Ooten NCAAF Rankings Details and Explanation

This post is in progress. Please check back soon!

The coaches, media, and now an all-powerful committee of 13 publishes their Top 25 NCAA Football rankings. When you have a field of over 100 Division I-A (FBS) teams and a relatively tiny number of games to judge them by, you will have controversy. Well, I couldn't help myself... so I have applied my rating system to the college football system. This took a little while longer to launch (compared to my NFL and MLB ratings) because of the shear number of teams involved. It's not just the 100+ Div I-A teams, but they play the 100+ Div I-AA teams, and they play the vast Div II teams, and they play the vast amount of Div III. Thanks to really fast computations, I have rated well over 500 NCAAF teams, many of them I haven't heard of before. You can see the latest rankings here: NCAAF Rankings

Behind the Rankings

For the most part, my NCAAF rankings are very similar to my rating systems that I use for my NFL and MLB rankings. So if this text seems familiar, that's because it is! I don't want to get too in depth here into the details of the mathematics behind the ratings. So, I'll keep it relatively simple in this blog, and refer you to a reference where you can dig into it more if you'd like. I use a slightly modified version of Microsoft's TrueSkill ratings system. Why slightly modified? Two reasons: 1) Microsoft wouldn't elaborate on the complex details of competitions involving three or more competitors. 2) Microsoft would give the specific equations of the 'v' and 'w' functions (check the details in the reference if you care), so I had to curve fit.

Issue #2 isn't that big of a detail, my curve fit matches extremely close to their 'v' and 'w' function plots. Issue #1 doesn't effect head-to-head competitions, which cover the vast majority of sporting events, so this does not apply to my NCAAF rankings. For the curious readers out there, I devised a fairly accurate way of simulating their complex methods of three or more competitor events that tracks very closely with their results. With all that said, I'm satisfied with my Matlab version of the TrueSkill Rating system.

I think we can all agree that a team isn't always as good or as bad as their record. Strength of schedule matters. A team can have some very quality wins against a strong opponent, or an embarrassing loss against a poor opponent. From a 30,000 ft view, my NCAAF ratings (again, based on Microsoft's TrueSkill) measures each team based on the quality of opponent they compete against by tracking two parameters for each team: average skill (mu) and a measure of uncertainty of that skill (sigma). Many rating systems only track the "skill" term. By tracking both skill and uncertainty, you can converge to a more accurate representation of a player's (or team's) skill, with a smaller sample size. A team's opponent's skill, uncertainty, and outcome of the event effect that team's recalculated skill and uncertainty. The rating is generated from subtracting three times the uncertainty from the average skill (rating = mu - 3*sigma). This results in a 99% confidence that the team's skill is at or above that rating.

Everything I've mentioned to this point applies to my NFL and MLB ratings also. Where I start to diverge with my NCAAF ratings is the fact that I converge my NCAAF rankings. I do this for NCAAF and not the professional sports because in college sports there can be a huge variation of the quality of teams. Applying an iterative algorithm to the rating system allows learning of each team later in the season to be applied to early season results.

Each year, the teams are started off with the same base rating (or a regression to a base rating), so an early win or loss may not accurately yield the correct points added or subtracted from a team. For example, during the 2014 NCAAF season, Ohio State suffered and early loss to Virginia Tech. In the beginning of the season, these teams are similarly rated, so OSU was not penalized too much for losing to a near-equal team. However, as the season has progressed, Virginia Tech has lost several more games. This indicates that the loss to Virginia Tech was worse than losing to a near-equal team. The iteration process subtracts more points from Ohio State than was originally subtracted. The opposite can occur from an early season win over a team that proves to be high quality. The iterative process applies learning for each team's opponents to that team's rating, which can result in a small fluctuation of a team's rating even during a bye week. Currently, I iterate on the NCAAF ratings until the maximum team convergence is less than 1%.

More details here if you are interested! Microsoft TrueSkill Rating

I'd also be happy to answer questions if you'd rather have someone translate that for you: Post your questions via email or comments on this post and I'll get back to you.

Lawsuits Against the NFL

By Ryan Reeber

I have been paying close attention to all of the lawsuits that have been going on involving the NFL and it's former players. Like most people, I have formed my own opinions but haven't decided to voice them until now.

