NFL Rankings
Through Week 17: (5 JAN 2016)
(delta calc'd from Week 16: (29 DEC 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 16: (29 DEC 2015)
Comments? Leave some below!
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Edit to answer Amanda's Question:
Amanda OotenJanuary 8, 2016 at 1:05 PM
Interesting that the Steelers are 4 spots ahead of the Bengals, and the Bengals won the division. Why do you think that is?
My Response: 9 January, 2016
Amanda, great question. First, my rankings do not bias the ratings due to winning a division. Winning a division is determined by win/loss record. If my ratings were a reflection of wins and losses only, we would see the Bengals no lower than #4. We actually see many teams rated below other team with comparatively worse win/loss records, so it is definitely feasible to have a team ranked above another team in the same division that won said division. The question is, why/how does this happen?
The first thing I always check is the strength of schedule (SoS) between the teams I'm comparing. Again, my rankings do not factor in SoS. I actually calculate SoS after I calculate the ratings, However, the quality of opponents does influence how much teams are rewarded for wins and penalized for losses. In this case, the Bengals and Steelers SoS are very similar, so we can throw that out as a discriminating factor.
Another very important factor is recent performance. Rating systems such as mine are influenced more by recent games, rather than old ones (even my NCAAF rankings, which are iterative). This is actually desirable, because a team can really come together (or fall apart) as the season progresses, so you want more recent results to weigh in a little more than games played a relatively long time ago. So let's look at the same standings, but instead of looking at the Week-to-Week deltas, let's look at the deltas from Week 10 through Week 17:
We can see by looking at the "Delta W/L" and "Delta Rating" columns, that the Steelers were 4-2 during that stretch and gained 13.15 points in the ratings. However, Cincinnati had an additional loss during that time (4-3), and lost 1.50 points. Additionally, the Bengal's 4 wins were against lousy competition during that stretch (#31 Browns, #20 Rams, #26 49ers, and #27 Ravens), which won't do much to negate the losses during those weeks. Three wins by the Steelers during that stretch include #3 Broncos, #15 Colts, and the #11 Bengals themselves.
The reason why the Bengals are rated below the Steelers is because Pittsburgh has taken care of business against quality opponents down the stretch. The Steelers are a hot team right now and are dangerous to play. Vegas agrees, by the way: Pittsburgh is favored on the road in Cincinnati! I hope this answers your question!
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Edit to answer Amanda's Question:
Amanda OotenJanuary 8, 2016 at 1:05 PM
Interesting that the Steelers are 4 spots ahead of the Bengals, and the Bengals won the division. Why do you think that is?
My Response: 9 January, 2016
Amanda, great question. First, my rankings do not bias the ratings due to winning a division. Winning a division is determined by win/loss record. If my ratings were a reflection of wins and losses only, we would see the Bengals no lower than #4. We actually see many teams rated below other team with comparatively worse win/loss records, so it is definitely feasible to have a team ranked above another team in the same division that won said division. The question is, why/how does this happen?
The first thing I always check is the strength of schedule (SoS) between the teams I'm comparing. Again, my rankings do not factor in SoS. I actually calculate SoS after I calculate the ratings, However, the quality of opponents does influence how much teams are rewarded for wins and penalized for losses. In this case, the Bengals and Steelers SoS are very similar, so we can throw that out as a discriminating factor.
Another very important factor is recent performance. Rating systems such as mine are influenced more by recent games, rather than old ones (even my NCAAF rankings, which are iterative). This is actually desirable, because a team can really come together (or fall apart) as the season progresses, so you want more recent results to weigh in a little more than games played a relatively long time ago. So let's look at the same standings, but instead of looking at the Week-to-Week deltas, let's look at the deltas from Week 10 through Week 17:
Through Week 17: (5 JAN 2016)
(delta calc'd from Week 10)
We can see by looking at the "Delta W/L" and "Delta Rating" columns, that the Steelers were 4-2 during that stretch and gained 13.15 points in the ratings. However, Cincinnati had an additional loss during that time (4-3), and lost 1.50 points. Additionally, the Bengal's 4 wins were against lousy competition during that stretch (#31 Browns, #20 Rams, #26 49ers, and #27 Ravens), which won't do much to negate the losses during those weeks. Three wins by the Steelers during that stretch include #3 Broncos, #15 Colts, and the #11 Bengals themselves.
The reason why the Bengals are rated below the Steelers is because Pittsburgh has taken care of business against quality opponents down the stretch. The Steelers are a hot team right now and are dangerous to play. Vegas agrees, by the way: Pittsburgh is favored on the road in Cincinnati! I hope this answers your question!
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