NCAA Football Top 25 (after Week 12)

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 12, 22 NOV 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 11, 15 NOV 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

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Highlights in the Top 10:

• The top 3 teams remain unchanged. However, ND moved up to #4 after Oklahoma St was beaten by Baylor. With the win, Baylor cracks the Top 10 for the first time this season.
• Ohio State falls from the top 10 to #14 after losing to now-ranked #6 Michigan St. The win by MSU vaulted them into the top 10, right behind Oklahoma
• Speaking of Oklahoma: The Sooners moved up four spot to #5 after defeating TCU.
• Win a win over #35 Wisconsin, Northwestern also cracks the top 10, making 3 Big Ten teams in the Top 10. michigan (#11) and Ohio State (#14) account for 5 of the Top 14 teams.
• For comparison, the SEC has 3 teams in the Top 15, but 8 teams in the Top 25. 
• The Big 12 has 3 Top 10 teams, and then #18 TCU. 
• The Pac 12's highest ranked team is #15 Stanford, followed by #17 Oregon and #25 Washington St.

My Take:

• With two weeks left, who's in control of their own destiny of reaching my Top 4? 
• Certainly the Top 3: Alabama, Iowa, and Clemson. 
• Notre Dame and Oklahoma each have one game left, with ND ahead by a little over 4.5 points. Oklahoma plays #8 Ok St and ND plays #15 Stanford. My guess is that if ND wins, it will still be slightly ahead of OU, but the gap will definitely close.
• Michigan St controls it's own destiny as well. They are in the driver's seat of the Big Ten East. If they get to the Big Ten Championship and defeat Iowa, they would vault into the Top 4, displacing Iowa.
• Florida could potentially get in to the Top 4 if they are able to defeat Alabama in the SEC championship game. I'd say they are on the bubble of controlling their own destiny because it might depend on who also losses above them.
• Is Ohio State's National Title chances done? No, but it's definitely on life support. Ohio State needs to beat michigan next week, and MSU to lose to PSU just to get to the Big Ten Championship. Then, OSU would have to beat Iowa in the Big Ten championship. Then, that would force the committee to make a very difficult decision. Ohio State could climb in the rankings and regain some respect with back-to-back wins over michigan and Iowa. Could the committee leave a 1 loss Big Ten champion out of the playoffs? Let's look at who would be left at the top if the scenario I described happens. (I'll use my rankings as a list of teams ahead of OSU since the committee's rankings aren't out yet and OSU tends to beat rated lower in my rankings anyways). 
• Alabama or Florida will suffer at least one more loss.
• Iowa, Michigan St, and michigan would suffer at least one loss (as described above)
• Oklahoma or Oklahoma St will suffer at least one more loss
• Northwestern wouldn't even have played in the Big Ten championship game, and they have 2 losses
• A one-loss Navy is not getting in. Sorry.
• I'm also writing a 3-loss Ole Miss off
• That leaves Alabama/Florida winner, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma/Ok St winner, and Baylor
• I'm not going too far out on a limb by saying only one Big 12 team is getting in. So I'll revise that list to: Alabama/Florida winner, Clemson, ND, Big 12 champ.
• That's four teams/groups ahead of Ohio State, for four available slots. There's still hope!
• Here's was the Buckeyes need to do, or have done for them:
• Beat michigan
• Penn St beats MSU
• Beat Iowa
• Alabama lose to Auburn, then beats Florida in SEC championship
• OR Florida lose to Florida St, then beat Alabama
• OR Clemson lose its final reg. season game or to UNC in the ACC championship
• OR Notre Dame loss (damn, I'll never get a chance to root for ND)
• Note: Only one of OU or Ok St can lose (last game left), so Big 12 spot in final four is secured

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Check back when the other rankings are published!

Comments? Please share below!

NCAAF Rankings after Week 11

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 11, 15 NOV 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 10, 8 NOV 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

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Highlights in the Top 10:

• I apologize this is incomplete. I had limited time and just wanted to at least post the ratings.

My Take:

• I apologize this is incomplete. I had limited time and just wanted to at least post the ratings.

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

• I apologize this is incomplete. I had limited time and just wanted to at least post the ratings.

