NCAAF 2019 Rankings after Week 13

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 13, 25 NOV 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 12, 18 NOV 2019)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• Ohio State takes over the number one spot from LSU after defeating #5 Penn St. Ohio State has the #29 SoS and #1 SoR, compared to LSU's #57 SoS and #2 SoR. Additionally, Ohio State has defeated 2 teams (#5 PSU, #9 Cincinnati) ranked higher than LSU's top opponent (#11 Alabama). Ohio State also has defeated #12 Wisconsin.
• Penn State only dropped 1 spot to #5. The Nitty Lions are the top ranked 2-loss team and are ranked above several 1-loss teams, including #8 Oklahoma, #9 Cincinnati, #10 Baylor, and #11 Alabama. Penn State has the 6th best SoS. And, despite having two losses, they have the 4th best SoR! (#6 ND is right behind PSU, with a #7 SoS and #6 SoR)
• Georgia passed Clemson for the #3 spot after defeating #39 Texas A&M.
• Alabama holds at #11 after defeating a bottom dweller Div I-AA team... (golf clap).
• Notre Dame jumps to #6 after defeating #24 Navy. ND just beat out michigan for the 6th spot and has the 9th best SoS and ranks #10 in SoR.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 1 
• Big 12: 2 // 2
• Big Ten: 3 // 6
• Pac 12: 1 // 3
• SEC: 2 // 5

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2019 Rankings after Week 12

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 12, 18 NOV 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 11, 11 NOV 2019)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• #1 LSU and #2 Ohio State remain at the top.
• Clemson climbs to #3 after defeating #31 Wake Forest. Their strength of schedule improves to #70.
• Georgia cracks my top 5 for the first time this season after beating #21 Auburn. Georgia's SoS is now #38 and have the #4 SoR, behind LSU, Ohio State, and Penn State.
• Minnesota drops 6 spots to #9 after losing to #19 Iowa.
• Notre Dame jumps to #6 after defeating #24 Navy. ND just beat out michigan for the 6th spot and has the 9th best SoS and ranks #10 in SoR.
• The Big 12 have 3 teams drop out of the top 25 (#26 Ok. St, #28 Texas, #38 Kansas St.).
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 1 
• Big 12: 1 // 2
• Big Ten: 4 // 6
• Pac 12: 1 // 3
• SEC: 3 // 5

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2019 Rankings after Week 11

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 11, 11 NOV 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 10, 4 NOV 2019)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• #1 LSU increases its lead at the top spot with a big win over #11 Alabama. Alabama fell 5 spots from #6. This is not so much due to Alabama losing value in their rating (they only lost 0.73 points for losing to the #1 team), but more due to the other teams around them increasing their rankings, albeit only slightly. I mentioned last week that the teams rated #6-#11 were only separated by 2.65 points... which means even small changes in rankings can cause large movements in rankings.
• The human polls have Alabama at #4 (We'll see on Tuesday where the CFP committee has them). This is pretty ridiculous and highlights the human bias problem. Is Alabama a top 5 team? Maybe... but they haven't proven it. Including LSU, their Strength of Schedule is ranked #62 (last week it was #100). Their top three wins are #42 Texas A&M, #48 Tennessee, and #62 South Carolina (who just lost to Appalachian State!). The problem here is that if we just keep assuming Alabama is one of the best despite their on the field performance... it takes away a spot from a team who has proven their capability and earned a top 5 spot. 
• By the way, I do not believe, even if Alabama wins out, that they should be in the playoffs. They do not have a win over a Top 40 team. Their only opportunity for a Top 25 win is Auburn (they also have #51 Miss St and Western Carolina on their schedule). Fun fact about Western Carolina... they are ranked #101... in Div I-AA!!!! Looks like the SEC needs to work on their scheduling if they are going to lose to 1 of their 2 ranked teams they play if they still want to get into the playoffs.
• Ohio State remains comfortably ranked at #2.
• Minnesota jumps to #3 (up 11 spots) after defeating Penn State. Meanwhile, Penn State only falls one spot despite losing 5.71 points... largely due to the sizable lead they had in the ratings in previous weeks over the other top 10 teams. It will be interesting to see where the committee ranks Minnesota. They were very low (#17) due to the fact that we really didn't have a benchmark for their undefeated season given their vastly inferior competition. However, now we do have a benchmark, and I believe they *should* vault up well into the top 10.
• Clemson drops two spots and loses 0.75 points after beating #93 NC State. Similar to last week, the negative rating adjustment they received from learning more about their opponents outweighed the small positive rating increase they received from beating a bad team.
• Cincinnati drops to #12, despite winning. (See the note about Clemson above).
• Below, I have included my calculated Strength of Record compared to ESPN's. Strength of Record (SoR) is a measure of how an average Top 25 team would perform against a given team's schedule, relative to that team's record (better than or equal to).
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 1 
• Big 12: 1 // 5
• Big Ten: 3 // 5
• Pac 12: 1 // 2
• SEC: 3 // 5

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2019 Ranking after Week 10

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 10, 4 NOV 2019

(Delta Calc'd from Week 9, 28 OCT 2019)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• The top 4 teams remain the same after all having "byes" this week. Okay, okay... Clemson actually played a "team" from Div I-AA. The funny thing about that is the positive points that Clemson received from beating up on the Little Sisters of the Poor was out-shadowed by negative points it received from the additional learning about its previous competition. The other top 4 teams increased their rating from net positive learning about their previous competition. Good job Clemson.
• Alabama moves two places to #6 while on a bye week, after Florida and SMU (previously ranked ahead of Alabama) lose this week.
• Memphis moves up 11 spots to #8 after defeating #16 SMU. SMU was previously rankedd 7th before their loss
• Georgia moves up 14 (!) places to #11 after defeating #9 Florida (who was ranked #5 at the time). How can Georgia (7-1), with victories over #9 Florida and #18 Notre Dame, be ranked outside the top 10? Well, if you look at the ratings of the teams ranked 6-11, you'll see that they are only separated by 2.65 points. Most of the teams in that range ranked above Georgia one more win than the Bulldogs, due to not having their second bye week yet (or just being undefeated). The two other teams ranked above Georgia in that range with the same number of wins have better strength of schedules than Georgia. Keep in mind that I do not using strength of schedule to calculate my rankings (in fact, it's the opposite... I calculate SoS FROM my ratings); however, this implies that the points those teams are rewarded with for defeating their opponents or at least a little more than Georgia's. And the difference is slight. Florida and Cincinnati are beating Georgia in my ratings by 0.21 and 0.16 points, respectively.
• Baylor is currently ranked #5, but has some tough games against Oklahoma and Texas looming.
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 1 // 2 
• Big 12: 1 // 4
• Big Ten: 2 // 5
• Pac 12: 1 // 2
• SEC: 3 // 5

Poll Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!