabama moves two places to #6 while on a bye week, after Florida and SMU (previously ranked ahead of Alabama) lose this week.
• Memphis moves up 11 spots to #8 after defeating #16 SMU. SMU was previously rankedd 7th before their loss
• Georgia moves up 14 (!) places to #11 after defeating #9 Florida (who was ranked #5 at the time). How can Georgia (7-1), with victories over #9 Florida and #18 Notre Dame, be ranked outside the top 10? Well, if you look at the ratings of the teams ranked 6-11, you'll see that they are only separated by 2.65 points. Most of the teams in that range ranked above Georgia one more win than the Bulldogs, due to not having their second bye week yet (or just being undefeated). The two other teams ranked above Georgia in that range with the same number of wins have better strength of schedules than Georgia. Keep in mind that I do not using strength of schedule to calculate my rankings (in fact, it's the opposite... I calculate SoS FROM my ratings); however, this implies that the points those teams are rewarded with for defeating their opponents or at least a little more than Georgia's. And the difference is slight. Florida and Cincinnati are beating Georgia in my ratings by 0.21 and 0.16 points, respectively.
• Baylor is currently ranked #5, but has some tough games against Oklahoma and Texas looming.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 2 
• Big 12: 1 // 4
• Big Ten: 2 // 5
• Pac 12: 1 // 2
• SEC: 3 // 5

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2019 Rankings after Week 9

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 9, 28 OCT 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 8, 21 OCT 2019)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• #1 through #6 remain the same after Week 9. Ohio State had the highest positive delta among the top 10 teams and closes the gap to LSU with a win over Wisconsin
• SMU is 8-0 and climbs to #7
• Alabama is ranked #8 by my rankings, and #2 and #1 by the human polls (AP, Coaches). What accounts for the difference? Bias and projection. The voters in the human polls have been conditioned to believe in Alabama. They believe that they are one of the top teams despite not having the opportunity to prove it on the field. If you look at their accomplishments in an unbiased manner... it amounts to them being ranked, well, at #8. Their strength of schedule thus far ranks 100. Out of 130. (SMU from the AAC has had a stronger schedule so far.) Tougher teams are coming for Alabama (#1 LSU, #11 Auburn) and perhaps they'll prove they are one of the top teams. But as of today, they've only earned the 8th spot.
• Cincinnati breaks into my top 10 for the first time in history.
• Oklahoma falls to #18 after losing to #21 Kansas St.
• michigan jumps to #12 with a quality win over #23 Notre Dame
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 2 
• Big 12: 1 // 3
• Big Ten: 2 // 5
• Pac 12: 1 // 2
• SEC: 3 // 5

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2019 Rankings after Week 8

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 8, 21 OCT 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 7, 14 OCT 2019)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• LSU passes OSU atop the rankings. Not a surprise here. The win over Northwestern wasn't worth much in comparison to LSU's win over Miss. St.
• Wisconsin drops 17 spots to #20 after a loss to #80 Illinois. Is Wisconsin better than #20? Most likely. But after 7 games played (and one of them being a loss to a terrible team), this is where they are right now.
• Penn State jumps 6 spots to #3 after defeating #24 michigan. 
• Clemson climbs to #4 after beating #32 Louisville.
• Alabama is passed by a few schools and falls to #9. Notice Alabama actually lost points (-0.52) for a win against #92 Tennessee. Why? Keep in mind, my iterate after each week, factor in new learning from team's that everyone has already play, and converge on a new rating. The negative learning from Alabama's previous opponent overwhelmed the small bump they got from beating lowly Tennessee and resulted in a net decreasing in rating.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 3 
• Big Ten: 2 // 5
• Big 12: 2 // 3
• Pac 12: 0 // 2
• SEC: 4 // 5

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF Rankings after Week 7

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 7, 14 OCT 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 6, 7 OCT 2019)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Ohio State edges out LSU for the #1 spot after week 7. Even though LSU has the best win between the two teams, OSU's overall body of work to date results in a higher calculated rating.
• Wisconsin comes in at #3 after defeating #24 Michigan St.
• #4 Boise St is currently ranked higher in my ratings than the human polls (AP: 13, Coaches: 14). 
• Georgia falls 10 spots to #22 after losing to then-ranked #77 South Carolina (currently ranked #44). Note: The human polls had Georgia at #3 prior to this week. My ratings were less impressed (and unbiased) and ranked them at #12 before losing at home to South Carolina.
• Clemson and Alabama are ranked #6 and #7, respectively. It's amazing what happens when you rank teams without any kind of recency bias (or SEC bias)!
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 0 
• Big Ten: 3 // 6
• Big 12: 0 // 3
• Pac 12: 1 // 3
• SEC: 4 // 6

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF Rankings - FINAL

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: FINAL, 8 JAN 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 14, 2 DEC 2018)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Clemson wins the National Championship, and also moves to #1 in my rankings by a fair margin
• Alabama drops to #2, netting -0.49 points after defeating #5 Oklahoma in the semis, then losing to #1 Clemson in the championship.
• ND drops to #3 after being defeated in the semi finals by the eventual champions
• Ohio State jumps Oklahoma and moves to #4 after defeating #17 Washington
• Georgia falls to #6 after losing to #13 Texas
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 2 
• Big Ten: 2 // 5
• Big 12: 1 // 3
• Pac 12: 0 // 3
• SEC: 5 // 8

Poll Comparison

Conference Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!