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Comments? Please share below!

NFL Rankings after Week 9

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 09 (10 NOV 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 08: (3 NOV 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!

NCAA Football Top 25 (after Week 10)

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 10, 8 NOV 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 09, 1 NOV 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

.

Highlights in the Top 10:

• Iowa still #1, although #2 Clemson is closing the gap. Iowa's lead over Clemson shrunk 4.43 points to less than 1.5 points.
• Ohio State drops one spot, despite winning and two higher ranked teams losing. Oklahoma St leap (9-0) and Alabama (8-1) jumped past the Buckeyes after wins against #12 TCU and #6 LSU, respectively. LSU dropped from #2 to #6 (still above OSU). Michigan St falls out of the top ten, down to #17, after a loss to #55 Nebraska. The Buckeyes did gain rating points, however, the teams that surpassed them in the polls this week gained more with wins over higher quality opponents. I still believe that if OSU can get through November and win the Big Ten Championship, they will climb into the Top Four.
• ND benefited from LSU's loss to move up to #3, however, Alabama is right behind them. Alabama's win over LSU all but erased the gap between them and ND. I project that if both teams win again next week (ND vs Wake Forest, Alabama at Miss St.), Alabama will surpass ND in the rankings.
• #18 Baylor is undefeated, but has not played very many quality opponents (106/121 SoS). 

My Take:

• It's very clear that higher quality opponents makes a difference. Just look at the one-loss teams ranked above some of the undefeated teams.
• As I've mentioned before, if Ohio State wins out, I definitely project them climbing into the Top 4 of my rankings. Although the match-up against Michigan St. has lost some of its luster, MSU, michigan, and Iowa are all quality opponents for the Buckeyes to play down the stretch.

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Comments? Please share below!

NFL Ratings after Week 8

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 08 (3 NOV 2015)
(delta calc'd from Week 08: (3 NOV 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!

NCAAF Rankings after Week 9

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 09, 1 NOV 2015

(Delta Calc'd from Week 08, 24 OCT 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Okay, so I usually only list the Top 25 Teams, but I got a little excited for the first posting of the rankings this season, so there's the Top 60, just because. At least I didn't post all 713 teams included in my standings (from Division IA, IAA, II, and III).

Highlights in the Top 10:

• Iowa ranked #1? Yep. How is this possible? They've played eight games so far (more than 7-0 LSU), so that gives them a little boost. Also, to this point, they've played the toughest schedule of the undefeated teams. So the opponents that they've beaten help raise Iowa's rating above the competition.
• The biggest surprise to me when I saw the rankings for the first time was #4 Notre Dame. Their only loss came to #2 Clemson, but they have beaten #22 USC, #23 Temple, and #26 Navy. The last two teams don't sounds like power houses, but there only losses came to ND. Also, ND has the #12 toughest Strength of Schedule (SoS) so far.
• Michigan State is currently ranked above Ohio State (both 8-0), largely due to beating higher quality opponents (which can be seen by comparing their SoS and Top 3 Wins). This will sort itself out, as these teams are on a collision course set for 21 Nov.
• Speaking of Ohio State... How can the Undefeated, defending National Champions be ranked outside my Top 4? Well, as I've state before, these rankings are a reflection of what has been accomplished so far THIS season. Let's be honest, the teams the Buckeyes have defeated so far aren't exactly top-notch. After Penn St, OSU's highest ranked opponents that they have beaten so far is #59 Indiana and #60 Western Michigan. The Buckeyes have a more difficult schedule in November, so if they keep winning, they will pass some teams ahead of them, if not all. If they can manage victories over #5 MSU and #15 Michigan, and then potentially #1 Iowa in the Big Ten championship, I projected Ohio State to finish at or near the top of my rankings... definitely in my Top 4.
• #10 TCU is the only Big 12 team ranked in my Top 10. TCU (8-0) and #17 Baylor (7-0) have not gotten to the relatively hard parts of their schedules yet (SoS rank of 77 and 109, respectively), so I expect these teams to rise in the rankings if they keep winning.

My Take:

• It's still early. My ratings are very fluid right now... only nine weeks into the season in which most teams have only played 8 games. It will be interesting to see how teams move up and down in the ratings as the season progresses and we get a better idea of these teams... and as my algorithm gets more information to rate them!

