NCAA Football Top 25 (after Week 12)

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 12, 22 NOV 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 11, 15 NOV 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

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Highlights in the Top 10:

• The top 3 teams remain unchanged. However, ND moved up to #4 after Oklahoma St was beaten by Baylor. With the win, Baylor cracks the Top 10 for the first time this season.
• Ohio State falls from the top 10 to #14 after losing to now-ranked #6 Michigan St. The win by MSU vaulted them into the top 10, right behind Oklahoma
• Speaking of Oklahoma: The Sooners moved up four spot to #5 after defeating TCU.
• Win a win over #35 Wisconsin, Northwestern also cracks the top 10, making 3 Big Ten teams in the Top 10. michigan (#11) and Ohio State (#14) account for 5 of the Top 14 teams.
• For comparison, the SEC has 3 teams in the Top 15, but 8 teams in the Top 25. 
• The Big 12 has 3 Top 10 teams, and then #18 TCU. 
• The Pac 12's highest ranked team is #15 Stanford, followed by #17 Oregon and #25 Washington St.

My Take:

• With two weeks left, who's in control of their own destiny of reaching my Top 4? 
• Certainly the Top 3: Alabama, Iowa, and Clemson. 
• Notre Dame and Oklahoma each have one game left, with ND ahead by a little over 4.5 points. Oklahoma plays #8 Ok St and ND plays #15 Stanford. My guess is that if ND wins, it will still be slightly ahead of OU, but the gap will definitely close.
• Michigan St controls it's own destiny as well. They are in the driver's seat of the Big Ten East. If they get to the Big Ten Championship and defeat Iowa, they would vault into the Top 4, displacing Iowa.
• Florida could potentially get in to the Top 4 if they are able to defeat Alabama in the SEC championship game. I'd say they are on the bubble of controlling their own destiny because it might depend on who also losses above them.
• Is Ohio State's National Title chances done? No, but it's definitely on life support. Ohio State needs to beat michigan next week, and MSU to lose to PSU just to get to the Big Ten Championship. Then, OSU would have to beat Iowa in the Big Ten championship. Then, that would force the committee to make a very difficult decision. Ohio State could climb in the rankings and regain some respect with back-to-back wins over michigan and Iowa. Could the committee leave a 1 loss Big Ten champion out of the playoffs? Let's look at who would be left at the top if the scenario I described happens. (I'll use my rankings as a list of teams ahead of OSU since the committee's rankings aren't out yet and OSU tends to beat rated lower in my rankings anyways). 
• Alabama or Florida will suffer at least one more loss.
• Iowa, Michigan St, and michigan would suffer at least one loss (as described above)
• Oklahoma or Oklahoma St will suffer at least one more loss
• Northwestern wouldn't even have played in the Big Ten championship game, and they have 2 losses
• A one-loss Navy is not getting in. Sorry.
• I'm also writing a 3-loss Ole Miss off
• That leaves Alabama/Florida winner, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma/Ok St winner, and Baylor
• I'm not going too far out on a limb by saying only one Big 12 team is getting in. So I'll revise that list to: Alabama/Florida winner, Clemson, ND, Big 12 champ.
• That's four teams/groups ahead of Ohio State, for four available slots. There's still hope!
• Here's was the Buckeyes need to do, or have done for them:
• Beat michigan
• Penn St beats MSU
• Beat Iowa
• Alabama lose to Auburn, then beats Florida in SEC championship
• OR Florida lose to Florida St, then beat Alabama
• OR Clemson lose its final reg. season game or to UNC in the ACC championship
• OR Notre Dame loss (damn, I'll never get a chance to root for ND)
• Note: Only one of OU or Ok St can lose (last game left), so Big 12 spot in final four is secured

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Check back when the other rankings are published!

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