NFL Ratings after Week 8

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 8: (2 NOV 2016)
(delta calc'd from Week 7: (25 OCT 2016)

Comments? Leave some below!

NCAAF Rankings After Week 9

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 9, 31 OCT 2016

(Delta Calc'd from Week 8, 24 OCT 2016)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• You will notice quite a shake up in #5-10, thanks to losses from Boise St., West Virginia, and Tennessee.
• The Buckeyes climb to #5 with a win against #49 Northwestern.
• Note that the Buckeyes moved ahead of PSU with a win over a higher quality opponent. You'll recall, last week OSU and PSU were very closely rated, with Penn St having a slight edge. However, Penn St's win over #102 Purdue did not help to increase their rating too much.
• Washington moved up to the #6 spot with a win over #23 Utah
• #2 Clemson closes the gap on #1 Alabama with a win over #18 Florida St.
• Appalachian State is up to #35 (see below)... look out michigan!
• Top 10 // Top 25  Teams for each conferences:
• ACC: 1// 5
• Big Ten: 4// 5
• Big 12: 1// 2
• Pac 12: 1// 5
• SEC: 3// 6

Poll Comparison

• ((Updated to include the College Football Playoff Rankings))
• My rankings and the Committee's rankings actually very closely aligned:
• Our top 4 are identical (and in the same order)
• #5 and #6 are flipped
• My rankings have Auburn at #7 rather than #9.
• The committee has Louisville at #7 (they are #11 in my rankings)
• We are one spot off on Wisconsin
• I have Penn St at #8 and the Committee has them at #12 (the other human polls rank PSU much lower)
• The biggest difference is that I have Western Michigan as #10 (#23 in the Committee's rankings)
• The AP and Coaches polls are really high on Florida (#9/10) compared to my ratings (#22). 
• According to my ratings, Florida Top 3 wins are against Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Georgia.
• Also, Penn St is #9 in my ratings while the AP and Coaches polls have them at 20
• Another difference is that I have Louisville just outside my Top 10 at #11, while the AP and Coaches polls have UL at #5.

NCAA Football Ratings after Week 08

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 8, 24 OCT 2016

(Delta Calc'd from Week 7, 17 OCT 2016)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• The Buckeyes loss to #9 Penn St. drops them to #10 in this weeks ratings. (Last week, Penn St was at #24 in my ratings, while not even receiving any votes from the human polls).
• Ohio State still controls it own destiny, championship included... It's just that the Buckeyes has zero margin for error now.
• If the Buckeye win out, they will win the Big Ten East (yes, we will win tie-breakers against michigan and Penn St too, if necessary, assuming OSU wins out).
• A one-loss OSU team that is also the Big Ten champion will get into the playoffs.
• Texas A&M falls one spot to #4 after its loss to #1 Alabama
• Appalachian State is up to #35 (see below)... look out michigan!
• A relatively weak schedule to-date is keeping undefeated #11 Washington and  #15 Nebraska out of the top 10.

Poll Comparison

• As noted above, my ratings do not have undefeated Washington nor Nebraska in the Top 10 due to their relatively weak SoS. As they move deeper into conference play (and assuming they win), they will see a bump in their ratings as they play higher quality opponents.
• My ratings "punished" OSU's loss to (then #24) Penn St. more than the human polls, while at the same time, my ratings were more lenient to Texas A&M's loss to #1 Alabama.
• Also, Penn St is #9 in my ratings while the human polls have them in the 20's.

For those of you with more of an appetite for ratings, here's #31-#60  (and if you want the whole list, including D-IAA (FCS), Div II, and/or Div III, just let me know!

NFL Rankings after Week 07

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 7: (25 OCT 2016)
(delta calc'd from Week 6: (18 OCT 2016)

Comments? Leave some below!

NCAA Football Rankings after Week 7

NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings

Updated: Week 7, 17 OCT 2016

(Delta Calc'd from Week 6, 10 OCT 2016)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

Notes:

• The Buckeyes come in just behind michigan at #5 with a big win over Wisconsin. OSU has a good chance at increasing their position with a win at Penn St this week.
• #1 Alabama and #3 Texas Tech play each other this week! The winner will no doubt solidify their spot atop the rankings (for the time being... at least!)
• WTH is Western Michigan doing at #6 when the human polls have them at #20? Is okay... it's still early. Their wins looks relatively good right now because their opponents haven't had the proper time to fall yet. Keep in mind, these rankings are based on what each team has accomplished, not perception!

