The Case for the Buckeyes

Does Ohio State have a chance of getting into the College Football Playoff?
Yes. The latest rankings released by the CFP Committee last night were not a surprise (Top 10 posted above, you can also look here for my rankings). It doesn't change my opinion of Ohio State's chances making the playoff. 

It will still come down to OSU and Alabama, assuming the Buckeyes win the Big Ten Championship on Saturday. In fact, I will actually make the case that OSU should be in over Alabama, should it come down to those two teams.

Look at what the CFP committee states as what they use to decide if teams are close (in this case, OSU and Alabama), in no particular order: 

• Head to head
• Outcome in common opponents
• Strength of Schedule (SoS)
• Conference championships

Head to head and common opponents would not apply between Ohio State and Alabama. SoS would be in Ohio State's favor, and Ohio State would have the conference championship. Using their criteria, they should pick OSU.

Now, the only exception to not using the criteria listed above if the committee believes the teams are not close. If the CFP committee deems Alabama to be definitively better than OSU, then they will just rank them above the Buckeyes without having to use the criteria. So the question is, can the committee justify and defend that Alabama is definitely better than Ohio State?

The answer is no. Not objectively, from what we've seen on the field this year. Some might argue that Alabama has looked better, or passes the eye test more than the Buckeyes. Or, even that Alabama has better game statistics (offensive and defensive efficiency, game control, etc). This, however, is a subjective argument that could be easily countered by citing the weaker schedule, and arguing that the Buckeyes would look just as good and have improved game statistics by playing weaker competition as well.

Alabama might point to the parallels of their team this year to the 2016 OSU that made the playoffs ahead of PSU, who beat OSU and won the conference. However, recall that those criteria on come in to play when the teams are close. Ohio State had three top-10 wins (according to the CFP final rankings), and only one loss, which was to another top-10 team. The committee, with that body of proof, determined that Ohio State was definitively better than Penn State, and therefore did not need to use the criteria. Alabama does not have the resume this year to make that same case. Which means, if it comes down to Ohio State and Alabama, by the guidelines established by the CFP committee themselves... the choice is clear: Ohio State makes the playoffs.

NCAAF 2017 Rankings after Week 13

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 13, 26 NOV 2017

(Delta Calc'd from Week 12, 19 NOV 2017)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

My rankings aside for a moment (looking at the CFP rankings only): Can Ohio State make the playoffs?

Yes, it is possible. Actually, I argue that is what should happen in my latest post here. 

Ratings Notes:

• Wisconsin moves up to the #1 spot after defeating #75 Minnesota (and Miami losing). Wisconsin is 12-0 and needs a win in the Big Ten title game against #9 Ohio State to remain in my Top 4.
• Clemson rises to #2 and needs to defeat #10 Miami in the ACC championship game to remain in my Top 4.
• UCF takes advantage of 2 of my 3 three losing last week to climb to #3. A win against #16 Memphis would most likely solidify their spot in my Top 4.
• #4 Auburn moves up 6 spots after defeating #7 Alabama. Georgia remains at #5 after taking care of #49 Georgia Tech. The winner of the Auburn/Georgia matchup in the SEC title game will secure their spot in the Top 4.
• Oklahoma is at #6 and needs a win in the Big 12 championship game (against #17 TCU) and likely needs one of the top 3 teams to also lose to get in my Top 4.
• Alabama fell 4 spots to #7 after their loss to Auburn. Without another game to play, they will likely remain out of my Top 4.
• Notre Dame also fell 4 spots after losing to #12 Stanford. Similar to Alabama, ND will not have the opportunity to play another game to get back into my Top 4.
• #9 Ohio State defeats #23 michigan for the sixth straight year, moving up 2 spots. The Buckeyes need a win in the Big Ten championship game and a lot of other losing to get into my Top 4. 
• Miami fell 9 spots to #10. Even with a win against Clemson, I project that they will not make it back into my Top 4. There is just too much of a rating difference to make up in one week.
• Notable Conference Championship Matchups (rankings shown reflect my current standings):
• #1 Wisconsin vs #9 Ohio State
• #2 Clemson vs #10 Miami
• #3 UCF vs #16 Memphis
• #4 Auburn vs #5 Georgia
• #6 Oklahoma vs #17 TCU
• #11 USC vs #12 Stanford
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 2 // 4 
• Big Ten: 2 // 7
• Big 12: 1 // 3
• Pac 12: 0 // 4
• SEC: 3 // 4

Poll Comparison

Conference Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2017 Rankings after Week 12

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 12, 19 NOV 2017

(Delta Calc'd from Week 11, 13 NOV 2017)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

An IMPORTANT NOTE about my ratings: My ratings are completely objective, meaning that they have no biases and are completely statistical. Due to this, when you have an incomplete data set (or an incomplete season), some anomalies can appear. Teams like UCF and Memphis can appear overrated due to the fact they have a good record and, in some cases, have played better competition than the teams ranked just below them. I expect that this will straightened itself out. As the Power 5 conference schools get into the meat of their conference schedules, we will see them gain more credit for wins than UCF and Memphis. Also, as more data become available (more game completed), we will learn more about their opponents. Because my rankings are iterative, this will factor into their rating as well. Bottom line: The dangers of releasing a completely statistical rating system are that you may have some outliers. And that's ok... it will correct itself over time.