Since the concussion lawsuit has already happened I'm going to focus my article solely on the most recent lawsuit regarding team doctors hiding injuries and players taking medicines that have permanently damaged their bodies.  Please keep in mind that some of the players involved played in the 70's and 80's, so times were a little different then than they are now. Also, my opinions will not apply to ALL players listed in this lawsuit but I certainly think it applies to most.

The lawsuit is targeting many "team doctors" who either misled the players about their injuries, lied to them about injuries, or lied to them about possible side affects to prescription medicines (mainly painkillers).  When I first heard of this I instantly thought, oh great, here comes more deadbeat, broke former NFL players trying to make an easy pay day.  Here comes another blow to a sport that I enjoyed playing for 9 years and love watching in person or on television.  I paid close attention to media outlets and followed this story fairly closely to try to learn as much as I could about it. I do not have all the facts but I have enough to have an opinion.

The first thing about this lawsuit that really irritates me is who is being sued. The former players are blaming the TEAM doctors for how they were treated yet they are suing the NFL as a whole. Now I understand that the NFL is the big kahuna. But the NFL does not decide who these teams employ as their coaches or doctors.  If you want to sue who is truly responsible then sue your former team.  But why isn't that happening? I believe the answer is simple. These individual teams are worth pennies compared to what the NFL as an entity is worth. Meaning that a favorable decision in any lawsuit against the NFL will pay much more than against any individual team. So far, looks like a cash grab may be the true motive behind this lawsuit.

But that's not the whole story.

These players are claiming that team doctors misdiagnosed, misinformed and sometimes even misled the players about what injuries they sustained. For example, a player in the lawsuit claims he broke his leg and the doctors did not tell him that it was broken, so he played the whole season on a broken leg. Of course I could bring up common sense which should tell someone, "hey, I'm in a lot more pain than what a strain, sprain or bruise gives you....this has to be a break". But I'll give the player the benefit of the doubt on this one. Let's say, for the sake of the argument, that the doctor did lie to the player and the player had no idea. What then?  Does the player just blindly follow the doctors advice?  Now here is where your opinion might differ from mine. I think it's completely asinine for a player to blindly follow a doctor (who works for the TEAM) and not seek a second opinion. Did these players not have a personal doctor?  A doctor that worked for THEM and whom they could trust would have their best interests at heart?  I heard Cris Carter (former Buckeye great) say on Mike & Mike that he always got a second opinion from his personal doctor. So clearly, not all of these players lacked common sense. Why didn't these guys get second opinions? Was it pure laziness?  Was it blind faith in the wrong people?  Were they just "played" by someone they should be able to trust?  Personally, I think it's a combination of all those things and an enormous lack of accountability and responsibility.

These players played in the NFL. It's a violent sport in which your bodies get banged up every single day. You know when you strap on those pads that you may get hurt. Wouldn't it be in your best interest to make sure that your body (your most prized possession in your career) is taken care of?  Who is supposed to take care of it?  Are the doctors responsible for YOUR body or are you?  Let's go ahead and bring up the last part of this lawsuit, painkillers.

Some of these former players were prescribed painkillers to help treat the pain from their injuries. Seems pretty common right?  Most people now a days know that most, if not all, painkillers can be addicting. But again, this information may not have been well known in the 70's or 80's so I'll yet again give the players a pass on this one. However, I cannot give them a pass for putting pills into their body (again, their "moneymaker") without knowing exactly what they could do. These players are responsible for everything they do to or for their body, including everything they put into it. Stop blaming others for things you should be responsible for.  Many of these players, unfortunately, did get addicted to these painkillers and it ruined their life. They went bankrupt trying to afford the pills and some even ended up on the streets because of it. As sad as this is, I have no sympathy.

Bankrupt players suing the NFL...money grab?  Sure seems like it.

You can believe the motive behind the lawsuit is fueled by financial reasons or not, that's your choice. But one thing, in my opinion, cannot be debated and that is that these players refuse and still refuse to take ownership of THIER actions. They refuse to take responsibility and accountability for things they did or things they should have done but failed to do. Shame on you. Shame on you for trying to take another shot at a sport I enjoy so very much.

-Ryan Reeber

SSFFL: Year of Change

First off, I apologize for letting so much time pass since I've last written about the Star and Stripes Fantasy Football League. This is America's premier fantasy football league, and I haven't been giving it its proper due. So, for that I am sorry and I'll try to do better!