NCAAF Rankings - Final

2015 FINAL NCAA Football Top 25 Rankings 

Updated: After all bowls, playoffs, etc: 12 JAN 2016

(Delta Calc'd from Week 15, 13 DEC 2015)

(Click here for a more detailed explanation of my NCAAF rating system)

Some of these rankings my surprise you, but keep in mind that there is no bias towards any team or preconceived notions, and the only thing considered is what each team has accomplished so far.

(For those viewing from a phone, tap the rankings and rotate to enlarge)

.

Highlights in the Top 10:

• No surprise here. My 2015 National Champion is Alabama
• Followed by #2 Clemson, #3 Stanford, #4 Michigan St, and #5 The Ohio State University
• The Big Ten has 3 teams in the Top 10, and 5 Top 25 teams.
• After a good bowl season, the SEC has 3 teams in the Top 10, and 8 teams in the Top 25 
• The Big 12 has 2 Top 10 team, and 4 Top 25 teams. 
• The Pac 12 has 1 Top 10 team, and 2 Top 25 teams. 
• The ACC has 1 Top 10 team, and 3 Top 25 teams

Conference Rankings

I struggle with how to rate the conferences based on my ratings. I'm not convinced a simple average of the conference's teams really does the conference justice. But until I come up with a better way, that's the method I post below:

Poll Comparison

How do my rankings compare to the other polls? I'm glad you asked:

• My top 3 is the same as both human polls.
• Houston, #8 in both the AP and Coaches poll, finished just outside my top ten, at number 11.

Comments? Please share below!

NFL Rankings after Week 17

NFL Rankings 

Through Week 17: (5 JAN 2016)
(delta calc'd from Week 16: (29 DEC 2015)

Comments? Leave some below!


------------------------------------------------------
Edit to answer Amanda's Question:
Amanda OotenJanuary 8, 2016 at 1:05 PM
Interesting that the Steelers are 4 spots ahead of the Bengals, and the Bengals won the division. Why do you think that is?

My Response: 9 January, 2016
Amanda, great question. First, my rankings do not bias the ratings due to winning a division. Winning a division is determined by win/loss record. If my ratings were a reflection of wins and losses only, we would see the Bengals no lower than #4. We actually see many teams rated below other team with comparatively worse win/loss records, so it is definitely feasible to have a team ranked above another team in the same division that won said division. The question is, why/how does this happen?

The first thing I always check is the strength of schedule (SoS) between the teams I'm comparing. Again, my rankings do not factor in SoS. I actually calculate SoS after I calculate the ratings, However, the quality of opponents does influence how much teams are rewarded for wins and penalized for losses. In this case, the Bengals and Steelers SoS are very similar, so we can throw that out as a discriminating factor.

Another very important factor is recent performance. Rating systems such as mine are influenced more by recent games, rather than old ones (even my NCAAF rankings, which are iterative). This is actually desirable, because a team can really come together (or fall apart) as the season progresses, so you want more recent results to weigh in a little more than games played a relatively long time ago. So let's look at the same standings, but instead of looking at the Week-to-Week deltas, let's look at the deltas from Week 10 through Week 17:

Through Week 17: (5 JAN 2016)

(delta calc'd from Week 10)

We can see by looking at the "Delta W/L" and "Delta Rating" columns, that the Steelers were 4-2 during that stretch and gained 13.15 points in the ratings. However, Cincinnati had an additional loss during that time (4-3), and lost 1.50 points. Additionally, the Bengal's 4 wins were against lousy competition during that stretch (#31 Browns, #20 Rams, #26 49ers, and #27 Ravens), which won't do much to negate the losses during those weeks. Three wins by the Steelers during that stretch include #3 Broncos, #15 Colts, and the #11 Bengals themselves.

The reason why the Bengals are rated below the Steelers is because Pittsburgh has taken care of business against quality opponents down the stretch. The Steelers are a hot team right now and are dangerous to play. Vegas agrees, by the way: Pittsburgh is favored on the road in Cincinnati! I hope this answers your question!