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

Comments? Please share below!

Ooten NCAAF Rankings Details and Explanation

This post is in progress. Please check back soon!

The coaches, media, and now an all-powerful committee of 13 publishes their Top 25 NCAA Football rankings. When you have a field of over 100 Division I-A (FBS) teams and a relatively tiny number of games to judge them by, you will have controversy. Well, I couldn't help myself... so I have applied my rating system to the college football system. This took a little while longer to launch (compared to my NFL and MLB ratings) because of the shear number of teams involved. It's not just the 100+ Div I-A teams, but they play the 100+ Div I-AA teams, and they play the vast Div II teams, and they play the vast amount of Div III. Thanks to really fast computations, I have rated well over 500 NCAAF teams, many of them I haven't heard of before. You can see the latest rankings here: NCAAF Rankings

Behind the Rankings

For the most part, my NCAAF rankings are very similar to my rating systems that I use for my NFL and MLB rankings. So if this text seems familiar, that's because it is! I don't want to get too in depth here into the details of the mathematics behind the ratings. So, I'll keep it relatively simple in this blog, and refer you to a reference where you can dig into it more if you'd like. I use a slightly modified version of Microsoft's TrueSkill ratings system. Why slightly modified? Two reasons: 1) Microsoft wouldn't elaborate on the complex details of competitions involving three or more competitors. 2) Microsoft would give the specific equations of the 'v' and 'w' functions (check the details in the reference if you care), so I had to curve fit.

Issue #2 isn't that big of a detail, my curve fit matches extremely close to their 'v' and 'w' function plots. Issue #1 doesn't effect head-to-head competitions, which cover the vast majority of sporting events, so this does not apply to my NCAAF rankings. For the curious readers out there, I devised a fairly accurate way of simulating their complex methods of three or more competitor events that tracks very closely with their results. With all that said, I'm satisfied with my Matlab version of the TrueSkill Rating system.

I think we can all agree that a team isn't always as good or as bad as their record. Strength of schedule matters. A team can have some very quality wins against a strong opponent, or an embarrassing loss against a poor opponent. From a 30,000 ft view, my NCAAF ratings (again, based on Microsoft's TrueSkill) measures each team based on the quality of opponent they compete against by tracking two parameters for each team: average skill (mu) and a measure of uncertainty of that skill (sigma). Many rating systems only track the "skill" term. By tracking both skill and uncertainty, you can converge to a more accurate representation of a player's (or team's) skill, with a smaller sample size. A team's opponent's skill, uncertainty, and outcome of the event effect that team's recalculated skill and uncertainty. The rating is generated from subtracting three times the uncertainty from the average skill (rating = mu - 3*sigma). This results in a 99% confidence that the team's skill is at or above that rating.

Everything I've mentioned to this point applies to my NFL and MLB ratings also. Where I start to diverge with my NCAAF ratings is the fact that I converge my NCAAF rankings. I do this for NCAAF and not the professional sports because in college sports there can be a huge variation of the quality of teams. Applying an iterative algorithm to the rating system allows learning of each team later in the season to be applied to early season results.

Each year, the teams are started off with the same base rating (or a regression to a base rating), so an early win or loss may not accurately yield the correct points added or subtracted from a team. For example, during the 2014 NCAAF season, Ohio State suffered and early loss to Virginia Tech. In the beginning of the season, these teams are similarly rated, so OSU was not penalized too much for losing to a near-equal team. However, as the season has progressed, Virginia Tech has lost several more games. This indicates that the loss to Virginia Tech was worse than losing to a near-equal team. The iteration process subtracts more points from Ohio State than was originally subtracted. The opposite can occur from an early season win over a team that proves to be high quality. The iterative process applies learning for each team's opponents to that team's rating, which can result in a small fluctuation of a team's rating even during a bye week. Currently, I iterate on the NCAAF ratings until the maximum team convergence is less than 1%.

More details here if you are interested! Microsoft TrueSkill Rating

I'd also be happy to answer questions if you'd rather have someone translate that for you: Post your questions via email or comments on this post and I'll get back to you.