As I alluded in the title of this post, I feel like this year was a year of change for the SSFFL. I will say upfront, we have many of the league constants: Zach and Jamie at (or near) the top of their divisions, Mike Snyder missing the playoffs, Zach once again playing in the championship, and half of us running out of IR slots midway through the season. However, a lot of things were different for us this year, whether it was by design or just the way things played out.

This year we added two new members (Amanda and Andy) to the league. Going from 10 to 12 teams was not an insignificant change to the league dynamics, as many of the waiver wire skimmers have discovered. Our defending champion (sorry Becky!) is fighting to avoid going from best to worst finish in the league. Our regular season schedules are division centric, and as a result, the playoff structures have also been altered to reflect this. The Stripes Division beat the Stars Division this year for the first time! 

Also, I think there have been some accomplishments worth bringing up:

• Ashley has really turned her team around. Ever since the draft two years ago, she has really improved her team and has been a tough match-up for everyone.
• Andy made the playoffs starting a team from scratch in a league in which owners can keep up to 7 players! 
• Mike Snyder really deserves credit for fighting it out for the entire season. He has another rough start and his team looked like it was heading towards the crapper as usual, but he hung in there and nearly made the playoffs!

Oh yea... let's not forget about the Championship Game!!!! Zach and Ashley duke it out for all the marbles! Zach is a regular to the Championship, making his third appearance in the four-year league history... how's that for consistency? Ashley is making her first appearance in the championship and is hoping to bring the Stars and Stripes Trophy from Hilliard to Beavercreek. Good luck to you both!!!!

Thanks everyone for a great, fun, and competitive season! 

Football Blitz VI

An Ugly Rivalry Win?

Is there such thing as an ugly rivalry win? Yes and no. It depends on the circumstances. What is the history of the rivalry? How bad is the team you barely beat? In rivalry games such as Ohio State v michigan, the Ironbowl, Duke v UNC in basketball, and other top rivalries not mentioned hear, you can throw records and rank out the window. It doesn't matter if Team A is undefeated and Team B is in the gutter. When you give Team B one shot to turn a terrible year into a successful one, anything can happen. Teams and fans who live in this top-notch rivalries know this, and I do not need to harp on this. If you are a part of one of these rivalries, you get it. If you are not, then you believe OSU's 42-41 victory over michigan was an indication of how terrible Ohio State really is. The fact is, OSU's defense did not play well, however, a lot of that was due to michigan playing its best game of the year... by far. Highly motivated, highly impassioned rivalries cannot be measured and calculated on paper. You just have to play. And Team A better not overlook Team B, or Team A will be left wondering how their season went down the drain in a single game.

Who’s Number Two?

After a thrilling weekend in NCAA Football, only two undefeated teams in automatic qualifying (AQ) conferences remain. So, the teams who should play for the title is crystal clear, right? Well, not for some. Florida St. and Ohio State are the undefeated teams and are currently ranked #1 and #2, respectively, in the latest BCS polls. One more week of football remains: Conference Championships. There is a growing contingent that believe if Auburn (who just knocked previously ranked #1 Alabama) win the SEC title game, then they should jump OSU and land the #2 spot.

This would be unprecedented. We’ve seen a one-loss team jump another one-loss team in the final week (2006: Florida jumping michigan). We’ve also seen an undefeated team from an AQ conference left out of the BCS Championship game, but only because there were two other undefeated teams ranked ahead of Auburn. If Ohio State and Florida State both win their respective conference championships, they deserve to play in the National Championship game. Is the schedule tougher in the SEC? Yes. But let’s not get carried away here. The SEC is not significantly better to the point where we can just forget about a loss and ignore an Ohio State team, whom, if they beat Michigan State, will have won 25 straight games. The Big  Ten may be experiencing a down year, but we are not talking about little sisters of the poor. According to Jeff Sagarin’s NCAAF rankings, Auburn is 3-1 against top 30 teams. Ohio State is 2-0. Not a vast difference to justify leap-frogging an undefeated team.

Auburn’s athletic director is in full campaign mode, stating that it would be un-American if Auburn didn’t get the chance to play for the title. Really? Sounds absurd to me. Auburn had a chance to run the table and failed.