Notes:

• #7 UCF?  See my Important Note (above). You will see, however, that UCF had a negative delta rating once again this week, despite winning. This is will continue to occur as the rating system gains more data on their opponents and continues to adjust UCF's ratings accordingly (this is the self-correction I refer to as more data becomes available).
• Ohio State drops to #11 after defeating #109 Illinois. No fault for OSU here, just other teams either playing better competition (USC) or more favorable information about their previous competition (Auburn) that caused their rating to increase more than OSU's did. In fact, the slightly net-negative information from OSU's previous opponent accounted for more than the small positive they got from defeating Illinois, hence the drop in rating from last week despite winning.
• Miami retains the top spot and Wisconsin jumps to #2 after beating #20 michigan.
• Alabama is now ranked #3, followed by #4 Notre Dame.
• Notable Rivalry Week Showdown (rankings shown reflect my current standings):
• #1 Miami @ #83 Pitt
• #2 Wisconsin @ #73 Minnesota
• #3 Alabama @ #10 Auburn
• #4 Notre Dame @ #16 Stanford
• #5 Georgia @ #47 Georgia Tech
• #6 Clemson @ #24 South Carolina
• #44 West Virginia @ #8 Oklahoma
• #11 Ohio State @ #20 michigan
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 2 // 3 
• Big Ten: 1 // 7
• Big 12: 1 // 2
• Pac 12: 1 // 4
• SEC: 3 // 6

Poll Comparison

Conference Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2017 Rankings after Week 11

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 11, 13 NOV 2017

(Delta Calc'd from Week 10, 5 NOV 2017)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

An IMPORTANT NOTE about my ratings: My ratings are completely objective, meaning that they have no biases and are completely statistical. Due to this, when you have an incomplete data set (or an incomplete season), some anomalies can appear. Teams like UCF and Memphis can appear overrated due to the fact they have a good record and, in some cases, have played better competition than the teams ranked just below them. I expect that this will straightened itself out. As the Power 5 conference schools get into the meat of their conference schedules, we will see them gain more credit for wins than UCF and Memphis. Also, as more data become available (more game completed), we will learn more about their opponents. Because my rankings are iterative, this will factor into their rating as well. Bottom line: The dangers of releasing a completely statistical rating system are that you may have some outliers. And that's ok... it will correct itself over time.

Notes:

• #6 UCF?  See my Important Note (above). You will see, however, that UCF had a negative delta rating once again this week, despite winning. This is will continue to occur as the rating system gains more data on their opponents and continues to adjust UCF's ratings accordingly (this is the self-correction I refer to as more data becomes available).
• Ohio State moves to #9 after destroying #13 Michigan State (dropped 5 spots from #8).
• With a win over #3 Notre Dame, Miami jumps to #1.
• ND only drops two spots after losing to Miami, part of that is due to the quality of teams they have played this year: they have the #2 Strength of Schedule.
• Alabama is now ranked #2 (up 3 spots) after a win against #23 Miss St.
• Auburn climbs 8 spots to #11 after defeating #8 George, who fell 6 spots after the loss
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 2 // 3 
• Big Ten: 2 // 7
• Big 12: 1 // 3
• Pac 12: 1 // 4
• SEC: 2 // 5

Poll Comparison

Conference Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!

NCAAF 2017 Rankings after Week 10

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 10, 5 NOV 2017

(Delta Calc'd from Week 9, 30 OCT 2017)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

An IMPORTANT NOTE about my ratings: My ratings are completely objective, meaning that they have no biases and are completely statistical. Due to this, when you have an incomplete data set (or an incomplete season), some anomalies can appear. Teams like UCF and Memphis can appear overrated due to the fact they have a good record and, in some cases, have played better competition than the teams ranked just below them. I expect that this will straightened itself out. As the Power 5 conference schools get into the meat of their conference schedules, we will see them gain more credit for wins than UCF and Memphis. Also, as more data become available (more game completed), we will learn more about their opponents. Because my rankings are iterative, this will factor into their rating as well. Bottom line: The dangers of releasing a completely statistical rating system are that you may have some outliers. And that's ok... it will correct itself over time.

Notes:

• #4 UCF?!  See my Important Note (above). You will see, however, that both UCF and Memphis had a negative delta rating this week, despite both teams winning. This is will continue to occur as the rating system gains more data on their opponents and continues to adjust UCF's and Memphis' ratings accordingly (this is the self-correction I refer to as more data becomes available).
• Ohio State loses to Iowa and drops to #13. With the big win, Iowa rises 12 spots to #15.
• With a win over #26 NC State, Clemson climbs 3 spots to #6.
• USC moves up three spots to #9, which now means #1 ND has 2 top-10 wins.
• Alabama is now ranked #5 (up 3 spots) after a win against #28 LSU. As Alabama plays the meat of their schedule, they will continue to climb.  
• #3 Miami is up 4 spots after defeating #24 VT
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conference:
• ACC: 2 // 3 
• Big Ten: 2 // 7
• Big 12: 1 // 4
• Pac 12: 1 // 3
• SEC: 2 // 4

Poll Comparison

Conference Comparison

As always, please leave questions/comments below! If you would like to see more than just the Top 25, or any ratings for Div I-AA, Div-II, or Div-III, just let me know!