NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings
Updated: Week 13, 29 NOV 2015
(Delta Calc'd from Week 12, 22 NOV 2015)
Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.
(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)
- The top 3 teams remain unchanged for the second straight week.
- Notre Dame falls out of the Top 4 to #8 after losing to #6 Stanford (Stanford was ranked #15 last week)
- Ohio State is back in the Top 10 after demolishing michigan!
- Oklahoma is now in the Top 4 after beating Oklahoma St, which fell to #11 after the loss.
- Four Big Ten teams in the Top 10. Add michigan (#17) and that accounts for 5 of the Top 20 teams.
- For comparison, the SEC has 2 teams in the Top 10, and 5 teams in the Top 25 (but the SEC is stronger overall, see below)
- The Big 12 has 1 Top 10 team, and 4 Top 25 teams.
- The Pac 12 has 1 Top 10 team, and 3 Top 25 teams.
My Take:
- With only the conference championships remaining, who controls their own path to reaching my Top 4? Note: this is not to be confused with who is (or who I think should be) in the Committee's Top 4
- Certainly the Top 3: Alabama, Iowa, and Clemson.
- I believe #6 Stanford will pass #4 Oklahoma with a win over #23 USC in the Pac 12 championship game, but it will be close. Too close to say that Oklahoma is in MY Top 4, regardless of the Stanford-USC outcome. So we see the benefit of playing in a conference championship game playing out in my rankings (one extra resume-building game).
- #5 Michigan St controls it's own destiny as well. They are in the driver's seat of the Big Ten East. If they get to the Big Ten Championship and defeat Iowa, they would vault into the Top 4, displacing Iowa.
- To recap, Alabama, Iowa, Clemson, Michigan St, and possibly Stanford. If Oklahoma wants the honor of being including in my final regular season Top 4, they need to root against Stanford in the Pac 12 title game.
- Now that MSU will be representing the Big Ten East in the Big Ten Championship game, is Ohio State's National Title chances done? No, but it's definitely not looking good. Here's last week's Committee rankings:
- #1 Clemson, #2 Alabama, #3 Oklahoma, #4 Iowa, #5 MSU, #6 ND, #7 Baylor, #8 Ohio State, #9 Stanford, #10 michigan, #11 Oklahoma St., #12 Florida, #13 Florida St, #14 UNC
- OSU beat michigan. ND, Baylor, Oklahoma St, and Florida lost. Iowa and MSU will play each other (and we'll assume for this argument that the loser of that game drops below OSU, otherwise, OSU will not get in no matter what. Also, to simplify things, we'll assume MSU wins, but you can reverse the outcome in your head if you want).
- #1 Clemson, #2 Alabama, #3 Oklahoma,
#4 Iowa, #5 MSU,#6 ND,#7 Baylor, #8 Ohio State, #9 Stanford,#10 michigan,#11 Oklahoma St.,#12 Florida, #13 Florida St, #14 UNC - So that leaves 4 teams ranked above Ohio State. However, Stanford was right behind the Buckeyes, and their win over ND may give them a boost to pass OSU, even with one more loss than OSU has. Additionally, Stanford is playing in the Pac 12 title game. If they aren't ranked above OSU this week, they probably will (and should be) if they win the Pac 12 championship against USC.
- Florida St did beat Florida, however FSU already has 2 losses and will not be playing in the ACC title game. They will not jump OSU.
- UNC is another story. They only have one loss, and if they beat #1 Clemson in the ACC title game, probably should pass OSU for the last spot in the Top 4. Their SoS is pretty lousy (and that's whats holding them back, and could work in OSU's favor). However, for the Committee to put a team in the Top 4 above a conference champion, that team has to be "unequivocally" better than the conference champion. So it would be a subject call between OSU and UNC.
- So, the bottom line. OSU needs a fair bit of calamity. The way I see it, the Buckeyes need:
- first and foremost, the loser of the Big Ten championship game to be ranked below them (which might be asking a lot for a team sitting at home not playing in the conference championship),
- then 2 of the following 3 outcomes:
- Alabama to lose to Florida in the SEC title game
- Stanford to lose to USC in the Pac 12 title game
- Clemson to lose to UNC in the ACC title game (however, as discussed above, this has the potential to cause UNC to jump OSU, thus negating this scenario... In that event, OSU would need the two above scenarios to happen also)
- Even if all that happens, should OSU be in the playoffs? Those of you who've spoken with me about the topic of a 4 team playoff know where I stand: We have 5 major conferences. Win your conference to get a shot at the national title. So here OSU is on the outside looking in, and I'm not going change my tune. I still believe you should win your conference to be in the final four. Until they open up to an eight-team playoff, I don't think there is any room for a second team from a conference. Even if a two-loss Stanford or a one-loss UNC team with a miserable SoS gets in ahead of the Buckeyes. With only four teams in the playoffs, I have 3 words: Win. Your. Conference.
- With that said, I am still a passionate fan and I can't help myself. So I am hoping against all hope that the Buckeyes still get in!
Conference Rankings
I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:
Poll Comparison
How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:
Comments? Please share below!