A little side note, maybe we should be asking: Who’s number one? It’s funny how everyone is criticizing the Buckeye’s strength of schedule, but no one mentions Florida State’s. Again, according to Jeff Sagarin’s rankings, OSU strength of schedule is slightly better than FSU (61^st vs 66^th), and FSU’s record against top 30 teams: 1-0. If folks swinging from the balls of the SEC want to leap-frog an undefeated school... they might be barking up the wrong tree. Also, for even more FSU title discuss, see Zach Howard's post.

Punishment for Tomlin

In case you missed it, Jacoby Jones (BAL) was racing down the sideline during a kick return. He had just one man to beat. Or so he thought. Mike Tomlin, coach of Pittsburgh, was walking the sideline, inches from the field of play. The replay clearly shows Jones swerve inward, towards the one Steeler defender left to beat, in order to avoid hitting Coach Tomlin. The Steeler defender was then able to tackle him, saving a kick return TD.

Did this cost Baltimore the game? No, they eventually won. But this would have most likely have put the game out of reach. Is it a certainty that Jones would have scored if he didn’t have to swerve around Tomlin? No. It would have been a close, diving effort for the Pittsburgh defender.

I will say, however, this is not small potatoes. A coach clearly interfered with the game. The last time a coach interfered with an outcome of a play (Jets O-line coach tripping an opposing player), he was fired. While Tomlin did not make contact, he did change Jones’ action on the field and quite possibly an outcome of a scoring play. There is talk of a rather large punishment, including a six-figure fine and/or a loss of a Steeler draft pick.

Is this too far for the league? Not in my opinion. I believe the NFL needs to avoid this behavior at all costs. And a heavy punishment would be just the dissuasion needed.

A similar incident recently occurred in the NBA. Nets coach Jason Kidd purposely spilled his soda during the last 30 seconds of a game in order to get a play called and having no timeouts. The NBA let him off with a slap on the wrist, $50,000 fine. That’s a lot of money, but not to him. That is not dissuasion. Let’s hope the NFL provides it’s league with a better definition of dissuasion.

Where are the Silver Bullets?

Will the real Ohio State defense please stand up? I’ve been railing the OSU defense all season long. As I’ve written previously, I believe the Buckeye’s defense has the capability to play great and shutdown their opponents. However, we just haven’t seen it consistently... and in many games, not at all. Ohio State’s D has given up 41 points to michigan, 35 points to Illinois, 34 points to Cal, and 20 points to Buffalo. While the offense has been dominated, and sometimes downright unstoppable, the defense has let the team down. It hasn’t come to a loss, however, it might come to a loss of a National Championship chance. The perception of the Buckeye’s strength of schedule is low, therefore, the nation is expecting OSU to be blowing out their competition if they are a legitimate title contender. Because the defense is giving up so many points, the Buckeyes are not winning too many games in a convincing manner.

If OSU can defeat Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship, the defense MUST play better in order for the Buckeyes to have a chance at being #1 when it’s all over.

Why Florida State won’t play for a National Championship

By Zachary Howard

Florida State’s football team has been dominant this year.  They are undefeated at 11-0 and sit comfortably at #2 in the BCS standings.  They will almost certainly win their last two games to finish 13-0 before the final BCS rankings come out.  But they won’t play for a National Championship.  Jameis Winston has been superb at QB for the Seminoles this season.  He is widely considered the frontrunner for the Heisman award.  And he may very well be the most outstanding player in college football this year.  But he won’t win it.

When voters fill out their Heisman ballots and make their final BCS selections, the issue that will be on people’s minds will have nothing to do with football, when it comes to Winston and Florida State.  The factor that will keep Winston from winning the Heisman and stop Florida State from reaching the National Championship will be allegations against Winston from something that happened off the field last December.  The reality is that he is being accused of rape, a very serious matter which obviously transcends football, championships, and trophies.  The problem is that when voters need to make a decision about Winston and the Seminoles, there will be no clarity on the rape case.  It is unlikely that Winston will be charged before the final BCS standings come, if at all.  Same for when the Heisman ballots are due.  Without knowing how all of this will play out, voters in both cases will have a hard time keeping their choice really just about the football, and the question is: should they?  The Heisman Trophy’s mission statement is to recognize the “outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity.”  The last part is key.  Has Jameis Winston shown integrity?  It’s entirely possible that he didn’t do anything wrong and will never even be charged with a crime.  On the other hand, he may have committed rape.  Whether he is charged or not, the truth may never be known.  The only two people who know for certain are Winston and the accuser, making it his word against hers.  While it would be an incredible injustice to Winston if he really is innocent, and still loses out on the Heisman and a National Championship opportunity, what about the opposite possibility?  What if he is given the most prestigious individual award in college football and leads Florida State to a National Championship, and then it later comes out that he did rape this woman?  Can voters really put his name first on their Heisman ballots knowing that this is a possibility?  Likewise, can voters send a Winston-lead Florida State team to the National Championship, ignoring the moral implications if Winston is later found to be guilty?  Especially if Alabama and Ohio State win out, it will be easier to put those two ahead of Florida State and avoid this dilemma altogether.

They will also need to consider the possibility of Winston being charged and then suspended after the final BCS standings are released, but before the championship game.  A Winston-less Florida State team will not be considered a major contender, and will decrease the quality of the National Championship game.  Worst-case scenario, Alabama and Florida State finish the season in the top two spots, but Jameis Winston is charged and can’t play.  If Alabama blows out Florida State, the victory will be not be given credibility as a matchup of the top two teams in the country.  It will cheapen the win for Alabama and leave everyone with a sour taste in their mouths at the end of the season, forcing the question: “What if?”  While the moral issues weigh more heavily in my mind, I think this will be a major factor for many voters.  A combination of the two will be enough, in my opinion, to keep Florida State out of the championship and prevent Winston from winning the Heisman.  And this should be a reminder to players, fans, coaches, and pundits that sometimes, it’s about more than just the football.

BCS: Who's Number Two?

Week 12 BCS Standings (11 Nov 2013)

Rank     Team           BCS Avg

#1         Alabama      0.9958

#2         Florida St    0.9619

#3         Ohio State   0.8926

#4         Stanford*    0.8689

#5         Baylor         0.8618

*Only team listed above with a loss (to Utah)

The top 5 of the BCS are shown above. As long as all hell doesn't break loose, which has happened recently (see 2007), these are the teams with a viable chance at playing for the National Championship this year. Remember, this is the last year for the current BCS format, in which the top 2 teams play for the title. A more detailed list of teams and poll breakdown in the current BCS standings can be found here (note: the Week 12 standings are discussed in this post).

The Case for #2

First thing is first: there probably won't be much argument around the country about who deserves to be ranked #1 in the BCS. Alabama is the two-time defending champion. They are playing very good football right now, fresh off a dominant performance against LSU, pulling away in the second half. But who is #2? I'll make the case for the Buckeyes:

I've been tough on the Buckeye's defense this year. I've written more than a few times how the OSU defense was not playing like a top 10 unit, and how it would have to improve for OSU to live up to the preseason hype. Even though the competition has been sub-par of late, the defense has gotten better. Combined with the potent offense and examining the other undefeated teams vying for the #2 spot, OSU is well rounded enough to earn the second spot in the title game.

I'm taking Stanford out of (my) discussion right off the bat. Yes, they beat Oregon (Thanks, by the way!). However, this does not erase the loss to Utah. Especially, if the other currently undefeated teams win out and win their conferences. Double especially if they have to play a conference championship game to do it (sorry Baylor). 

Another common criticism against the Buckeyes is their strength of schedule (SOS). That's a fair point. The Big Ten is experiencing another down year and isn't highly looked upon right now. However, to use that argument solely against OSU would be an oversight. If you are going to bring up SOS, look it up for everyone. According to the Sagarin Rankings (which is used for the computer component in the BCS rankings), the Buckeyes have 81st best SOS (there are 120 teams in the FBS). Not good. However, the rest of the undefeated teams in the top 5 aren't that impressive either: Alabama-42, Florida St-62, Baylor-96. Not exactly impressive all the way around. Particular among the teams vying for the #2 spot... there is not enough of a differentiator here.

How about big wins? Florida St has wins over then-ranked #3 Clemson and #7 Miami. The Buckeyes have wins over then-ranked #23 Wisconsin and #16 Northwestern. Although, NW has tanked since, the Badgers look to be improving since playing OSU. Baylor has defeated then-ranked #10 Oklahoma. Up coming games: FSU has Flordia the ACC title game. OSU will play at michigan and probably Michigan St in the Big Ten Championship Game. Baylor has Oklahoma State and Texas on the schedule.

I do not see any legitimate, compelling, overwhelming evidence that any of these three teams should be decisively ranked #2 over the others. Right now, it's based solely on perception. The Big Ten is perceived to be down, so that hurts the Buckeyes chances. Not many pollsters bought into Baylor early on, so they are suffering from beginning the season ranked lower than OSU and FSU. Florida St has a few flashy wins on a big stage, which has them as the solid, nearly-undisputed #2 team right now. I respect those who have the opinion that FSU is #2, however, I strongly disagree at the suggestion that it's a slam dunk. One thing in the Buckeye's favor is, in my opinion, the winning streak dating back to last year. Yes, you have to be careful when factoring in last year's performance into this season, but answer this: Do you think the fact that Alabama being ranked undisputed #1 has anything to do with the fact that it is the two-time defending champion? Is part of the Big Ten's perception problems last year's bowl performance? I believe the answer to these question is, to some degree, yes. Therefore, why not consider (if even a small fraction in the total decision) that fact that the Buckeyes have been tested for the past two years, and if OSU finishes undefeated this year, they will be 25-0. 

BCS Prediction

What is going happen in the last month of the season? There is a lot of football to be played, a lot of losses to be dealt. I believe that we will have two undefeated teams at the end of the year. Here's my (somewhat?) bold prediction: Alabama loses one game, either to Auburn or in the SEC title game. Baylor will lose at least one game. Stanford--even though at of my discussion cannot be discounted in the BCS--will lose at least one game. Ohio State and Florida St, the only undefeated teams left, will play for the National Championship.

Final Irony

One last thing to keep in mind: Who should Buckeye fans be rooting against? Obviously, both teams ranked above OSU (Alabama and FSU). But what about Stanford and Baylor? Conventional wisdom might be to root against both of those teams as well, but let's take a closer look.

If you've ever watched a race (whether is NASCAR or what ever your preference), the best thing for your favorite driver nearing the end of the race when he has the lead is the two guys behind him jockeying for second. Neither of the runner-up drivers can run the line they'd prefer to on the track, and the guy in first pulls away from the pack.

Well, that's the situation right now for #4 Stanford and #5 Baylor. Baylor is favored in the human polls, while Stanford is favored above Baylor in the computers. If Baylor were to lose, one would assume that the voters (who put Stanford #5 and Baylor #4) would then vote Stanford #4, thus giving them a better human poll component in the BCS average. How much better? If you simply give Stanford the human poll values that Baylor is receiving right now at #4, then Stanford's overall BCS avg rises to 0.8918, just eight-thousandths shy of OSU. Too close for comfort, if you ask me.

Ohio State fans would rather both lose (obviously). But if they won't both lose, then they need Baylor and Stanford to jockey for position. Split the points up among two teams, rather than let one retain them all (particularly Stanford, who at the time of this post is better positioned to creep up on the Buckeyes).

MLB Post-Season Wrap-up

Below I have posted the results of the MLB playoffs. My picks, based solely on my MLB rankings, are compared to the results. Overall, my rankings did a fairly decent job of predicting the outcomes. Correct picks are in green, incorrect picks in red. I successfully picks the World Series match-up. Andy while I had St. Louis winning the championship in 7, Boston actually won in 6. The World Series and the AL Divisional Series between Detroit and Oakland were the only series that I missed.

The World Series had a few unique game ending moments. One in particular was the first ever walk-off obstruction call in World Series history. If you missed the play, you can see the video here and see/read the rule explained here. I'd like to get your take on the play and the call. Was the right call made? In my opinion, yes. The way I interpret the rule, the intent of the obstructing player does not matter. The two questions are: Does he have the ball? Is he impeding the runner? If he doesn't have the ball and he is impeding the runner, that is interference. (A side note: I believe there was intent to interfere as well. If you watch the video, you will see the third baseman's legs raise in the air as the runner tries to jump over his hip area.).

Right call? Wrong call? I'd like to hear your thoughts. Although, in the grand scheme of the Series, that game couldn't slow down Big Papi and the Red Sox, who clinched their third World Series Championship in a decade.